tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-32407872930462209502024-03-22T07:48:55.329+08:00It's just me...Anything relevant.Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.comBlogger248125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-73195391791822126552013-12-31T12:43:00.001+08:002014-03-23T23:21:39.166+08:00How would the table look by May 2014?<b><u>January 2014 (actual scores in bracket)</u></b><br />
Swansea City 1-3 Manchester City (1-3)<br />
Arsenal 4-0 Cardiff City (2-0)<br />
Crystal Palace 1-0 Norwich City (1-1)<br />
Fulham 2-2 West Ham United (2-1)<br />
Liverpool 3-1 Hull City Tigers (2-0)<br />
Southampton 1-1 Chelsea (0-3)<br />
Stoke City 1-2 Everton (1-1)<br />
Sunderland 2-1 Aston Villa (0-1)<br />
West Bromwich Albion 1-3 Newcastle United (1-0)<br />
Manchester United 2-2 Tottenham Hotspur (1-2)<br />
<br />
Hull City Tigers 2-2 Chelsea (0-2)<br />
Cardiff City 2-1 West Ham United (0-2)<br />
Everton 3-0 Norwich City (2-0)<br />
Fulham 1-1 Sunderland (1-4)<br />
Southampton 3-1 West Bromwich Albion (1-0)<br />
Tottenham Hotspur 4-1 Crystal Palace (2-0)<br />
Manchester United 2-1 Swansea City (2-0)<br />
Newcastle United 1-1 Manchester City (0-2)<br />
Stoke City 1-3 Liverpool (3-5)<br />
Aston Villa 1-2 Arsenal (1-2)<br />
<br />
Sunderland 2-1 Southampton (2-2)<br />
Arsenal 3-1 Fulham (2-0)<br />
Crystal Palace 2-1 Stoke City (1-0)<br />
Manchester City 6-0 Cardiff City (4-2)<br />
Norwich City 1-2 Hull City Tigers (1-0)<br />
West Ham United 1-2 Newcastle United (1-3)<br />
Liverpool 3-1 Aston Villa (2-2)<br />
Swansea City 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur (1-3)<br />
Chelsea 3-1 Manchester United (3-1)<br />
West Bromwich Albion 0-2 Everton (1-1)<br />
<br />
Manchester United 3-0 Cardiff City (2-0)<br />
Norwich City 2-2 Newcastle United (0-0)<br />
Southampton 1-1 Arsenal (2-2)<br />
Sunderland 2-1 Stoke City (1-0)<br />
Swansea City 2-2 Fulham (2-0)<br />
Crystal Palace 1-1 Hull City Tigers (1-0)<br />
Liverpool 2-2 Everton (4-0)<br />
Aston Villa 2-1 West Bromwich Albion (4-3)<br />
Chelsea 3-0 West Ham United (0-0)<br />
Tottenham Hotspur 2-2 Manchester City (1-5)<br />
<br />
<u>Actual league table @ 30.01.2014</u> (points prediction in bracket)<br />
1. Manchester City 53 pts (49)<br />
2. Arsenal 52 pts (52)<br />
3. Chelsea 50 pts (48)<br />
4. Liverpool 46 pts (46)<br />
5. Tottenham Hotspur 43 pts (40)<br />
6. Everton 42 pts (47)<br />
7. Manchester United 40 pts (41)<br />
8. Newcastle United 37 pts (41)<br />
9. Southampton 32 pts (32)<br />
10. Aston Villa 27 pts (23)<br />
11. Swansea City 24 pts (23)<br />
12. Norwich City 24 pts (20)<br />
13. Hull City Tigers 23 pts (28)<br />
14. Crystal Palace 23 pts (23)<br />
15. West Bromwich Albion 22 pts (18)<br />
16. Stoke City 22 pts (21)<br />
17. Sunderland 21 pts (24)<br />
18. West Ham United 19 pts (16)<br />
19. Fulham 19 pts (19)<br />
20. Cardiff City 18 pts (21)<br />
<br />
Over-achieved (9):<br />
Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, Swansea City, Norwich City, West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City, West Ham United<br />
<br />
On par (5):<br />
Arsenal, Liverpool, Southampton, Crystal Palace, Fulham<br />
<br />
Under-achieved (6):<br />
Everton, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Hull City Tigers, Sunderland, Cardiff City<br />
<br />
Considering that I thought Everton is a top-4 side, actual results seemed to have gone against them, hence making Liverpool the favourite to clinch the final spot in the UCL. Manchester City is looking like title favourites in the form they've shown, hence Wenger may come up short again, but surely not without a fight considering that Draxler may be going to Arsenal.<br />
<br />
<b><u>February 2014</u></b><br />
West Ham United 2-1 Swansea City (2-0)<br />
Cardiff City 1-1 Norwich City (2-1)<br />
Everton 3-2 Aston Villa (2-1)<br />
Fulham 1-2 Southampton (0-3)<br />
Hull City Tigers 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur (1-1)<br />
Newcastle United 2-2 Sunderland (0-3)<br />
Stoke City 1-2 Manchester United (2-1)<br />
West Bromwich Albion 0-3 Liverpool (1-1)<br />
Arsenal 3-0 Crystal Palace (2-0)<br />
Manchester City 3-1 Chelsea (0-1)<br />
<br />
Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (5-1)<br />
Aston Villa 1-1 West Ham United (0-2)<br />
Chelsea 2-1 Newcastle United (3-0)<br />
Crystal Palace 1-2 West Bromwich Albion (3-1)<br />
Norwich City 0-4 Manchester City (0-0)<br />
Southampton 2-1 Stoke City (2-2)<br />
Sunderland 1-1 Hull City Tigers (0-2)<br />
Swansea City 2-1 Cardiff City (3-0)<br />
Tottenham Hotspur 2-2 Everton (1-0)<br />
Manchester United 3-1 Fulham (2-2)<br />
<br />
Cardiff City 2-1 Aston Villa (0-0)<br />
Hull City Tigers 1-1 Southampton (0-1)<br />
West Ham United 2-1 Norwich City (2-0)<br />
West Bromwich Albion 1-3 Chelsea (1-1)<br />
Arsenal 3-1 Manchester United (0-0)<br />
Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace (postponed)<br />
Manchester City 3-0 Sunderland (postponed)<br />
Newcastle United 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur (0-4)<br />
Stoke City 1-2 Swansea City (1-1)<br />
Fulham 0-4 Liverpool (2-3)<br />
<br />
Chelsea 2-2 Everton (1-0)<br />
Arsenal 3-0 Sunderland (4-1)<br />
Cardiff City 2-1 Hull City Tigers (0-4)<br />
Manchester City 4-0 Stoke City (1-0)<br />
West Bromwich Albion 2-2 Fulham (1-1)<br />
West Ham United 1-2 Southampton (3-1)<br />
Crystal Palace 1-2 Manchester United (0-2)<br />
Liverpool 3-1 Swansea City (4-3)<br />
Newcastle United 2-1 Aston Villa (1-0)<br />
Norwich City 1-3 Tottenham Hotspur (1-0)<br />
<br />
<b><u>March 2014</u></b><br />
Aston Villa 2-1 Norwich City (4-1)<br />
Everton 3-1 West Ham United (1-0)<br />
Fulham 2-3 Chelsea (1-3)<br />
Hull City Tigers 1-1 Newcastle United (1-4)<br />
Manchester United 1-3 Manchester City (postponed)<br />
Southampton 2-1 Liverpool (0-3)<br />
Stoke City 0-3 Arsenal (1-0)<br />
Sunderland 1-2 West Bromwich Albion (postponed)<br />
Swansea City 3-1 Crystal Palace (1-1)<br />
Tottenham Hotspur 4-0 Cardiff City (1-0)<br />
<br />
Arsenal 3-1 Swansea City (postponed)<br />
Cardiff City 1-2 Fulham (3-1)<br />
Chelsea 3-1 Tottenham Hotspur (4-0)<br />
Crystal Palace 1-1 Southampton (0-1)<br />
Liverpool 3-1 Sunderland (postponed)<br />
Manchester City 5-0 Aston Villa (postponed)<br />
Newcastle United 1-1 Everton (postponed)<br />
Norwich City 1-0 Stoke City (1-1)<br />
West Bromwich Albion 1-3 Manchester United (0-3)<br />
West Ham United 2-1 Hull City Tigers (postponed)<br />
<br />
<u>Actual league table @ 15.03.2014</u> (points prediction in bracket)<br />
1. Chelsea 66 pts (61)<br />
2. Liverpool 59 pts (59)<br />
3. Arsenal 59 pts (68)<br />
4. Manchester City 57 pts (67)<br />
5. Tottenham Hotspur 53 pts (48)<br />
6. Manchester United 48 pts (53)<br />
7. Everton 48 pts (59)<br />
8. Newcastle United 43 pts (50)<br />
9. Southampton 42 pts (46)<br />
10. West Ham United 31 pts (26)<br />
11. Aston Villa 31 pts (27)<br />
12. Stoke City 31 pts (21)<br />
13. Hull City Tigers 30 pts (32)<br />
14. Swansea City 29 pts (32)<br />
15. Norwich City 29 pts (24)<br />
16. Crystal Palace 27 pts (24)<br />
17. West Bromwich Albion 25 pts (25)<br />
18. Cardiff City 25 pts (28)<br />
19. Sunderland 24 pts (26)<br />
20. Fulham 21 pts (23)<br />
<br />
It's hard to get a clear picture due to the international break and the League Cup final, causing in the postponements in some of the games till much later dates. Anyhow, I don't know why I'm predicting a Manchester United win when Liverpool are looking like title contenders with SAS in their ranks. Anyhow, I ain't gonna change my prediction, but reality may bite.<br />
<br />
Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea (1-0)<br />
Everton 3-0 Cardiff City (2-1)<br />
Fulham 2-1 Newcastle United (1-0)<br />
Hull City Tigers 1-1 Manchester City (0-2)<br />
Manchester United 2-1 Liverpool (0-3)<br />
Southampton 3-0 Norwich City (4-2)<br />
Stoke City 2-1 West Ham United (3-1)<br />
Sunderland 1-1 Crystal Palace (0-0)<br />
Swansea City 2-2 West Bromwich Albion (1-2)<br />
Tottenham Hotspur 2-4 Arsenal (0-1)<br />
<br />
Aston Villa 1-2 Stoke City<br />
Cardiff City 0-5 Liverpool (3-6)<br />
Chelsea 2-1 Arsenal (6-0)<br />
Everton 2-1 Swansea City (3-2)<br />
Hull City Tigers 3-1 West Bromwich Albion (2-0)<br />
Manchester City 6-0 Fulham (5-0)<br />
Newcastle United 3-0 Crystal Palace (1-0)<br />
Norwich City 1-0 Sunderland (2-0)<br />
Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 Southampton (3-2)<br />
West Ham United 1-3 Manchester United (0-2)<br />
<br />
Arsenal 2-3 Manchester City<br />
Crystal Palace 0-2 Chelsea<br />
Fulham 0-2 Everton<br />
Liverpool 2-2 Tottenham Hotspur<br />
Manchester United 3-0 Aston Villa<br />
Southampton 3-1 Newcastle United<br />
Stoke City 2-1 Hull City Tigers<br />
Sunderland 1-2 West Ham United<br />
Swansea City 2-1 Norwich City<br />
West Bromwich Albion 2-1 Cardiff City<br />
<br />
<b><u>April 2014</u></b><br />
Aston Villa 2-2 Fulham<br />
Cardiff City 1-0 Crystal Palace<br />
Chelsea 3-1 Stoke City<br />
Everton 1-2 Arsenal<br />
Hull City Tigers 2-2 Swansea City<br />
Manchester City 2-1 Southampton<br />
Newcastle United 2-0 Manchester United<br />
Norwich City 1-1 West Bromwich Albion<br />
Tottenham Hotspur 3-0 Sunderland<br />
West Ham United 1-4 Liverpool<br />
<br />
Arsenal 4-0 West Ham United<br />
Crystal Palace 1-2 Aston Villa<br />
Fulham 2-1 Norwich City<br />
Liverpool 2-2 Manchester City<br />
Manchester United 2-1 Hull City Tigers<br />
Southampton 3-0 Cardiff City<br />
Stoke City 1-1 Newcastle United<br />
Sunderland 1-2 Everton<br />
Swansea City 1-2 Chelsea<br />
West Bromwich Albion 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur<br />
<br />
Aston Villa 1-1 Southampton<br />
Cardiff City 2-2 Stoke City<br />
Chelsea 2-0 Sunderland<br />
Everton 2-1 Manchester United<br />
Hull City Tigers 1-3 Arsenal<br />
Manchester City 4-0 West Bromwich Albion<br />
Newcastle United 3-1 Swansea City<br />
Norwich City 0-6 Liverpool<br />
Tottenham Hotspur 3-0 Fulham<br />
West Ham United 1-1 Crystal Palace<br />
<br />
Arsenal 2-1 Newcastle United<br />
Crystal Palace 0-3 Manchester City<br />
Fulham 2-1 Hull City Tigers<br />
Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea<br />
Manchester United 4-0 Norwich City<br />
Southampton 2-2 Everton<br />
Stoke City 1-3 Tottenham Hotspur<br />
Sunderland 2-1 Cardiff City<br />
Swansea City 2-1 Aston Villa<br />
West Bromwich Albion 3-1 West Ham United<br />
<br />
<b><u>May 2014</u></b><br />
Arsenal 4-1 West Bromwich Albion<br />
Aston Villa 2-1 Hull City Tigers<br />
Chelsea 5-0 Norwich City<br />
Crystal Palace 1-3 Liverpool<br />
Everton 2-1 Manchester City<br />
Manchester United 3-0 Sunderland<br />
Newcastle United 3-0 Cardiff City<br />
Stoke City 2-0 Fulham<br />
Swansea City 1-2 Southampton<br />
West Ham United 0-2 Tottenham Hotspur<br />
<br />
Cardiff City 0-2 Chelsea<br />
Fulham 1-2 Crystal Palace<br />
Hull City Tigers 1-2 Everton<br />
Liverpool 2-2 Newcastle United<br />
Manchester City 6-0 West Ham United<br />
Norwich City 0-3 Arsenal<br />
Southampton 1-1 Manchester United<br />
Sunderland 2-0 Swansea City<br />
Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 Aston Villa<br />
West Bromwich Albion 2-2 Stoke City<br />
<br />
<b><u>League calculations</u></b><br />
Arsenal 42+10+10+9+12+6 = 89<br />
Manchester City 41+8+12+13+10+3 = 87<br />
Chelsea 40+8+7+15+9+6 = 85<br />
Everton 37+10+8+13+7+6 = 81<br />
Liverpool 36+10+10+7+10+4 = 77<br />
Manchester United 34+7+9+12+6+4 = 72<br />
Tottenham Hotspur 34+6+5+7+9+6 = 67<br />
Newcastle United 33+8+7+5+7+4 = 64<br />
Southampton 27+5+10+10+5+4 = 61<br />
Hull City Tigers 23+5+3+5+1+0 = 37<br />
Swansea City 21+2+6+7+4+0 = 40<br />
Stoke City 21+0+0+9+2+4 = 36<br />
Aston Villa 20+3+1+3+5+3 = 35<br />
Norwich City 19+1+1+6+1+0 = 28<br />
West Bromwich Albion 18+0+4+7+7+1 = 37<br />
Cardiff City 18+3+7+0+4+0 = 32<br />
Crystal Palace 16+7+0+2+1+3 = 29<br />
Fulham 16+3+1+6+7+0 = 33<br />
West Ham United 15+1+7+6+1+0 = 30<br />
Sunderland 14+10+2+1+3+3 = 33<br />
<br />
<b><u>Predicted league table</u></b><br />
1. Arsenal 89 pts (Champions, UCL)<br />
2. Manchester City 87 pts (UCL)<br />
3. Chelsea 85 pts (UCL)<br />
4. Everton 81 pts (UCL qualifications)<br />
5. Liverpool 77 pts (UEL)<br />
6. Manchester United 72 pts (UEL)<br />
7. Tottenham Hotspur 67pts<br />
8. Newcastle United 64 pts<br />
9. Southampton 61 pts<br />
10. Swansea City 40 pts<br />
11. Hull City Tigers 37 pts<br />
12. West Bromwich Albion 37 pts<br />
13. Stoke City 36 pts<br />
14. Aston Villa 35 pts<br />
15. Sunderland 33 pts<br />
16. Fulham 33 pts<br />
17. Cardiff City 32 pts<br />
18. West Ham United 30 pts (relegated)<br />
19. Crystal Palace 29 pts (relegated)<br />
20. Norwich City 28 pts (relegated)<br />
<br />
Wow, what a month for May 2014... Imagine Manchester City failing to deliver against Everton when it matters most, allowing the Gunners to sneak back to the top of the table, where they currently belong before the predictions. And it is expected that Manchester United would miss out on the Champions League for the 1st time since its inception, and finishing above them is Liverpool, after quite a while of being below Manchester United since the Premier League's beginnings. Of course, I would think Everton would be able to put on the consistency and ruthless streak against the mid-table teams and of course, acting as a banana skin to the big teams. They may just make it to the Champions League ahead of their Merseyside rivals. Being a Manchester United fan is a difficult reality considering the shake-up after Ferguson's retirement at the end of last season. I may have to somehow live with the jokes of "Turn to Channel 5 on Thursday nights". =3Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-12486027935726058072013-12-26T00:58:00.002+08:002013-12-27T08:52:38.478+08:00How the EPL takes shape before New Year's DayWest Ham United 2-1 West Bromwich Albion<br />
Aston Villa 2-1 Swansea City<br />
Hull City 2-1 Fulham<br />
Manchester City 5-0 Crystal Palace<br />
Norwich City 1-3 Manchester United<br />
Cardiff City 0-2 Sunderland<br />
Everton 2-1 Southampton<br />
Newcastle United 2-2 Arsenal<br />
Chelsea 2-1 Liverpool<br />
Tottenham Hotspur 4-1 Stoke City<br />
<br />
EPL Table @ 31.12.2013:<br />
1. Manchester City 41 pts (+37)<br />
2. Arsenal 40 pts (+18)<br />
3. Chelsea 40 pts (+16)<br />
4. Everton 37 pts (+13)<br />
5. Liverpool 36 pts (+21)<br />
6. Manchester United 34 pts (+11)<br />
7. Newcastle United 34 pts (+6)<br />
8. Tottenham Hotspur 34 pts (-2)<br />
9. Southampton 27 pts (+6)<br />
10. Hull City 23 pts (-6)<br />
11. Aston Villa 22 pts (-6)<br />
12. Stoke City 21 pts (-11)<br />
13. Swansea City 20 pts (-2)<br />
14. Norwich City 19 pts (-17)<br />
15. West Bromwich Albion 17 pts (-6)<br />
16. West Ham United 17 pts (-9)<br />
17. Cardiff City 17 pts (-17)<br />
18. Sunderland 16pts (-15)<br />
19. Fulham 16 pts (-17)<br />
20. Crystal Palace 16 pts (-20)<br />
<br />
There seems to be a clear pattern on how the League is taking shape. It's no real surprise to see City, Arsenal and Chelsea in the mix. However, I would definitely not be betting against Liverpool not being title contenders, as they would have completed 2 tough matches by Sunday (lost against Manchester City and are expected to lose against Chelsea, who's fortress under Mourinho has thus far remained intact). After that, they will have an easy run of fixtures that would be in their favour. At one point I considered Everton a title contender until they lost their unbeaten home record against bottom team Sunderland, who looked resurgent and defiant in defending against all odds. Sunderland is expected to put in the same kind of effort against troubled Cardiff City, which would potentially lift them off the foot of the table.<br />
<br />
I had my doubts for Manchester United went they went up against Hull due to their tigerish defensive record at home. It was a lucky 3 points considering it could have gone either way. I'm expecting another fight by Norwich, who beat us 1-0 last season, and I won't be surprised if they raise their game against the dethroned champions at home, despite a tiring run of fixtures. Of course, United will chop and change, but will it be good enough against Norwich? I would still think Norwich will edge this one, but I would love to be proven wrong.Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-2380146295646992282013-12-21T10:22:00.002+08:002013-12-31T11:03:21.210+08:00This weekend's EPL matchesPredictions:<br />
Liverpool 4-0 Cardiff City<br />
Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle United<br />
Fulham 1-3 Manchester City<br />
Manchester United 2-1 West Ham United<br />
Stoke City 2-2 Aston Villa<br />
Sunderland 2-1 Norwich City<br />
West Bromwich Albion 0-2 Hull City<br />
Southampton 2-1 Tottenham Hotspurs<br />
Swansea 1-2 Everton<br />
Arsenal 2-2 Chelsea<br />
<br />
How would the table look like after the results above?<br />
1. Liverpool 36 pts (+25)<br />
2. Arsenal 36 pts (+16)<br />
3. Manchester City 35 pts (+31)<br />
4. Chelsea 34 pts (+14)<br />
5. Everton 34 pts (+13)<br />
6. Manchester United 28 pts (+7)<br />
7. Newcastle United 28 pts (-1)<br />
8. Southampton 27 pts (+6)<br />
9. Tottenham Hotspurs 27 pts (-7)<br />
10. Hull City 22 pts (-4)<br />
11. Swansea City 20 pts (0)<br />
12. Aston Villa 20 pts (-5)<br />
13. Stoke City 19 pts (-5)<br />
14. Norwich City 18 pts (-15)<br />
15. Cardiff City 17 pts (-14)<br />
16. West Bromwich Albion 15 pts (-7)<br />
17. West Ham United 14 pts (-7)<br />
18. Crystal Palace 14 pts (-13)<br />
19. Fulham 13 pts (-17)<br />
20. Sunderland 12 pts (-17)<br />
<br />
It's going to be a pretty interesting table based on the results above. This will see Liverpool going top of the league once more since September with a resurgent Luis Suarez wreaking havoc, who had just signed a new contract with them.<br />
<br />
Wenger thus far has not been able to defeat a Mourinho side ever since Mourinho joined Chelsea back in 2005. Expect this record to continue, even with an Arsenal side boosting the likes of Ozil and free-scoring Ramsey. Their defence was absolutely shattered in the 6-3 defeat against title contenders Manchester City, who seemed to have finally found form in their away matches, overcoming their road trip blues. For Wenger, limiting the goals conceded would be the priority here.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, Everton is going great guns in the EPL this season, thanks in part to the contributions made by Barcelona loanee, Gerard Deulofeu and Chelsea loanee, Romelu Lukaku. Of course, with Deulofeu injured for a month, Martinez may have to rely on the creativity of both Mirallas and Pienaar to break down the Swansea defence, which doesn't look as solid with Vorm injured for 5 weeks. This is a chance for Everton to stay close to the title contenders.<br />
<br />
Manchester United seemed to have turned a corner in recent matches with wins in the UCL, league and COC. However, as a Manchester United fan, I have huge concerns about their home form. It seems that the Theatre of Dreams have become a Theatre of Nightmares this season for them. I won't be surprised to see Manchester United struggle against a side threatened by relegation, as well as the familiar face of Ravel Morrison, who seemed to be flourishing under the tutelage of Sam Allardyce, and was instrumental in the destruction of Tottenham in the league when the two sides met. He may look to do the same to his former side.<br />
<br />
Southampton has finally halted their losing streak in the league by surprisingly holding Manchester City to a draw some time ago. They would look to take advantage of Spurs' managerial chaos after the sacking of AVB (Another Vacancy Beckons). Pochettino is known for playing a high pressing game, and Spurs should be wary of this threat, particularly the physicality of Adam Lambert and Jay Rodriguez up front. Their defence may struggle, with even Lloris not being able to do much to inspire confidence to his defence.<br />
<br />
It's going to be another interesting weekend of football. Cheerio!Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-18909170081819713752013-12-07T02:01:00.002+08:002013-12-07T02:01:44.728+08:002014 World Cup predictionsGroup A<br />
Winner: Brazil<br />
Runner-up: Croatia<br />
<br />
Group B<br />
Winner: Spain<br />
Runner-up: Chile<br />
<br />
Group C:<br />
Winner: Colombia<br />
Runner-up: Japan<br />
<br />
Group D:<br />
Winner: Italy<br />
Runner-up: Uruguay<br />
<br />
Group E:<br />
Winner: France<br />
Runner-up: Switzerland<br />
<br />
Group F:<br />
Winner: Argentina<br />
Runner-up: Bosnia & Herzegovina<br />
<br />
Group G:<br />
Winner: Germany<br />
Runner-up: Portugal<br />
<br />
Group H:<br />
Winner: Belgium<br />
Runner-up: Russia<br />
<br />
What happens in the last 16?<br />
Brazil vs Chile (A1 vs B2)<br />
Colombia vs Uruguay (C1 vs D2)<br />
France vs Bosnia (E1 vs F2)<br />
Germany vs Russia (G1 vs H2)<br />
Spain vs Croatia (B1 vs A2)<br />
Italy vs Japan (D1 vs C2)<br />
Argentina vs Switzerland (F1 vs E2)<br />
Belgium vs Portugal (H1 vs G2)<br />
<br />
What happens in the quarter-finals?<br />
A1/B2 vs C1/D2<br />
E1/F2 vs G1/H2<br />
B1/A2 vs D1/C2<br />
F1/E2 vs H1/G2<br />
<br />
What happens in the semi-finals?<br />
A1/B2/C1/D2 vs E1/F2/G1/H2<br />
B1/A2/D1/C2 vs F1/E2/H1/G2<br />
<br />
I don't even need to say what happens in the final, because it is common sense.<br />
<br />
But, let's apply the scenario.<br />
<br />
Quarter-finals:<br />
Brazil vs Uruguay (World Cup history, in particular the 1950 World Cup final)<br />
France vs Germany (historically always at loggerheads, but Germany definitely has the better squad)<br />
Spain vs Italy (Tiki-taka vs "Why Always Me")<br />
Argentina vs Portugal (Wow, Messi vs Ronaldo, time to settle it once and for all)<br />
<br />
Mouth-watering prospects indeed.<br />
<br />
Semi-finals:<br />
Brazil vs Germany (a repeat of the 2002 World Cup final)<br />
Spain vs Argentina (Barca vs Messi & Co.)<br />
<br />
Again... Giant fixtures, you can't really go either way.<br />
<br />
Final:<br />Brazil vs Spain<br />
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Brazil trying to win it in front of their home fans, but most probably they'll suffer the heartbreak of 1950. Spain just reigns supreme. The core of their squad is mainly from La Liga (in particular Barca and Real Madrid).Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-40194799764228393362013-11-11T21:12:00.001+08:002013-11-11T21:12:51.774+08:00Predictions for EPL after this international breakEverton - Liverpool (2-1)<br />
Arsenal - Southampton (1-1)<br />
Fulham - Swansea City (1-3)<br />
Hull City Tigers - Crystal Palace (2-0)<br />
Newcastle United - Norwich City (3-0)<br />
Stoke - Sunderland (2-2)<br />
West Ham United - Chelsea (1-3)<br />
Manchester City - Tottenham Hotspurs (3-1)<br />
Cardiff City - Manchester United (1-2)<br />
West Bromwich Albion - Aston Villa (2-2)<br />
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What implications will these results have?<br />
1) Arsenal 26 pts (+12)<br />
2) Chelsea 24 pts (+10)<br />
3) Liverpool 23 pts (+10)<br />
4) Southampton 23 pts (+10)<br />
5) Manchester United 23 pts (+6)<br />
6) Everton 23 pts (+5)<br />
7) Manchester City 22 pts (+18)<br />
8) Newcastle United 20 pts (+2)<br />
9) Tottenham Hotspurs 20 pts (+1)<br />
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Imagine the Top 9 separated by just 6 points. Or even for the most optimistic of people, say if Southampton somehow wins at Arsenal, they will be tied at the top! Just behind on goal difference, and the gap will be 5 points between the Top 9. A very intriguing season lies in store.Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-10881233147865660052013-11-02T16:25:00.000+08:002013-11-02T16:25:00.770+08:00Sungai Limau by-electionWith 2 days of campaigning to go before the actual voting process on this Monday (4/11/2013), I'm observing a very tight race, with BN sure to significantly slash the majority held by PAS in GE13. They are in a position to win this seat for the 1st time since 1990. Let's consider the demographics below:<br />
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Malays - 25,323 voters<br />
Chinese - 1,842 voters<br />
Indian - 15 voters<br />
Total - 27,180 voters<br />
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I would think that the prediction would be as follows:<br />
Malays - 85% turnout (21,525 voters)<br />
UMNO 10,945 - 10,580 PAS<br />
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Chinese - 75% turnout (1,382 voters)<br />
UMNO 576 - 806 PAS<br />
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Indians - 100% turnout (15 voters)<br />
UMNO 10 - 5 PAS<br />
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Total:<br />
UMNO 11,531 - 11,391 PAS (Majority: 140 votes)<br />
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Total voter turnout: 22,922 voters (84.33%)<br />
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We have to remember that this is a by-election, whereby BN is always able to focus a lot of their machinery and money there. Whether or not the promises would be fulfilled is another matter altogether. The long-term implications to PAS would be severe, even if they suffer only a reduction in majority, what more a loss in what is considered their stronghold. This would mean the strengthening of Mukhriz's position in Kedah, which would make it impossible for PR to wrestle Kedah once more in GE14. Also, another seat for BN would mean strengthening its position to 22-14 in the State Assembly, making it just 2 seats away from gaining a 2/3 majority, which is more than likely to happen in GE14 with Mahathir's son at the helm.Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-36069665684842827532013-05-11T00:49:00.001+08:002013-05-11T00:49:05.968+08:00Final comment on Johor GE resultsWell, I wasn't far off in terms of my predictions for both parliament and state seats in the most southern state of Malaysia.<br />
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At parliament level, I predicted that PR would win 7 seats at best, which would have included Segamat (where Chua Jui Meng was contesting) and Labis (where Chua Tee Yong was contesting). I was wrong on these 2 places when the voters gave BN narrow victories in both the seats. Also, I got it wrong in both the Muar and Batu Pahat seats, for which I predicted a PKR and UMNO victory respectively. It went the other way around. I realistically thought Muar is more vulnerable compared to Batu Pahat due to the closer majority for Muar as compared to Batu Pahat. Then again, how wrong can I be? Puad Zarkashi lost unexpectedly in Batu Pahat, which automatically means that 2 Deputy Ministers of Higher Education was defeated in the same GE, a first I would say.<br />
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Hence, this explains the 5 parliament seats PR won in Johor. I did told my friend before that PR is going to win 5 seats at most, but this was before I did the analysis. I tried to detect possible mood swings by going as micro as possible. It nearly pulled off I can tell you that.<br />
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At state level, I predicted that PR would win 19 seats at best, which would have meant denying BN their 2/3 majority in Johor for the first time in history. Can you imagine having come this far in UMNO's fortress? In the end, PR won 18 seats, which just fell 1 seat short of denying BN their 2/3 majority in the State Assembly. There are a few seats that I got it wrong, but I would like to single one out in particular: PALOH. I had predicted a narrow victory for DAP in this seat, for which they fielded an Indian candidate. This is a very mixed seat, but with the Chinese making up the majority at 44%, followed by Malays at 37% and Indians at 17%. You have to feel realistic that DAP is just going to nick this one, but in the end, the frustration was there for all to see. Imagine... losing by just 103 votes! The number of spoilt votes? 403 votes. Imagine where those spoilt votes could have gone to. This I have to remind you again ladies and gentlemen, there is a fine line between winning and losing, and this was one of them.<br />
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I guess that is all for now. I will make a full analysis for all the seats when I have the time to do so. Who knows, it might turn into a book for people to read, and they will know more about the guy who wrote 2 articles for Kee Thuan Chye's book "March 8: Time for Real Change".Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-15027386106969283992013-05-04T23:30:00.001+08:002013-05-11T00:50:20.855+08:00Why Johor? (Part 8) - updated with actual<b><u>P162 - Gelang Patah</u></b><br />
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Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 8,851 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N48 - Skudai</b></div>
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DAP won by a majority of 12,854 votes</div>
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Chinese 65%; Malay 22%; Indian 12%</div>
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Voters (2013): 56,633</div>
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Voters (2008): 44,459</div>
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<b>N49 - Nusa Jaya</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 7,384 votes.</div>
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Malay 47%; Chinese 38%; Indian 13%</div>
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Voters (2013): 50,231</div>
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Voters (2008): 34,217</div>
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Oh my God... 14,251 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). What the hell is this... This is just too amazing by any standard possible. Can you think of another place whereby you would see this much split-voting??? PR clearly has more votes than BN at state level, but how they did not convert this at parliament level is a very, very big question.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Skudai would be comfortably retained by DAP with an increased majority [16,000 votes]</div>
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Nusa Jaya would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? Lim Kit Siang up against Ghani Abdul Othman... What a battlefield I can tell you that... This is where generals face each other heads-on. Despite Ghani's reputation and track record of being a 4-term MB of Johor, he is facing an uphill battle against DAP's lion. The high level of split voting may give him some hope to defend Gelang Patah, but mind you, this is a Chinese-majority seat that we're talking about. I think Kit Siang has this one in the bag, but it won't be by much due to the high level of split-voting [2,000 votes].<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P162) Gelang Patah - DAP won by a majority of 14,762 votes</div>
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Skudai - DAP won by a majority of 18,050 votes</div>
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Nusa Jaya - UMNO won by a majority of 2,201 votes</div>
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<b><u>P163 - Kulai</u></b></div>
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Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 11,744 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N50 - Bukit Permai</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 5,192 votes</div>
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Malay 52%; Chinese 34%; Indian 12%</div>
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Voters (2013): 21,663</div>
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Voters (2008): 14,863</div>
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<b>N51 - Bukit Batu</b></div>
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GERAKAN won by a majority of 2,341 votes.</div>
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Chinese 62%; Malay 30%; Indian 7%</div>
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Voters (2013): 22,304</div>
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Voters (2008): 19,556</div>
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<b>N52 - Senai</b></div>
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DAP won by a majority of 4,030 votes.</div>
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Chinese 65%; Malay 23%; Indian 11%</div>
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Voters (2013): 40,182</div>
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Voters (2008): 32,939</div>
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A whopping 8,221 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). Again... Are you kidding me??? Why do you guys have to follow Gelang Patah?? Oh my God... This is beyond my comprehension...</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Bukit Permai would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,700 votes]</div>
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Bukit Batu would fall to PKR this time around with a comfortable majority [3,500 votes]</div>
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Senai would be comfortably retained by DAP with an increased majority [8,500 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? I can see Teo Nie Ching (former Serdang MP) helping DAP to contribute to another seat in Johor as part of PR's push to become the new federal government. The level of split-voting still amazes me, but I expect it will dwindle down by a lot due to the cohesion of PR in this case. I think the majority would be around 3,500 votes in favour of DAP.</div>
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P163) Kulai - DAP won by a majority of 13,450 votes</div>
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Bukit Permai - UMNO won by a majority of 3,369 votes</div>
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Bukit Batu - PKR won by a majority of 4,015 votes</div>
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Senai - DAP won by a majority of 11,227 votes</div>
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<b><u>P164 - Pontian</u></b></div>
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 14,444 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N53 - Benut</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 6,304 votes.</div>
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Malay 78%; Chinese 18%; Others 4%</div>
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Voters (2013): 21,521</div>
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Voters (2008): 18,646</div>
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<b>N54 - Pulai Sebatang</b></div>
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MCA won by a majority of 5,765 votes.</div>
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Malay 62%; Chinese 35%; Others 2%</div>
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Voters (2013): 28,232</div>
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Voters (2008): 24,618</div>
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About 2,375 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level).</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Benut to be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,000 votes]</div>
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Pulai Sebatang to be retained by MCA with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? I expect UMNO to retain Pontian comfortably, although their majority would definitely be slashed to about 9,600 votes. Ahmad Maslan (Deputy Minister in PM's department) is not some stranger we haven't known before. He's an UMNO bigwig, and he definitely has experience to deal with it.</div>
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P164) Pontian - UMNO won by a majority of 13,727 votes</div>
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Benut - UMNO won by a majority of 6,572 votes</div>
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Pulai Sebatang - MCA won by a majority of 3,412 votes</div>
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<b><u>P165 - Tanjung Piai</u></b></div>
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Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 12,371 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N55 - Pekan Nenas</b></div>
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MCA won by a majority of 3,324 votes</div>
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Chinese 58%; Malay 39%; Others 2%</div>
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Voters (2013): 32,562</div>
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Voters (2008): 28,012</div>
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<b>N56 - Kukup</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 8,639 votes.</div>
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Malay 69%; Chinese 28%; Others 3%</div>
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Voters (2013): 19,438</div>
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Voters (2008): 17,689</div>
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Only 408 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). A non-factor in the context of Tanjung Piai.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Pekan Nenas would fall to the DAP with a comfortable margin [2,500 votes]</div>
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Kukup would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [7,500 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? MCA would survive the onslaught of the Chinese votes going against them in this seat, because they have the Malay voters in Kukup to thank for their strong support. Split-voting is a negligible factor, hence I think MCA would win this one by 4,800 votes.</div>
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P165) Tanjung Piai - MCA won by a majority of 5,457 votes</div>
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Pekan Nenas - DAP won by a majority of 2,669 votes</div>
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Kukup - UMNO won by a majority of 6,946 votes</div>
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<b>Overall analysis (Part 8):</b></div>
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Things are looking better for PR in this final part of the analysis. If things go to plan, Gelang Patah and Kulai will fall to DAP tomorrow. Pontian would remain an UMNO fortress for years to come, while it's going to be a close fight in Tanjung Piai between MCA and DAP. However, it has to be noted that DAP fielded a Malay candidate (Madhzir Ibrahim), this may potentially appeal to the Malay voters in particular, although the impact won't be significant. </div>
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Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?</div>
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Parliament: BN 19-7 PR</div>
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State: BN 37-19 PR</div>
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As the analysis comes to a close, we can see that PR can win 7 parliament seats in Johor at best, despite the valiant efforts of campaigning during the last 2 weeks. It is all there for us to see how Johor would remain a BN fortress, although it is now weakened as compared to 2008. And as we can see, PR has just gained enough seats at state level to prevent BN's 2/3 majority in the state assembly. This will be quite a change from 2008.<br />
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Only voting day tomorrow can decide whether my predictions would be correct or otherwise. I've done my analysis based on an honest and realistic assessment of the current political sentiments.</div>
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The most important thing we can do now is to vote tomorrow and pray. We will see what happens in the next 24 hours, in what could be a defining moment for our country.<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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Parliament: BN 21-5 PR</div>
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State: BN 38-18 PR</div>
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Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-6752065752048514602013-05-04T22:49:00.002+08:002013-05-11T00:50:09.427+08:00Why Johor? (Part 7) - updated with actual<b><u>P158 - Tebrau</u></b><br />
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Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 14,658 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N40 - Tiram</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 8,178 votes</div>
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Malay 53%; Chinese 30%; Indian 15%</div>
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Voters (2013): 46,274</div>
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Voters (2008): 34,018</div>
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<b>N41 - Puteri Wangsa</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 5,791 votes.</div>
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Chinese 47%; Malay 40%; Indian 12%</div>
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Voters (2013): 43,877</div>
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Voters (2008): 28,487</div>
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689 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). A non-factor in determining the next Tebrau MP.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Tiram would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,000 votes]</div>
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PAS would send chills down your spine by recording victory with a slim margin [400 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? MCA would still retain Tebrau, but expect their majority to be slashed to around 5,500 votes this time around. Who says MCA is irrelevant? (But hey, this is a Malay-majority seat we're talking about).<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P158) Tebrau - MCA won by a majority of 1,767 votes</div>
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Tiram - UMNO won by a majority of 7,443 votes</div>
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Puteri Wangsa - PAS won by a majority of 3,469 votes</div>
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<b><u>P159 - Pasir Gudang</u></b></div>
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 17,281 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N42 - Johor Jaya</b></div>
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MCA won by a majority of 10,488 votes.</div>
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Chinese 47%; Malay 43%; Indian 7%</div>
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Voters (2013): 51,698</div>
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Voters (2008): 38,167</div>
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<b>N43 - Permas</b></div>
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MIC won by a majority of 2,018 votes.</div>
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Malay 52%; Chinese 29%; Indian 15%</div>
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Voters (2013): 49,423</div>
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Voters (2008): 34,695</div>
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A whopping 4,775 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). This was due to the popularity of the PAS candidate in Permas.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Johor Jaya would be retained by MCA with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]</div>
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Permas would fall to PAS this time around with a comfortable majority [3,000 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? Khaled Nordin (Minister of Higher Education) is no longer contesting at parliament level, as he's the next Johor MB to replace Ghani, who is contesting against DAP's Lim Kit Siang in Gelang Patah, which I would cover later on. Coming back to Tebrau, this seat is a real possibility for PR to win. However, the split-voting pattern by the Malay voters would deter a shock, although expect the majority to be slashed substantially [4,000 votes].<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P159) Pasir Gudang - UMNO won by a majority of 935 votes</div>
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Johor Jaya - DAP won by a majority of 1,460 votes</div>
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Permas - UMNO won by a majority of 5,752 votes</div>
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<b><u>P160 - Johor Bahru</u></b></div>
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 25,349 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N44 - Tanjong Puteri</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 13,740 votes.</div>
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Malay 61%; Chinese 32%; Indian 5%</div>
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Voters (2013): 51,545</div>
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Voters (2008): 47,062</div>
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<b>N45 - Stulang</b></div>
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MCA won by a majority of 6,181 votes.</div>
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Chinese 55%; Malay 39%; Indian 4%</div>
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Voters (2013): 44,970</div>
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Voters (2008): 42,663</div>
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A whopping 5,428 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). Such is the popularity of Shahrir Samad, who is a very experienced political veteran. Lest people forget, he has a brother on the other side of the political divide... (and he's defending his Shah Alam seat against a certain Zul Nordin). Well, let's not deflect our attention way from Shahrir, shall we? This is Johor Bahru we're talking about, the state capital.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Tanjong Puteri to be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [10,000 votes]</div>
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Stulang to fall to DAP with a less than comfortable margin [1,000 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? I expect Shahrir Samad's majority to be further reduced due to the rise of the Chinese in Stulang. Expect the majority to be around 15,000 votes, as there might be some Chinese would go split-voting.<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P160) Johor Bahru - UMNO won by a majority of 10,134 votes</div>
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Tanjung Puteri - UMNO won by a majority of 9,097 votes</div>
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Stulang - DAP won by a majority of 3,296 votes</div>
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<b><u>P161 - Pulai</u></b></div>
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 20,449 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N46 - Pengkalan Rinting</b></div>
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MCA won by a majority of 10,374 votes.</div>
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Chinese 45%; Malay 43%; Indian 11%</div>
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Voters (2013): 61,316</div>
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Voters (2008): 46,664</div>
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<b>N47 - Kempas</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 8,186 votes.</div>
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Malay 54%; Chinese 35%; Indian 9%</div>
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Voters (2013): 39,379</div>
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Voters (2008): 32,958</div>
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1,889 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). Nur Jazlan is very popular in Pulai, if I'm not mistaken, he has the ability to speak fluently in one of the Chinese dialects (can someone confirm this for me?).</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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DAP would cause a huge shock in Pengkalan Rinting by a slim margin [500 votes]</div>
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Kempas would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [4,500 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? I expect Nur Jazlan to still be in Parliament after tomorrow's voting, but he won't wake up easy to seeing his majority being slashed significantly once more. If we're forgeting who he is up against, this is a jolt for your memory. It is Salahuddin Ayub. =3 As much as we first thought that Salahuddin was sent for slaughter, it seems that there is a basis for sending him there. He is capable and experienced, having served Kubang Kerian in Kelantan for more than 10 years. He's also the prospective MB if PR wins in Johor, but this is very unlikely to happen tomorrow. There will be inroads made by PR, but winning the state? Come on... Be realistic. He's not even guaranteed to win in Nusajaya. Hence, comes down to my prediction, UMNO to win by 6,500 votes (considering split-voting).<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P161) Pulai - UMNO won by a majority of 3,226 votes</div>
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Pengkalan Rinting - DAP won by a majority of 1,970 votes</div>
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Kempas - UMNO won by a majority of 3,947 votes</div>
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<b>Overall analysis (Part 7):</b></div>
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PR has an almost equal to chance to take the Tebrau seat away from BN. However, the Malay-majority demographic is the only thing preventing a possible victory for PR, although they can potentially win one of the state seats (Puteri Wangsa). The same case goes for Pasir Gudang. PR may potentially have more votes at state level as compared to parliament level. If they could cut down on this split-voting, they have a real shot, but I don't see that coming. Johor Bahru remains as Shahrir Samad territory, although it won't be a fortress any longer. And finally in Pulai, expect Salahuddin to give Nur Jazlan a run for his life before losing bravely tomorrow. </div>
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Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?</div>
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Parliament: BN 17-5 PR</div>
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State: BN 32-15 PR</div>
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As we can see, PR is making better progress at state level as compared to parliament level. The number of parliament seats that they can win has been stagnant since Part 5 of my analysis. They will definitely give a better fight in this part of the analysis, though they are expected to come up with no parliamentary seats for show.</div>
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Part 8 will be the last part of my Johor series before tomorrow's polling day. By then, we would know where PR would stand in the context of battlefield Johor.<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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Parliament: BN 19-3 PR</div>
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State: BN 33-14 PR</div>
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Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-67715417097453325622013-05-04T22:05:00.001+08:002013-05-11T00:49:53.258+08:00Why Johor? (Part 6) - updated with actual<b><u>P155 - Tenggara</u></b><br />
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 14,049 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N34 - Panti</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 7,503 votes</div>
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Malay 86%; Chinese 7%; Indian 4%</div>
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Voters (2013): 17,395</div>
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Voters (2008): 14,448</div>
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<b>N35 - Pasir Raja</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 6,800 votes.</div>
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Malay 64%; Chinese 25%; Indian 9%</div>
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Voters (2013): 44,456</div>
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Voters (2008): 35,980</div>
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Only 254 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at parliament level, voting for BN at state level). A non-factor altogether.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Panti would be retained by UMNO with an increased majority [8,000 votes]</div>
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Pasir Raja would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,500 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? I don't see UMNO losing this one. This one is a matter of how much the majority will be. I expect it'll be around 13,500 votes.</div>
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P155) Tenggara - UMNO won by a majority of 17,196 votes</div>
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Panti - UMNO won by a majority of 10,270 votes</div>
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Pasir Raja - UMNO won by a majority of 6,666 votes</div>
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<br />
<br /></div>
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<b><u>P156 - Kota Tinggi</u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 18,961 votes</div>
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<br /></div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N36 - Sedili</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 12,758 votes.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Malay 95%; Chinese 2%; Others 2%</div>
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Voters (2013): 24,750</div>
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Voters (2008): 19,190</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>N37 - Johor Lama</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 6,305 votes.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Malay 72%; Chinese 23%; Indian 4%</div>
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Voters (2013): 17,211</div>
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Voters (2008): 15,000</div>
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<br /></div>
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Only 102 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliamant level). A non-factor in the bigger scheme of things.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Sedili to be comfortably retained by UMNO with a slight reduction in majority [12,500 votes]</div>
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Johor Lama would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [4,800 votes]</div>
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<br /></div>
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Parliament-wise? PR is just sending its candidates to be slaughtered for Kota Tinggi, although Syed Hamid Albar is no longer contesting [17,500 votes].</div>
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<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P156) Kota Tinggi - UMNO won by a majority of 24,574 votes</div>
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Sedili - UMNO won by a majority of 18,217 votes</div>
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Johor Lama - UMNO won by a majority of 7,022 votes</div>
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<br />
<br /></div>
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<b><u>P157 - Pengerang</u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a walkover.</div>
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<br /></div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N38 - Penawar</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 10,102 votes.</div>
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Malay 97%; Others 2%; Indian 1%</div>
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Voters (2013): 19,914</div>
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Voters (2008): 16,498</div>
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<b>N39 - Tanjong Surat</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 9,208 votes.</div>
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Malay 77%; Chinese 21%; Others 2%</div>
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Voters (2013): 18,157</div>
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Voters (2008): 16,504</div>
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No split voting is applicable here as Azalina Othman was given a walkover for Pengerang back in 2008. As you can see from the state seats above, this is truly an UMNO fortress, and tomorrow will be no different.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Penawar to be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [10,000 votes]</div>
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Tanjong Surat to be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [8,000 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? I can't see anything other than UMNO all over this seat. Expect a majority of about 18,000 votes.</div>
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P157) Pengerang - UMNO won by a majority of 22,508 votes</div>
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Penawar - UMNO won by a majority of 12,818 votes</div>
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Tanjong Surat - UMNO won by a majority of 9,035 votes</div>
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<b>Overall analysis (Part 6):</b></div>
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The 3 parliament seats above plus the 6 state seats has defined "impossible" to a new level for PR. This is absolutely fortress BN. Anything other than a clean sweep for BN would be a major surprise. </div>
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Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?</div>
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Parliament: BN 13-5 PR</div>
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State: BN 28-11 PR</div>
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At this juncture, BN is comfortably extending their lead at both parliament level and state level. All that is needed is 29 state seats to form a simple majority and form the state government. BN only needs 1 more from the remaining 17 state seats that I'm going to cover, and surely they will win more than that. It will take a very long time for Johor to be free from BN dominance at the rate it is currently going.</div>
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I'll try to cover the remaining 8 parliament seats in the last 2 parts. It seems that PR's aim to obtain 10 parliament seats are getting slimmer and slimmer as we are running out of seats.<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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Parliament: BN 15-3 PR</div>
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State: BN 29-10 PR</div>
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Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-25835925296043815252013-05-04T20:20:00.001+08:002013-05-11T00:49:43.175+08:00Why Johor? (Part 5) - updated with actual<b><u>P152 - Kluang</u></b><br />
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Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 3,781 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N28 - Mengkibol</b></div>
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DAP won by a majority of 1,281 votes</div>
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Chinese 58%; Malay 27%; Indian 14%</div>
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Voters (2013): 42,458</div>
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Voters (2008): 35,253</div>
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<b>N29 - Mahkota</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 8,480 votes.</div>
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Malay 50%; Chinese 41%; Indian 6%</div>
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Voters (2013): 44,456</div>
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Voters (2008): 35,980</div>
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3,418 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at parliament level, voting for BN at state level). This can play a huge role in determining who wins at parliament level.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Mengkibol would be retained by DAP with a slight increase in majority [2,000 votes]</div>
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Mahkota would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,000 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? I think Liew Chin Tong was brave enough to leave the comforts of Bukit Bendera in Penang to help with the charge into Johor. Not to mention that he is up against his former lecturer. It will be rewarded with a narrow victory [400 votes].<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P152) Kluang - DAP won by a majority of 7,359 votes</div>
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Mengkibol - DAP won by a majority of 10,001 votes</div>
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Mahkota - UMNO won by a majority of 1,108 votes</div>
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<b><u>P153 - Sembrong</u></b></div>
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 11,570 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N30 - Paloh</b></div>
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MCA won by a majority of 2,794 votes.</div>
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Chinese 44%; Malay 37%; Indian 17%</div>
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Voters (2013): 18,274</div>
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Voters (2008): 16,084</div>
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<b>N31 - Kahang</b></div>
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MIC won by a majority of 5,324 votes.</div>
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Malay 74%; Chinese 21%; Others 3%</div>
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Voters (2013): 23,407</div>
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Voters (2008): 17,097</div>
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A whopping 3,452 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). Seems Hishamuddin Hussein (Minister of Home Affairs), despite all his antics in the past, is still popular in his constituency. If he were to contest in the urban areas, surely he'll lose.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Paloh would fall to DAP by a slim margin [300 votes]</div>
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Kahang would be retained by MIC with a reduced majority [3,500 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? Hishamuddin would still be around in Parliament, though he would see his majority being slashed to about 6,500 votes.<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P153) Sembrong - UMNO won by a majority of 10,631 votes</div>
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Paloh - MCA won by a majority of 103 votes</div>
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Kahang - MIC won by a majority of 7,801 votes</div>
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<b><u>P154 - Mersing</u></b></div>
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 13,736 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N32 - Endau</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 3,527 votes.</div>
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Malay 76%; Chinese 19%; Others 4%</div>
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Voters (2013): unknown</div>
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Voters (2008): 18,244</div>
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<b>N33 - Tenggaroh</b></div>
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MIC won by a majority of 8,233 votes.</div>
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Malay 80%; Chinese 13%; Others 5%</div>
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Voters (2013): 25,499</div>
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Voters (2008): 20,176</div>
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About 1,976 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). This is a typical UMNO fortress. Such is the confidence that they put an MIC candidate in a very Malay-centric seat, they can still come out comfortable victors.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Endau to be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [3,000 votes]</div>
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Tenggaroh to be retained by MIC with a comfortable majority [8,000 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? I can't see anything other than UMNO all over this seat. Expect a majority of about 13,000 votes. People won't even notice that the majority is expected to drop only slightly.</div>
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P154) Mersing - UMNO won by a majority of 15,747 votes</div>
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Endau - UMNO won by a majority of 3,110 votes</div>
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Tenggaroh - MIC won by a majority of 13,014 votes</div>
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<b>Overall analysis (Part 5):</b></div>
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PR stands a good chance in Kluang through its main strategist, as the tide of change is much alive in Kluang. However, PR still has to be wary of Ng Lam Hua's influence in Kluang at state level (considering he was sacked by DAP when he was initially chosen to contest the seats). Meanwhile, Sembrong and Mersing are 2 typical UMNO fortresses whereby the Malays are just unmoved by what PR throws in against the UMNO candidates. </div>
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Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?</div>
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Parliament: BN 10-5 PR</div>
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State: BN 22-11 PR</div>
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BN's lead over PR at this juncture is quite mathematical, if you see what I mean. Whatever PR has, BN doubles it.</div>
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Part 6 coming soon, although I have heavy doubts on whether I would be able to finish my Johor analysis by tonight. It's a lot to cover I can tell you that. Anyway, to all the readers unknown to me, I give you my thanks in advance. Happy voting!<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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Parliament: BN 12-3 PR</div>
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State: BN 23-10 PR</div>
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Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-82702120809608679632013-05-04T18:59:00.003+08:002013-05-11T00:49:33.251+08:00Why Johor? (Part 4) - updated with actual<b><u>P149 - Sri Gading</u></b><br />
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 10,874 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N21 - Parit Yaani</b></div>
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MCA won by a majority of 3,857 votes.</div>
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Malay 54%; Chinese 43%; Others 2%</div>
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Voters (2013): 24,668</div>
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Voters (2008): 19,545</div>
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<b>N22 - Parit Raja</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 5,827 votes.</div>
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Malay 73%; Chinese 22%; Others 3%</div>
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Voters (2013): 20,253</div>
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Voters (2008): 17,300</div>
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1,190 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). Not a huge factor considering the large majority UMNO currently holds.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Parit Yaani would be retained by MCA with a reduced majority [2,000 votes]</div>
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Parit Raja would be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [5,300 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? We can't see anything past UMNO here. This is another typical UMNO fortress for which PR are sending their candidates to be slaughtered, though not totally. They may have some fight to reduce the majority, but not my much. Expect a majority of 9,000 votes.</div>
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P149) Sri Gading - UMNO won by a majority of 5,761 votes</div>
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Parit Yaani - PAS won by a majority of 1,188 votes</div>
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Parit Raja - UMNO won by a majority of 3,956 votes</div>
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<b><u>P150 - Batu Pahat</u></b></div>
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 12,968 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N23 - Penggaram</b></div>
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MCA won by a majority of 575 votes.</div>
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Chinese 61%; Malay 35%; Indian 2%</div>
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Voters (2013): 45,259</div>
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Voters (2008): 34,519</div>
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<b>N24 - Senggarang</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 3,028 votes.</div>
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Malay 60%; Chinese 37%; Others 2%</div>
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Voters (2013): 24,090</div>
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Voters (2008): 19,799</div>
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<b>N25 - Rengit</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 5,279 votes.</div>
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Malay 79%; Chinese 18%; Others 2%</div>
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Voters (2013): 19,112</div>
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Voters (2008): 15,751</div>
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A whopping 4,086 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). Although the 12,968 majority that UMNO enjoys at the moment looks comfortable, trust me, it was a huge swing between 2004 and 2008. It doesn't look safe as first thought. Expect PKR to give Puad Zarkashi (Deputy Education Minister) a run for his money.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Penggaram would fall to DAP by a comfortable majority [2,500 votes]</div>
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Senggarang would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [1,500 votes]</div>
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Rengit would be comfortably retained by UMNO by about the same majority due to the popularity of the UMNO candidate [5,300 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? Puad Zarkashi may just survive the Chinese vote backlash through the bulk of the Malay votes. I expect a majority of about 7,300 votes, as I think there will be a lower level of split-voting this time around.<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P150) Batu Pahat - PKR won by a majority of 1,732 votes</div>
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Penggaram - DAP won by a majority of 10,051 votes</div>
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Senggarang - UMNO won by a majority of 2,083 votes</div>
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Rengit - UMNO won by a majority of 5,492 votes</div>
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<b><u>P151 - Simpang Renggam</u></b></div>
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Parliament (2008): GERAKAN won by a majority of 7,853 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N26 - Machap</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 4,178 votes.</div>
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Malay 60%; Chinese 35%; Indian 5%</div>
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Voters (2013): unknown</div>
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Voters (2008): 18,244</div>
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<b>N27 - Layang-Layang</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 2,442 votes.</div>
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Malay 49%; Chinese 35%; Indians 15%</div>
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Voters (2013): 17,950</div>
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Voters (2008): 16,615</div>
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About 1,233 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). GERAKAN was wiped out in Penang back in 2008, hence Johor provided their last lungs to remain relevant in BN politics, particularly this seat.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Macap to be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [4,000 votes]</div>
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Layang-Layang to be retained by UMNO by a slim margin [1,000 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? GERAKAN would still survive with a seat after polling tomorrow, due to it contesting in a Malay-majority seat, but will suffer a slight decrease in majority [6,000 votes].</div>
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P151) Simpang Renggam - GERAKAN won by a majority of 5,706 votes</div>
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Machap - UMNO won by a majority of 3,902 votes</div>
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Layang-Layang - UMNO won by a majority of 2,518 votes</div>
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<b>Overall analysis (Part 4):</b></div>
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In this case, there are no winnable seats for PR except for Penggaram at state level. This is a hard part of Johor for PR, hence they have to maximise their resources where they have a high chance of winning. Definitely a low chance of winning any of the parliament seats mentioned above.</div>
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Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?</div>
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Parliament: BN 8-4 PR</div>
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State: BN 18-9 PR</div>
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This shows a real gap in support between BN and PR in Johor. It's starting to show why Johor is such a BN fortress ever since independence, furthermore it is UMNO's birthplace.</div>
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Part 5 coming right up!<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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Parliament: BN 10-2 PR</div>
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State: BN 18-9 PR</div>
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Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-66187878742100689922013-05-04T18:24:00.002+08:002013-05-11T00:49:21.554+08:00Why Johor? (Part 3) - updated with actual<b><u>P146 - Muar</u></b><br />
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 4,661 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N15 - Maharani</b></div>
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PAS won by a majority of 158 votes.</div>
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Malay 55%; Chinese 42%; Indian 2%</div>
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Voters (2013): 27,461</div>
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Voters (2008): 22,902</div>
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<b>N16 - Sungai Balang</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 2,018 votes.</div>
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Malay 72%; Chinese 27%; Others 1%</div>
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Voters (2013): 21,173</div>
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Voters (2008): 18,117</div>
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A whopping 2,801 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). Surely a big factor in determining winning or losing by the narrowest of margins.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Maharani would be retained by PAS with a bigger majority due to the popularity of the PAS candidate [2,000 votes].</div>
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PAS may pull off a shock in Sungai Balang due to the familiarity of the PAS candidate with the area and its constituents [1,000 votes].</div>
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Parliament-wise? A matter of how many voters would opt for split-voting is a huge question mark. I assume about 2,500 voters are going to do so. If this is the case, we may see PKR pulling off a shock against the Deputy Minister of Youth and Sports, but by a narrow margin most probably (by 500 votes). This is a hot seat to watch tomorrow.</div>
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P146) Muar - UMNO won by a majority of 1,646 votes</div>
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Maharani - PAS won by a majority of 3,136 votes</div>
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Sungai Balang - UMNO won by a majority of 1,635 votes</div>
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<b><u>P147 - Parit Sulong</u></b></div>
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 13,599 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N17 - Semerah</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 5,074 votes.</div>
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Malay 63%; Chinese 34%; Others 3%</div>
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Voters (2013): 31,123</div>
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Voters (2008): 28,563</div>
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<b>N18 - Sri Medan</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 7,654 votes.</div>
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Malay 83%; Chinese 9%; Others 8%</div>
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Voters (2013): 25,907</div>
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Voters (2008): 21,671</div>
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871 opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). Considering how big the majority is, it won't affect BN's support at all.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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Semerah would still be retained by UMNO by a slightly reduced majority [4,500 votes]</div>
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Sri Medan would be comfortably retained by UMNO, also by a slightly reduced majority [7,000 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? UMNO to win by 12,300 votes if about 800 voters use the same split voting pattern mentioned above.<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P147) Parit Sulong - UMNO won by a majority of 11,753 votes</div>
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Semerah - UMNO won by a majority of 2,649 votes</div>
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Sri Medan - UMNO won by a majority of 9,430 votes</div>
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<b><u>P148 - Ayer Hitam</u></b></div>
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Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 13,909 votes</div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N19 - Yong Peng</b></div>
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MCA won by a majority of 2,493 votes.</div>
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Chinese 60%; Malay 32%; Indian 7%</div>
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Voters (2013): 22,522</div>
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Voters (2008): 18,328</div>
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<b>N20 - Semarang</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 7,314 votes.</div>
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Malay 82%; Chinese 13%; Others 4%</div>
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Voters (2013): 20,469</div>
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Voters (2008): 16,477</div>
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A huge number of voters (4,102 to be exact) opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). That just shows how popular Wee Ka Siong is, even among the Chinese in Ayer Hitam.</div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
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DAP may pull off an upset in Yong Peng, but by a small majority [500 votes]</div>
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UMNO to comfortably retain Semarang by a slightly reduced majority [7,000 votes]</div>
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Parliament-wise? I can't see the Deputy Education Minister losing here, although PR would continue to eat into his majority via Hu Pang Chaw, contesting under a PAS ticket. Expect about a majority of 11,000 votes due to the split-voting factor.<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P148) Ayer Hitam - MCA won by a majority of 7,310 votes</div>
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Yong Peng - DAP won by a majority of 2,475 votes</div>
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Semarang - UMNO won by a majority of 8,075 votes</div>
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<b>Overall analysis (Part 3):</b></div>
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Of the 3 parliament seats above, Muar is the hot one to watch, due to the popularity of the PAS candidates at state level, as well as the high level of split-voting which may determine a victory for either side, though I'm going with PKR on this one. Parit Sulong is an UMNO fortress that is not destined to be lost to PR anytime soon. Ayer Hitam can be considered MCA's last bastion of survival as it is quite a mixed constituency, although the Malays are the majority voters here (56%), followed by the Chinese (38%). Also, Wee Ka Siong is a popular big name for the whole of BN. If he loses tomorrow, surely Johor will fall to PR (though this is a very unlikely scenario).</div>
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Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?</div>
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Parliament: BN 5-4 PR</div>
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State: BN 12-8 PR</div>
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<br /></div>
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BN currently has an edge at parliament level as we speak. At this point in 2008, PR only won their solitary parliament seat in Bakri and no other Johor seats to back it up. If this continues to be the case, PR is going a long way towards banishing the notion that Johor will forever be a BN fortress. It's anyone's game at the moment, though I feel BN would still feel comfortable in Johor overall by the time I end this analysis before tomorrow's polling day.</div>
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Part 4 coming right up!<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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Parliament: BN 8-1 PR</div>
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State: BN 13-7 PR</div>
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</div>
</div>
Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-92054033687698771842013-04-30T23:18:00.003+08:002013-05-11T00:37:22.923+08:00Why Johor? (Part 2) - updated with actual<b><u>P143 - Pagoh</u></b><br />
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 12,581 votes</div>
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<br /></div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N7 - Bukit Serampang</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 7,250 votes.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Malay 70%; Chinese 26%; Indian 2%</div>
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Voters (2013): 21,480</div>
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Voters (2008): 18,880</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>N8 - Jorak</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 4,604 votes.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Malay 59%; Chinese 35%; Indian 5%</div>
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Voters (2013): 25,400</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Voters (2008): 21,162</div>
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<br /></div>
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727 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level).</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Bukit Serampang would still be retained by UMNO, but with a reduced majority [6,000 votes]</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Jorak would still be retained by UMNO, but with a reduced majority [3,500 votes]</div>
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<br /></div>
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Parliament-wise? I may assume that around 1,000 people are going to do split-voting again. UMNO to win by 10,000 votes because it's a prospective PM if Najib fails to gain 2/3 majority in Parliament.<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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(P143) Pagoh - UMNO won by a majority of 12,842 votes</div>
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Bukit Serampang - UMNO won by a majority of 7,845 votes</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Jorak - UMNO won by a majority of 3,726 votes</div>
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<b><u>P144 - Ledang</u></b></div>
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<br /></div>
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Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 7,617 votes</div>
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<br /></div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N9 - Gambir</b></div>
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MIC won by a majority of 2,463 votes.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Malay 55%; Chinese 40%; Indian 4%</div>
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Voters (2013): 21,427</div>
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Voters (2008): 18,724</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>N10 - Tangkak</b></div>
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MCA won by a majority of 295 votes.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Chinese 51%; Malay 38%; Indian 10%</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Voters (2013): 23,434</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Voters (2008): 19,198</div>
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<br /></div>
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</div>
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<b>N11 - Serom</b></div>
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UMNO won by a majority of 4,971 votes.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Malay 66%; Chinese 33%; Indian 1%</div>
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Voters (2013): 24,592</div>
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Voters (2008): 20,579</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Only 112 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliamant level). A can-be-ignored factor when determining power at federal level.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<b>My prediction:</b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Gambir would still be retained by MIC by a reduced majority [1,200 votes]</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Tangkak would see a probable DAP victory by a comfortable margin [1,500 votes]</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Serom would still be retained by UMNO, but with a reduced majority [4,000 votes]</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<br /></div>
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Parliament-wise? UMNO to win by 3,500 votes due to some expected changes at state level and split-voting is a negligible factor.<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
(P144) Ledang - UMNO won by a majority of 1,967 votes</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Gambir - MIC won by a majority of 310 votes</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Tangkak - DAP won by a majority of 1,537 votes</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Serom - UMNO won by a majority of 2,264 votes</div>
</div>
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<br />
<br /></div>
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<b><u>P145 - Bakri</u></b></div>
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</div>
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Parliament (2008): DAP won by a majority of 722 votes</div>
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<br /></div>
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State seats (2008):</div>
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<b>N12 - Bentayan</b></div>
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DAP won by a majority of 2,796 votes.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Chinese 73%; Malay 25%; Indian 2%</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Voters (2013): 23,490</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Voters (2008): 21,233</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<b>N13 - Sungai Abong</b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
PAS won by a majority of 1,550 votes.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Malay 51%; Chinese 45%; Indian 3%</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Voters (2013): 28,304</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Voters (2008): 21,592</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<b>N14 - Bukit Naning</b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
UMNO won by a majority of 2,895 votes.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Malay 59%; Chinese 38%; Others 2%</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Voters (2013): 15,535</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Voters (2008): 13,547</div>
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
729 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). As we can see in our analysis so far, split-voting can go 2 ways.</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<b>My prediction:</b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Bentayan would be retained by DAP with a bigger majority [4,000 votes]</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Sungai Abong would be retained by PAS with a bigger majority [2,500 votes]</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Bukit Naning would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,000 votes]</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Parliament-wise? DAP to win by 4,000 votes, assuming about 500 people goes split-voting in the same pattern observed.<br />
<br />
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<b>Actual results:</b></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
(P145) Bakri - DAP won by a majority of 5,067 votes</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Bentayan - DAP won by a majority of 6,847 votes</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Sungai Abong - PAS won by a majority of 3,813 votes</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Bukit Naning - UMNO won by a majority of 1,455 votes</div>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
<b>Overall analysis (Part 2):</b></div>
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We have the in-waiting Prime Minister (Muhyiddin Yassin) contesting in his usual Pagoh seat, which shouldn't pose too much of a problem in retaining the seat, though PAS would eat a bit further into his majority. Ledang may be considered a hot seat due to the large swing between 2004 and 2008, and the swing continues to be in favour of PR, though Hamim Samuri (UMNO) may just have enough in the bag to retain Ledang. Bakri on the other hand is fast becoming a potential fortress for DAP, thanks to Dr Sheikh Ibrahim (PAS) in establishing his strong presence in Sungai Abong, which goes a long way in helping DAP to retain Bakri come May 5.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?</div>
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Parliament: BN 3-3 PR</div>
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State: BN 9-5 PR</div>
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<br /></div>
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It may be hot at federal level as we're all tied up at the moment. At this point in 2008, PR only won their solitary parliament seat in Bakri and no other Johor seats to back it up. This is already looking better on paper, and I've only covered 6 seats so far. Expect more surprises coming along gradually.</div>
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<br /></div>
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Part 3 would be done soon. Stay tuned.</div>
<br />
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<b>Actual results:</b></div>
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Parliament: BN 5-1 PR</div>
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State: BN 9-5 PR</div>
Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-51019809436679450272013-04-30T22:40:00.002+08:002013-05-11T00:36:42.988+08:00Why Johor? (Part 1) - updated with actual<b><u>P140 - Segamat</u></b><br />
<br />
Parliament (2008): MIC won by a majority of 2,991 votes<br />
<br />
State seats (2008):<br />
<b>N1 - Buloh Kasap</b><br />
UMNO won by a majority of 4,466 votes.<br />
<br />
Malay 55%; Chinese 32%; Indian 12%<br />
Voters (2013): 18,816<br />
Voters (2008): 15,424<br />
<br />
<b>N2 - Jementah</b><br />
MCA won by a majority of 1,814 votes.<br />
<br />
Chinese 54%; Malay 36%; Indian 9%<br />
Voters (2013): 28,299<br />
Voters (2008): 25,284<br />
<br />
3,289 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliament level).<br />
<br />
<b>My prediction:</b><br />
Buloh Kasap would still be retained by UMNO, but with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]<br />
Jemetah would see a probable DAP victory, but not by much [500 votes]<br />
<br />
Parliament-wise? I may assume that around 3,000 people are going to do split-voting again. PKR to win by 1,000 votes then.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual results:</b><br />
(P140) Segamat - MIC won by a majority of 1,217 votes<br />
Buloh Kasap - UMNO won by a majority of 3,370 votes<br />
Jementah - DAP won by a majority of 2,196 votes<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><u>P141 - Sekijang</u></b><br />
<br />
Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 9,867 votes<br />
<br />
State seats (2008):<br />
<b>N3 - Pemanis</b><br />
GERAKAN won by a majority of 5,135 votes.<br />
<br />
Malay 56%; Chinese 39%; Indian 3%<br />
Voters (2013): 22,658<br />
Voters (2008): 19,355<br />
<br />
<b>N4 - Kemelah</b><br />
UMNO won by a majority of 5,435 votes.<br />
<br />
Malay 55%; Chinese 39%; Indian 6%<br />
Voters (2013): 20,471<br />
Voters (2008): 15,783<br />
<br />
Only 703 people opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliament level)<br />
<br />
<b>My prediction:</b><br />
Pemanis would be retained by GERAKAN, but with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]<br />
Kemelah would be retained by UMNO, but also with a reduced majority [3,500 votes]<br />
<br />
Parliament-wise? Not much split-voting observed here, should be a comfortable 6,000 votes victory for UMNO.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual results:</b><br />
(P141) Sekijang - UMNO won by a majority of 3,007 votes<br />
Pemanis - GERAKAN won by a majority of 1,329 votes<br />
Kemelah - UMNO won by a majority of 2,260 votes<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><u>P142 - Labis</u></b><br />
<br />
Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 4,094 votes<br />
<br />
State seats (2008):<br />
<b>N5 - Tenang</b><br />
UMNO won by a majority of 2,492 votes.<br />
However, the recent by-election (2011) saw UMNO won by 3,707 votes.<br />
<br />
Malay 49%; Chinese 38%; Indian 11%<br />
Voters (2013): 16,974<br />
Voters (2008): 14,511<br />
<br />
<b>N6 - Bekok</b><br />
MCA won by a majority of 1,944 votes.<br />
<br />
Chinese 54%; Malay 26%; Indian 18%<br />
Voters (2013): 20,813<br />
Voters (2008): 18,957<br />
<br />
Only 342 people opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliament level). Hence, it's not a huge factor here.<br />
<br />
<b>My prediction:</b><br />
Tenang would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,200 votes]<br />
Bekok would see a probable DAP victory by a small margin [600 votes]<br />
<br />
Parliament-wise? I may see a potential shock for DAP to win in Chua's fortress, maybe by 500 votes? I have a feeling more voters would go for split-voting rather than the mere 342 people last time around.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual results:</b><br />
(P142) Labis - MCA won by a majority of 353 votes<br />
Tenang - UMNO won by a majority of 1,586 votes<br />
Bekok - DAP won by a majority of 1,401 votes<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Overall analysis (Part 1):</b><br />
We have some big guns contesting from both sides (Chua Jui Meng for PKR in Segamat & Chua Tee Yong for MCA in Labis). I consider Segamat and Labis hot seats because those are potential opportunities for PR in order to march into Putrajaya. We all know a lot of Johoreans missed the boat in 2008, they didn't see it coming up north. Some are wanting to put it right come May 5, which is only a few days away. Chua Soi Lek remains the only MCA president in history to not contest in the elections. This can be seen as cowardice by majority of the Chinese voters in Labis, and may vote accordingly to kick out his son, just enough to open a door to a narrow DAP victory. P141 is a black seat for UMNO, literally in the bag.<br />
<br />
Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?<br />
Parliament: BN 1-2 PR<br />
State: BN 4-2 PR<br />
<br />
PR has a slight edge at the federal level, but surely lagging behind at the state level. Split-voting is definitely a factor here, it's quite a disease among some voters which continues to be prevalent.<br />
<br />
Part 2 comes up next after this.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual results:</b><br />
Parliament: BN 3-0 PR<br />
State: BN 4-2 PRAhmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-51883947937826571462013-04-07T11:32:00.002+08:002013-09-16T10:48:13.024+08:00GE 13 prediction (Part 5) - updated with actualFor the East Malaysia edition, I would only state the coalition names (i.e. BN & PR) because of the many local parties established in Sabah and Sarawak and I don't remember most of them.<br />
<br />
Sabah:<br />
P166 (Labuan) - BN to win by 10,000 votes<br />
P167 (Kudat) - BN to win by 8,000 votes<br />
P168 (Kota Marudu) - BN to win by 5,000 votes<br />
P169 (Kota Belud) - PR to win by 500 votes (BN won)<br />
P170 (Tuaran) - BN to win by 3,000 votes<br />
P171 (Sepanggar) - BN to win by 1,500 votes<br />
P172 (Kota Kinabalu) - PR to win by 7,500 votes<br />
P173 (Putatan) - BN to win by 5,500 votes<br />
P174 (Penampang) - PR to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P175 (Papar) - BN to win by 6,500 votes<br />
P176 (Kimanis) - BN to win by 6,000 votes<br />
P177 (Beaufort) - BN to win by 4,500 votes<br />
P178 (Sipitang) - BN to win by 7,000 votes<br />
P179 (Ranau) - BN to win by 9,000 votes<br />
P180 (Keningau) - BN to win by 2,000 votes<br />
P181 (Tenom) - BN to win by 8,000 votes<br />
P182 (Pensiangan) - PR to win by 500 votes (BN won)<br />
P183 (Beluran) - BN to win by 6,000 votes<br />
P184 (Libaran) - BN to win by 6,500 votes<br />
P185 (Batu Sapi) - BN to win by 4,000 votes<br />
P186 (Sandakan) - PR to win by 3,000 votes<br />
P187 (Kinabatangan) - BN to win by 5,000 votes<br />
P188 (Silam) - BN to win by 9,000 votes<br />
P189 (Semporna) - BN to win by 18,000 votes<br />
P190 (Tawau) - PR to win by 1,000 votes (BN won)<br />
P191 (Kalabakan) - BN to win by 15,000 votes (if there is a candidate =3)<br />
<br />
BN 20-6 PR<br />
<br />
Sabah contributes 26 seats in the race to form the next federal government (11.7% of total parliament seats). The Land Below The Wind has been under opposition rule before in the 1980s until the early 1990s (Project IC in Sabah was the cause of downfall, and I have no idea how many of these Project IC people populate Sabah, but I am sure as hell there's a lot of them currently). So you can imagine how you feel as a Sabahan when your state is flooded with immigrants given ICs to vote for BN. You feel powerless to do anything. However, I do see some hope for PR as they are certain to do better than in 2008, although it will never be able to dislodge Musa Aman from his current position of power. PR only won 1 parliament seat, which is obviously Sabah's capital city of Kota Kinabalu. Expect them to retain KK and cause a surprise in some other seats.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score:</b><br />
<b>BN 23-3 PR</b><br />
<br />
Sarawak:<br />
P192 (Mas Gading) - BN to win by 3,000 votes<br />
P193 (Santubong) - BN to win by 12,000 votes<br />
P194 (Petra Jaya) - BN to win by 14,000 votes<br />
P195 (Bandar Kuching) - PR to win by 15,000 votes<br />
P196 (Stampin) - PR to win by 12,000 votes<br />
P197 (Kota Samarahan) - BN to win by 13,500 votes<br />
P198 (Mambong) - BN to win by 7,000 votes<br />
P199 (Serian) - BN to win by 9,000 votes<br />
P200 (Batang Sadong) - BN to win by 6,500 votes<br />
P201 (Batang Lupar) - BN to win by 5,500 votes<br />
P202 (Sri Aman) - BN to win by 8,000 votes<br />
P203 (Lubok Antu) - BN to win by 7,000 votes<br />
P204 (Betong) - BN to win by 8,000 votes<br />
P205 (Saratok) - BN to win by 4,000 votes<br />
P206 (Kuala Rajang) - BN to win by 8,000 votes<br />
P207 (Igan) - BN to win by 5,500 votes<br />
P208 (Sarikei) - PR to win by 4,500 votes<br />
P209 (Julau) - BN to win by 4,000 votes<br />
P210 (Kanowit) - BN to win by 2,500 votes<br />
P211 (Lanang) - PR to win by 8,000 votes<br />
P212 (Sibu) - PR to win by 500 votes<br />
P213 (Mukah) - BN to win by 10,000 votes<br />
P214 (Selangau) - BN to win by 2,000 votes<br />
P215 (Kapit) - BN to win by 500 votes<br />
P216 (Hulu Rajang) - BN to win by 7,000 votes<br />
P217 (Bintulu) - PR to win by 1,500 votes (BN won)<br />
P218 (Sibuti) - BN to win by 5,000 votes<br />
P219 (Miri) - PR to win by 5,000 votes<br />
P220 (Baram) - BN to win by 4,000 votes<br />
P221 (Limbang) - BN to win by 3,500 votes<br />
P222 (Lawas) - BN to win by 2,500 votes<br />
<br />
BN 24-7 PR<br />
<br />
Sarawak has 31 seats on offer, which makes up a whopping 14% of total parliamentary seats. Hence, the importance of Sabah and Sarawak can never be downplayed in forming the next federal government. Without Sabah and Sarawak, BN would only have a majority of 5 seats back in 2008 and live in fear about losing power. As we all know, the 2011 state elections was held for Sarawak, whereby out of the 71 state seats, PR only managed to win 15. So much for their dreams of denying BN their 2/3 majority in the state assembly, for which they needed at least 24 seats. However, it would shape how many parliamentary seats are expected to fall to PR in GE 13. Assuming they have done further groundwork since 2011, they will make gains as compared to the 1 seat won by them in 2008 (Bandar Kuching). Particularly in Chinese-majority seats (i.e. Bandar Kuching, Stampin, Sarikei, Lanang and Miri), these would be DAP's forte. They would swing with their brothers and sisters in Peninsula Malaysia and vote for the opposition like they did in 2011. However, it will be insufficient to affect Taib's position in Sarawak as being the man that holds the glue for Sarawak BN. Without him, BN would have lost more seats during the state elections. Since when Taib was a liability for BN? You opposition fellas better focus on something else rather than trying to bring down the White Rajah. Anyhow, at the end of the day, there are surely gains to be made by PR in Sarawak, though they would fail in forming the next federal government. They would have to be satisfied with denying BN their 2/3 majority again, which may see Najib pave the way for Muhyiddin to become the 7th PM.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score:</b><br />
<b>BN 25 - 6 PR</b><br />
<br />
Total score for East Malaysia:<br />
BN 44 - 13 PR (2013)<br />
BN 55 - 2 PR (2008)<br />
<br />
Overall score for all 222 seats:<br />
BN 140 - 82 PR (2013)<br />
BN 140 - 82 PR (2012)<br />
<br />
Well well well, at the end of the day, I predict that PR would continue to deny BN their 2/3 majority in Parliament with exactly the same number of seats. The only thing that changes around here is where the seats would come from. No doubt PR would rely on more seats from East Malaysia in their efforts to dislodge BN after 56 years of ruling the nation. They can only make it happen in GE 14. This GE would be about consolidating their position as a capable alternative to BN (sounds defensive as it may sound, but it may be a reality).<br />
<br />
Anyhow, Parliament is already dissolved, when is the election date eh EC? <br />
<br />
<b>Actual score for East Malaysia:</b><br />
<b>BN 48 - 9 PR</b><br />
<br />
<b>Overall score for all 222 seats:</b><br />
<b>BN 133 - 89</b><br />
<br />
<br />Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-51096708761002049072013-04-06T23:05:00.001+08:002013-09-16T10:45:39.365+08:00GE 13 prediction (Part 4) - updated with actualNegeri Sembilan:<br />
P126 (Jelebu) - UMNO to win by 10,000 votes<br />
P127 (Jempol) - UMNO to win by 10,500 votes<br />
P128 (Seremban) - DAP to win by 500 votes<br />
P129 (Kuala Pilah) - UMNO to win by 8,000 votes<br />
P130 (Rasah) - DAP to win by 7,500 votes<br />
P131 (Rembau) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes<br />
P132 (Teluk Kemang) - MIC to win by 5,000 votes (PKR won)<br />
P133 (Tampin) - UMNO to win by 12,000 votes<br />
<br />
BN 6-2 PR<br />
<br />
I don't expect PR to make further inroads into Negeri Sembilan like they did in 2008, especially when they won 15 out of the 36 state seats at the time, which was a real surprise. However, if we were to recall the Bagan Pinang by-election, Isa Samad got back into the fold very convincingly, which shows his popularity in Negeri Sembilan. Hence, my deduction is that PR won't get that close again, unless the voters prove it otherwise.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score:</b><br />
<b>BN 5-3 PR</b><br />
<br />
Malacca:<br />
P134 (Masjid Tanah) - UMNO to win by 9,000 votes<br />
P135 (Alor Gajah) - MCA to win by 7,500 votes<br />
P136 (Tangga Batu) - UMNO to win by 15,000 votes<br />
P137 (Bukit Katil) - PKR to win by 2,000 votes<br />
P138 (Kota Melaka) - DAP to win by 5,000 votes<br />
P139 (Jasin) - UMNO to win by 8,000 votes<br />
<br />
BN 4-2 PR<br />
<br />
It's mostly status quo except for Bukit Katil, which I consider a semi-urban area and the tendency for these areas to strongly support PR. If PKR fields the same candidate, he may have a shot. There may be further progress by PR into BN's fortress, but it would be insufficient for them to dislodge the current state government led by Ali Rustam.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score:</b><br />
<b>BN 4-2 PR</b><br />
<br />
Johor:<br />
P140 (Segamat) - DAP to win by 1,000 votes (MIC won)<br />
P141 (Sekijang) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes<br />
P142 (Labis) - DAP to win by 500 votes (MCA won)<br />
P143 (Pagoh) - UMNO to win by 9,000 votes<br />
P144 (Ledang) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes<br />
P145 (Bakri) - DAP to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P146 (Muar) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes<br />
P147 (Parit Sulong) - UMNO to win by 12,000 votes<br />
P148 (Ayer Hitam) - MCA to win by 10,000 votes<br />
P149 (Sri Gading) - UMNO to win by 6,500 votes<br />
P150 (Batu Pahat) - UMNO to win by 8,500 votes (PKR won)<br />
P151 (Simpang Renggam) - GERAKAN to win by 3,000 votes<br />
P152 (Kluang) - DAP to win by 2,000 votes<br />
P153 (Sembrong) - UMNO to win by 7,000 votes<br />
P154 (Mersing) - UMNO to win by 13,000 votes<br />
P155 (Tenggara) - UMNO to win by 14,000 votes<br />
P156 (Kota Tinggi) - UMNO to win by 16,000 votes<br />
P157 (Pengerang) - UMNO to win by 11,000 votes (if they have an opponent) =3<br />
P158 (Tebrau) - MCA to win by 5,000 votes<br />
P159 (Pasir Gudang) - UMNO to win by 15,000 votes<br />
P160 (Johor Bahru) - UMNO to win by 20,000 votes<br />
P161 (Pulai) - UMNO to win by 18,000 votes<br />
P162 (Gelang Patah) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes (DAP won)<br />
P163 (Kulai) - DAP to win by 500 votes<br />
P164 (Pontian) - UMNO to win by 12,000 votes<br />
P165 (Tanjung Piai) - MCA to win by 4,500 votes<br />
<br />
BN 21-5 PR<br />
<br />
We all know about PR's charge into Johor for this GE. If there is to be a change in federal government, what better place can they start with? The state where UMNO was born. Despite their valiant efforts, I don't think they can win more than 5 parliament seats. But what we can observe is the majority slashes in most of the seats this coming GE as compared to 2008. It won't be enough though.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score:</b><br />
<b>BN 21-5 PR</b><br />
<br />
Total score for 3 states above:<br />
BN 31 - 9 PR (2013)<br />
BN 35 - 5 PR (2008)<br />
<br />
Total score for Peninsula Malaysia:<br />
BN 96 - 69 PR (2013)<br />
BN 85 - 80 PR (2008)<br />
<br />
As you can see dear readers, this is how pivotal Sabah and Sarawak is in determining the next federal government to be formed. 57 seats from East Malaysia, and most of the seats are considered fixed deposits for BN. Based on my prediction, PR needs at least 5 seats from the 57 to deny them the all-important 2/3 majority in Parliament. Or... to get to the magic 112 seats to form a simple majority, they need a whopping 43 seats from East Malaysia, which is very, very unlikely. Their main strength that must be utilised is right here in Peninsula Malaysia. To form the federal government, they really need to perform in Peninsula Malaysia (at least to win 100 seats so that it would be attainable to get at least 12 seats from East Malaysia). Otherwise, they can kiss their hopes goodbye and only hope to deny BN their 2/3 majority, whom I have to admit is looking solid under Najib's leadership.<br />
<br />
Nonetheless, I'll be doing my part to vote in this coming GE in order to help my selected political divide to be the next federal government. Overseas students, if you're reading this, please fly back and vote for your future. It will shape our country's policies for the next 5 years. If change doesn't come now, it won't happen in the next 50 years. Make it count. Tell your family, relatives, friends, everyone you know. Play a part, you can influence them.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score for 3 states above:</b><br />
<b>BN 30 - 10 PR</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Total score for Peninsula Malaysia:</b><br />
<b>BN 85 - 80 PR</b>Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-20124800761411233552013-04-06T20:49:00.001+08:002013-09-16T10:44:15.315+08:00GE 13 prediction (Part 3) - updated with actualPahang:<br />
P78 (Cameron Highlands) - MIC to win by 2,500 votes<br />
P79 (Lipis) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes<br />
P80 (Raub) - DAP to win by 500 votes<br />
P81 (Jerantut) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes (UMNO won)<br />
P82 (Indera Mahkota) - UMNO to win by 6,500 votes (PKR won)<br />
P83 (Kuantan) - PKR to win by 1,500 votes<br />
P84 (Paya Besar) - UMNO to win by 7,500 votes<br />
P85 (Pekan) - UMNO to win by 20,000 votes<br />
P86 (Maran) - UMNO to win by 5,500 votes<br />
P87 (Kuala Krau) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes<br />
P88 (Temerloh) - UMNO to win by 5,500 votes (PAS won)<br />
P89 (Bentong) - MCA to win by 8,000 votes<br />
P90 (Bera) - UMNO to win by 2,500 votes<br />
P91 (Rompin) - UMNO to win by 10,000 votes<br />
<br />
BN 11-3 PR<br />
<br />
Adnan's wish for zero opposition seems far-fetched. And his ears would remain intact as Bentong would be retained by MCA. =3 However, expect PR to continue eating into BN's majority in Pahang. PR would gain 2 seats via Raub and Jerantut, but would lose Indera Mahkota. BN's fortress remains unaffected as this is also Najib's state. Pekan is there for us to see, full of army votes.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score:</b><br />
<b>BN 10-4 PR</b><br />
<br />
Selangor:<br />
P92 (Sabak Bernam) - PKR to win by 500 votes (UMNO won)<br />
P93 (Sungai Besar) - UMNO to win by 6,500 votes<br />
P94 (Hulu Selangor) - MIC to win by 4,000 votes<br />
P95 (Tanjong Karang) - UMNO to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P96 (Kuala Selangor) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes (UMNO won)<br />
P97 (Selayang) - MCA to win by 5,000 votes (PKR won)<br />
P98 (Gombak) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes (PKR won)<br />
P99 (Ampang) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes (PKR won)<br />
P100 (Pandan) - PKR to win by 500 votes<br />
P101 (Hulu Langat) - UMNO to win by 8,000 votes (PAS won)<br />
P102 (Serdang) - DAP to win by 10,000 votes<br />
P103 (Puchong) - DAP to win by 7,000 votes<br />
P104 (Kelana Jaya) - MCA to win by 6,500 votes (PKR won)<br />
P105 (PJ Selatan) - MCA to win by 1,500 votes (PKR won)<br />
P106 (PJ Utara) - DAP to win by 15,000 votes<br />
P107 (Subang) - PKR to win by 2,500 votes<br />
P108 (Shah Alam) - PAS to win by 2,000 votes<br />
P109 (Kapar) - PKR to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P110 (Klang) - DAP to win by 6,000 votes<br />
P111 (Kota Raja) - PAS to win by 11,000 votes<br />
P112 (Kuala Langat) - UMNO to win by 9,000 votes (PKR won)<br />
P113 (Sepang) - PAS to win by 500 votes<br />
<br />
BN 10-12 PR<br />
<br />
In an interesting battle for Malaysia's most developed state, the state government has done well overall and Khalid Ibrahim is no man's puppet. He just goes about in his job and has little time for politics. It would be a big loss to Selangor if he's not retained as MB (particularly if PR loses the state assembly). However, I do expect BN to regain lost ground in this GE. From just 5 seats, they would double their tally.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score:</b><br />
<b>BN 5-17 PR</b><br />
<br />
WP Kuala Lumpur:<br />
P114 (Kepong) - DAP to win by 20,000 votes<br />
P115 (Batu) - GERAKAN to win by 1,500 votes (PKR won)<br />
P116 (Wangsa Maju) - MCA to win by 3,000 votes (PKR won)<br />
P117 (Segambut) - DAP to win by 3,500 votes<br />
P118 (Setiawangsa) - UMNO to win by 10,000 votes<br />
P119 (Titiwangsa) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes (UMNO won)<br />
P120 (Bukit Bintang) - DAP to win by 12,000 votes<br />
P121 (Lembah Pantai) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes (PKR won)<br />
P122 (Seputeh) - DAP to win by 30,000 votes<br />
P123 (Cheras) - DAP to win by 25,000 votes<br />
P124 (Bandar Tun Razak) - PKR to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P125 (Putrajaya) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes<br />
<br />
BN 5-7 PR<br />
<br />
Basically, KL is still quite anti-BN since the tsunami. The freeflow of information on the Internet has made the voters' decisions easier. However, we should not underestimate the effort that BN has put in to win back those lost seats. Despite that, I still feel PR would still have the edge over BN in KL. Not to mention I'll be voting in Segambut, so I can roughly feel the overall sentiments in my area.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score:</b><br />
<b>BN 3-9 PR</b><br />
<br />
Total score for 3 states above:<br />
BN 26 - 22 PR (2013)<br />
BN 19 - 29 PR (2008)<br />
<br />
Total score after 125 seats:<br />
BN 65 - 60 PR (2013)<br />
BN 50 - 75 PR (2008)<br />
<br />
In 2008, PR won 75 seats out of the 1st 125 seats on offer, and that was sufficient to deny BN 2/3 majority in Parliament. This time around, they are 15 seats away to deny BN 2/3 majority once more. They will need more of those seats from the southern states of Negeri Sembilan, Malacca and Johore. I will cover the remaining 3 Peninsula states in Part 4.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score for 3 states above:</b><br />
<b>BN 18 - 30 PR</b><br />
<br />
<b>Total score after 125 seats:</b><br />
<b>BN 55 - 70 PR</b>Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-26896171725593280722013-04-06T19:48:00.003+08:002013-05-06T07:45:43.025+08:00GE 13 prediction (Part 2) - updated with actualPenang:<br />
P41 (Kepala Batas) - UMNO to win by 6,000 votes<br />
P42 (Tasek Gelugor) - UMNO to win by 3,500 votes<br />
P43 (Bagan) - DAP to win by 15,000 votes<br />
P44 (Permatang Pauh) - PKR to win by 7,000 votes<br />
P45 (Bukit Mertajam) - DAP to win by 10,500 votes<br />
P46 (Batu Kawan) - DAP to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P47 (Nibong Tebal) - UMNO to win by 3,500 votes (PKR won)<br />
P48 (Bukit Bendera) - DAP to win by 4,500 votes<br />
P49 (Tanjong) - DAP to win by 8,000 votes<br />
P50 (Jelutong) - DAP to win by 3,000 votes<br />
P51 (Bukit Gelugor) - DAP to win by 10,000 votes<br />
P52 (Bayan Baru) - PKR to win by 1,500 votes<br />
P53 (Balik Pulau) - UMNO to win by 5,500 votes<br />
<br />
BN 4-9 PR<br />
<br />
Since the huge political tsunami landed in Penang back in 2008, the state government has done quite well overall, majority of the people would be happy to continue with them. However, BN would regain a few of the parliament seats that they lost which would not affect PR's position in Penang significantly. PR may remain as state government with a reduced majority due to Penang being a Malay-majority state a few years ago and UMNO would be looking to capitalise on their fear-mongering tactics among the Penang Malays to ensure that they get the lion's share of the Malay votes.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score:</b><br />
<b>BN 3-10 PR</b><br />
<br />
Perak:<br />
P54 (Grik) - PPP to win by 2,000 votes<br />
P55 (Lenggong) - UMNO to win by 4,500 votes<br />
P56 (Larut) - UMNO to win by 2,500 votes<br />
P57 (Parit Buntar) - PAS to win by 2,000 votes<br />
P58 (Bagan Serai) - UMNO to win by 2,500 votes<br />
P59 (Bukit Gantang) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P60 (Taiping) - DAP to win by 4,500 votes<br />
P61 (Padang Rengas) - UMNO to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P62 (Sungai Siput) - PSM to win by 1,500 votes<br />
P63 (Tambun) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes<br />
P64 (Ipoh Timor) - DAP to win by 10,000 votes<br />
P65 (Ipoh Barat) - DAP to win by 6,000 votes<br />
P66 (Batu Gajah) - DAP to win by 17,000 votes<br />
P67 (Kuala Kangsar) - PAS to win by 500 votes (UMNO won)<br />
P68 (Beruas) - DAP to win by 2,500 votes<br />
P69 (Parit) - UMNO to win by 1,500 votes<br />
P70 (Kampar) - DAP to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P71 (Gopeng) - PKR to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P72 (Tapah) - MIC to win by 3,000 votes<br />
P73 (Pasir Salak) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes<br />
P74 (Lumut) - MCA to win by 3,500 votes (PKR won)<br />
P75 (Bagan Datok) - UMNO to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P76 (Telok Intan) - GERAKAN to win by 500 votes (DAP won)<br />
P77 (Tanjong Malim) - MCA to win by 8,000 votes<br />
<br />
BN 13-11 PR<br />
<br />
The delicate issue would be whether the people of Perak are still angry with the change in state government that happened back in 2009 due to frogs. Will Nizar be MB again if PR manages to win back the state? That will be pretty interesting to see. Parliament level-wise, I predicted a status quo for Perak as compared to 2008 whereby BN also won 13 seats. In terms of state government, I think BN would nick it, justifying their takeover back in 2009 despite the people's protests at the time.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score:</b><br />
<b>BN 12-12 PR</b><br />
<br />
Total score for 2 states above:<br />
BN 17 - 20 PR (2013)<br />
BN 15 - 22 PR (2008)<br />
<br />
Total score after 77 seats:<br />
BN 39 - 38 PR (2013)<br />
BN 31 - 45 PR (2008)<br />
<br />
Tight race yes? I've put up comparisons so that you know how the movement is predicted to be for this coming GE. As you can see, it would be 16 seat swing to BN (8 gained by BN, 8 lost by PR) after Perak. In my Part 3, I would cover Pahang, Selangor and KL. Those would be interesting battlegrounds that would shape the urban and rural votes.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual score for 2 states above:</b><br />
<b>BN 15 - 22 PR</b><br />
<br />
<b>Actual total score after 77 seats:</b><br />
<b>BN 37 - 40 PR</b><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-30400761078583264492013-04-06T19:10:00.003+08:002013-05-06T07:34:19.381+08:00GE 13 prediction (Part 1) - updated with actualI'm just gonna post my predictions, as I'm lazy to post justifications for each seat as to my predictions (due to time constraints). However, I will provide an overall view to why I predict as such (short and sweet it will be). Besides, they are called predictions, aren't they? It doesn't have to be correct because anything can happen on Election Day and the preceding campaign period leading up to the polls. And I will only be touching on parliamentary results, because that is where most of the power lies (in terms of making policies and even up to determining bus routes!)<br />
<br />
Perlis:<br />
P1 (Padang Besar) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes<br />
P2 (Kangar) - UMNO to win by 10,500 votes<br />
P3 (Arau) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes (UMNO won)<br />
<br />
BN 2-1 PR<br />
<br />
Perlis is an UMNO fortress, but why Arau? Because the PAS candidate has been well-known there and has contested frequently in the past, and he's contesting again this GE. A parliament seat from Perlis at last for PR?<br />
<br />
<b>Actual results:</b><br />
<b>BN 3-0 PR</b><br />
<br />
Kedah:<br />
P4 (Langkawi) - UMNO to win by 6,000 votes<br />
P5 (Jerlun) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes<br />
P6 (Kubang Pasu) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes<br />
P7 (Padang Terap) - UMNO to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P8 (Pokok Sena) - PAS to win by 2,500 votes<br />
P9 (Alor Setar) - PKR to win by 2,000 votes<br />
P10 (Kuala Kedah) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes (PKR won)<br />
P11 (Pendang) - PAS to win by 3,000 votes (UMNO won)<br />
P12 (Jerai) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes (UMNO won)<br />
P13 (Sik) - UMNO to win by 500 votes<br />
P14 (Merbok) - UMNO to win by 7,500 votes<br />
P15 (Sungai Petani) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes (PKR won)<br />
P16 (Baling) - PAS to win by 4,000 votes (UMNO won)<br />
P17 (Padang Serai) - PKR to win by 1,000 votes<br />
P18 (Kulim Bandar Baharu) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes<br />
<br />
BN 9-6 PR<br />
<br />
The writings are on the wall for Kedah. The state government, despite its record of being corruption-free during its tenure, was perceived as not doing enough for the people. Some voters would go for split-ticket voting (PR for parliament and BN for state), but to what extent? I assume it's gonna be limited, so expect BN to regain some of its parliament seats lost in 2008 and become the state government once more.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual results:</b><br />
<b>BN 10-5 PR</b><br />
<br />
Kelantan:<br />
P19 (Tumpat) - PAS to win by 5,000 votes<br />
P20 (Pengkalan Chepa) - PAS to win by 8,000 votes<br />
P21 (Kota Bharu) - PAS to win by 6,000 votes<br />
P22 (Pasir Mas) - PAS to win by 4,500 votes<br />
P23 (Rantau Panjang) - PAS to win by 3,000 votes<br />
P24 (Kubang Kerian) - PAS to win by 2,500 votes<br />
P25 (Bachok) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes (PAS won)<br />
P26 (Ketereh) - UMNO to win by 3,500 votes<br />
P27 (Tanah Merah) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes<br />
P28 (Pasir Puteh) - PAS to win by 2,500 votes<br />
P29 (Machang) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes<br />
P30 (Jeli) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes<br />
P31 (Kuala Krai) - PAS to win by 1,500 votes<br />
P32 (Gua Musang) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes<br />
<br />
BN 6-8 PR<br />
<br />
There is no doubt that UMNO has been putting a limitless effort to break PAS's stranglehold in Kelantan for the past 23 years. Their T (Tukar - Change) slogan up against the K (Kekal - Maintain) slogan by PAS. I expect that BN would be able to win back some of the parliament seats, as well as reducing the state government's majority, but PAS should still be able to retain Kelantan, albeit losing their 2/3 majority in the state assembly.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual results:</b><br />
<b>BN 5-9 PR</b><br />
<br />
Terengganu:<br />
P33 (Besut) - UMNO to win by 7,000 votes<br />
P34 (Setiu) - UMNO to win by 5,500 votes<br />
P35 (Kuala Nerus) - PAS to win by 500 votes<br />
P36 (Kuala Terengganu) - PAS to win by 4,500 votes<br />
P37 (Marang) - PAS to win by 1,500 votes<br />
P38 (Hulu Terengganu) - UMNO to win by 10,000 votes<br />
P39 (Dungun) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes (PAS won)<br />
P40 (Kemaman) - UMNO to win by 10,000 votes<br />
<br />
BN 5-3 PR<br />
<br />
We have seen extreme swings in Terengganu for the past few elections. 1999 was PAS's year, only for them to be trounced in 2004. In 2008, it was quite status quo whereby BN was able to maintain its stranglehold in Terengganu. It will take quite an effort for PAS to defeat UMNO, though one must consider the effect of Ustaz Azhar Idrus's popularity among the young voters nationwide as he comes from Terengganu. If PAS is able to galvanise this, they might just take Terengganu, but I heavily doubt it would be so. Though, I think PAS might be able to nick Kuala Nerus from UMNO.<br />
<br />
<b>Actual results:</b><br />
<b>BN 4-4 PR</b><br />
<br />
Total score after 40 seats:<br />
BN 22 - 18 PR (2013)<br />
BN 16 - 24 PR (2008)<br />
<br />
As you can see, I think BN would be able to claw back some of their lost ground in the 4 states that I mentioned above, as my predictions would mean a swing of 12 seats in favour of BN (6 seats gained by BN, 6 seats lost by PR). I will continue with Part 2 soon.<br />
<br />
Actual score after 40 seats:<br />
BN 22 - 18 PR<br />
<br />
Apparently the number seats won by BN is right on the dot with my predictions, although I did get a few seats wrong, which I have bracketed the actual result for the seats that I predicted wrongly.Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-71829385477460717402013-03-31T01:00:00.002+08:002013-03-31T01:00:17.577+08:00GE 13Salam kepada sesiapa yang sudi baca blog saya.<br />
<br />
As we all know, Malaysia's 13th General Election ("GE 13") is coming sooner or later. It all depends on when our Prime Minister ("PM") dissolves Parliament after he holds the meeting with the King (Agong). Parliament will dissolve itself on April 28, regardless of whether the PM has met the Agong beforehand or otherwise.<br />
<br />
I have put my predictions long on hold due to my busy schedule with work and classes. For me, I won't be able to post my full predictions anytime soon due to my current commitments to work. However, I can only say that no political divide would get the super-majority (2/3) when the next government elected, as the context of political battle had radically changed since the 2008 mini tsunami. More and more people are making informed choices due to the availability of information.<br />
<br />
However, I would like to comment on DAP's aim to make inroads into Johor. We all know recently that DAP supremo (Lim Kit Siang - "LKS") has announced with Anwar's agreement that he will contest in the MCA fortress of Gelang Patah in order to break the stranglehold of Barisan Nasional ("BN") in UMNO's birth state of Johor. He is taking on a huge risk by leaving his Ipoh Timur constituency in order to lead the charge. However, winning or losing would be another matter altogether, and it's not uncommon for LKS to win or lose. He had his fair share of winning and losing in long and eventful political career. The most important psychological factor in the decision is to show that Pakatan Rakyat ("PR") is capable of being a government-in-waiting if it wins in GE 13. Considering that the Johorean Chinese population missed the last mini tsunami in 2008, they are more determined to make up for it in this year's GE 13. This could tilt the battle in LKS's favour for Gelang Patah, although I still ought to believe that the Johorean Malay support for BN is still pretty high, if anyone still remembers the Tenang by-election back in 2011.<br />
<br />
Also, as just announced today, another of DAP's big guns (Liew Chin Tong) is contesting for the Kluang parliamentary seat, leaving Bukit Bendera in Penang in order to boost PR's charge into Johor. He is a smart lad from what I observe, and it's also quite a risk for him to take as it removes the guarantee of his voice being in Parliament after this GE 13. However, with Penang being mostly in good hands, it may be a worthwhile move to make, particularly Kluang has a voter demographics of 52% Chinese, 38% Malays and 9% Indians. Also, from 2004 to 2008, the swing was massive (from a majority of 18,698 to 3,781), although it still resulted in an MCA victory. Nonetheless, it shows that MCA's grip may be waning as we speak. Almost half of their parliamentary seats came from Johor, where they mainly rely on mixed seats, although most of it are Malay majority, but not by much. This shows MCA's reliance on Johor Malay voters (also mainly BN supporters) to contribute for the parliamentary seats.<br />
<br />
Don't forget that we have Salahuddin Ayub of PAS coming back to Johor as a potential MB candidate should PR win a simple majority in the state assembly. He's also leaving the comforts of Kubang Kerian in Kelantan to boost PR's charge into UMNO's bastion as well. He is a Johorean by birth, hence it's his own decision agreed by the PAS leaders to come back to Johor.<br />
<br />
So, it comes to the question: How well can BN defend its main bastion in Peninsula Malaysia?<br />
<br />
My answer is as follows: Most probably BN would lose 5 seats at most, particularly Gelang Patah and Kluang (2 of the seats I mentioned above). Currently they limited PR to just 1 parliament seat in 2008 (Bakri), but Bakri is expected to be retained by PR. Hence, BN's hold on Johor remain solid, although there will definitely be chinks in the armour this GE 13.<br />
<br />
As we come to the end of March, Parliament will definitely be dissolved next month one way or another.<br />
Enjoy the political war folks!Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-29601871909347646502012-04-04T22:09:00.002+08:002012-04-04T22:10:42.959+08:00Aku dah lama tak updateAku sekarang dah kerja untuk 1 bulan. Semua aktiviti pembaziran masaku telah tergendala, seperti GE prediction, PS3, dan macam-macam lagi.<div><br /></div><div>Mak aku cakap, kawan2 dia cakap GE bulan 6 nih... So kiranya betul, aku tak sabar nak pergi mengundi nih...</div>Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-86656450908049004272011-12-30T23:23:00.001+08:002011-12-30T23:24:55.979+08:00Planned protest against demolishing TTDI marketAs a TTDI resident, I feel obliged to join the protests at 10am tomorrow, as me and my mom always buy our groceries there. I want to add one more voice to the protests, making it more lively than it will be.Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-13409787917864691692011-12-30T09:06:00.002+08:002011-12-30T09:35:52.791+08:00Nearing the end of 2011Another year has come and go. It only feels like yesterday that I was still in my summer holidays before continuing my final year degree studies. Well, it wasn't exactly a holiday as I underwent imternship in KPMG for 2 months (including spending a month in Johor). Going to Kulim Berhad is still fresh in my mind, and they make headlines very recently with their intention to sell off their majority stake in QSR Brands, which in turn owns KFC. I wish I would still be an auditor now and earn myself another trip to Ulu Tiram and bombard the employees with a lot of questions with regards to the stake in QSR.<div><br /></div><div>Oh well, what can we look forward in 2012? I'm already 22, going on to 23 next October. The most anticipated event would be the General Election. With the uncertain political on-goings in Malaysia, it's hard to determine where the votes would go this time around. I'm a first-time voter, like thousands of others who had registered post-GE 12. These 1st-time voters would be a make-or-break in forming the next government of Malaysia. But, this is only crucial if Sabah and Sarawak tilted more in favour of the opposition, which is highly unlikely in Sabah, due to the lack of leadership in PR, as well as the lack of recognition towards local-based parties in Sabah and Sarawak. I can only hope that the opposition would give way to the local-based parties to face UMNO heads on in Sabah, then only we would have a fighting chance to add to the 1 parliamentary seat of Kota Kinabalu. The main priority would be to avoid 3-cornered fights or more, but I don't see that issue being solved anytime soon. No compromise is the big problem. There's no problem of compromise in Peninsula Malaysia, but in East Malaysia, that seems to be persistent. I can only predict at best, PR would be adding 5-10 seats from East Malaysia in addition to the ones they currently hold (Kuching, Sibu, Kota Kinabalu), but that would be insufficient to win even a simple majority to form the new federal government.</div><div><br /></div><div>BN also has nothing much to worry about (despite whatever they are saying in the media, be it mainstream or alternative), as their 3R strategy (race, religion, royalty) is working very well in order to swing the Malay votes back into their fold for the next GE, but they would still struggle in the urban areas. Lucky for them, there is more non-urban areas than urban areas. This sort of imbalance is a concern for Malaysia's regional development policies for the future, as they know rural areas rely mainly on the mainstream media, and that's where their main vote base is. They have a fighting chance in Penang to defeat the PR-led government where they swing most of the Malays to their side over the last 3 years with endless propaganda. Kelantan? Maybe they can eat into the current majority held by the PAS-led government, but that's about it. They are wary of Nik Aziz as a formidable political foe in Kelantan, and they're going to have a hard time uniting UMNO Kelantan, with all the in-fighting going on. Selangor? It seems they can defeat PR with the issue of trash not being collected. Sabotage is the only thing they need, and it's working well. Kedah? Very uncertain on where the votes would go. Perak? That would be a very interesting battlefield, their chance to justify the power grab that happened back in February 2009. But it may also be a chance for the silent voters to show their discontent at the power grab.</div><div><br /></div><div>Well, that's the states being currently held by PR. What about those held by BN? Perlis is as safe as the Rock of Gibraltar. Terengganu is unpredictable whereby voters can extremely swing from one side to another (as it happened during the 1999 GE, they were solidly behind PAS, only for them to thrash PAS in 2004). There's also a huge civil war (not literally a war, but big spats on many issues) between the pro-Idris Jusoh faction and pro-Ahmad Said faction. The former is the previous Terengganu MB, while the latter is the current Terengganu MB. But whether it'll be enough to swing the voters back to PAS remains to be seen. I think the impact would be minimal somehow. Pahang? With the Lynas issue pretty big and still ongoing, maybe the opposition can win a few more seats, but never enough to bring down the state government. N9? With Isa Samad back in the fold, we won't see PR coming so close quietly again like they did in the last GE (21-15 state seats in favour of BN). Malacca? It'll be interesting to see if Ali Rustam can be defeated by PAS candidate Bakrin Sidek in Bukit Baru, which may see BN defending Malacca, but a real possibility that its CM may be defeated. Johor? An UMNO fortress forever. If anyone of you remember the Tenang by-election, that is your indicator of how strong Johor is in the hands of UMNO. Sabah and Sarawak tak payah cakaplah.</div><div><br /></div><div>In summary, it'll be an unpredictable GE. More Malay votes going back to UMNO, but more Chinese votes are swinging away from MCA to the opposition. Indian votes? Err... We can't really read what is on their minds. But I'm assuming BN will get the lion's share, except for those educated ones. But the Malay votes are all that BN needs in order to retain control, and I foresee a 2/3 majority for them next GE.</div>Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3240787293046220950.post-61197827074936955992011-12-04T15:43:00.002+08:002011-12-04T15:53:19.119+08:00Graduate of Monash UniversityAlhamdulillah, my results are out, and I can finally graduate after 3 years of long, hard studies.<div><br /></div><div>AFW3021 - Performance Measurement & Control</div><div>Internal - 34.5/40</div><div>External - 49.5/60</div><div>Total - 84/100 (HD)</div><div><br /></div><div>AFW3041 - Auditing & Assurance</div><div>Internal - 20/30</div><div>External - 50/70</div><div>Total - 70/100 (D)</div><div><br /></div><div>AFW3050 - Financial Accounting Issues</div><div>Internal - 29/40</div><div>External 48/60</div><div>Total - 77/100 (D)</div><div><br /></div><div>ECW3143 - Economics of Money & Banking</div><div>Internal - 25.5/30</div><div>External - 57.5/70</div><div>Total - 83/100 (HD)</div>Ahmad Syafiqhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13815613872239982606noreply@blogger.com5