Sibu by-election

1st of all, congratulations to DAP candidate, Wong Ho Leng, for winning this crucial by-election in East Malaysia. This victory is not possible without the solid vote of the Chinese Foochows, who had made it clear that they want Taib Mahmud to go, as he had been around for far too long, ripping apart Sarawak's natural resources for his own family's gains.

But of course, it is good to note that there is no personal attacks involved in this campaign by either side, which is a good thing for Malaysian politics, unlike the Hulu Selangor by-election. However, we are treated to a customary $$$ offers by BN to voters to ensure that victory is in their hands. Alas, the voters didn't fall for the bait. So what does this tell BN on a whole? $$$ does not buy everything. I hope they learn from that.

Last of all, I hope that whatever promises made by either side (especially BN), will be fulfilled. We don't want to hear of any unfulfilled promises ringing to our ears.

On another note, the Melanau and Iban votes are still solidly behind BN, which is still a good indicator for the Sarawak state elections, expected to be called by next year. This loss may be just a blip, but I have to admit it was a shocker out of the wildest dreams. It was DAP's 1st by-election contest, and they won it against all odds, including the postal votes and the onslaught by Melanau and Iban voters. Not to forget the $$$ splashed.

Also, this win means that BN is still a bit far away from regaining its 2/3 majority in Parliament, although it is still possible if we hear of further defections from PR (especially from PKR) in the near future.

That's all I have to say. Congratulations to both sides for undertaking a good campaign in Sibu. To the winner, I say congratulations and continue to work hard to serve the people. To the loser, do not despair as there is still time to repair mistakes/damages.

Till then, CIAO. XD

My uni life and current marks

Uni life is tough. It's like jumping off from a cliff.

Company reporting:

Marks so far: 19.6/25% (Assignment 1 & Online test)

Assignment 2 is due next Monday. I'm glad I'm done with that before the due date.

AIS & Financial Modelling:

Marks so far: 9.5/13% (2 online tests)

I haven't got back my assignment yet. Damn, it's a long wait.

Cost info for decision making:

Marks so far: 13.9/15% (Assignment 1 & presentation)

My 2nd assignment is due this Friday, and I haven't started on it.

Macroecons policy:

Marks so far: None so far

My assignment is not returned yet, and my test is on this Wednesday (6.30-7.30pm). Gotta study for that.

15 year old kid who got shot by police officer

Another death at the hands of a few police officers. Poor kid. He was only 15, and his offences are quite minor according to the traffic laws. But does it warrant a killing that is unjustified? I mean, the procedure should have been to shoot the 4 tyres first, and after that the kid couldn't do anything after that. He had no choice but to stop. But instead, he got shot in the head.

But of course, we shouldn't generalise that all police officers are bad. Some did their duty well with dignity. We can't simply prosecute them with a machine gun. We have to be more careful in our aiming by using a sniper. Only target the police officers involved in the incident. Leave out the rest of them who had nothing to do with it. So, let's zoom in on those police officers with direct connections to the accident, especially the police officer who shot Aminulrasyid. May the truth prevail, one way or another. For 100% absolute truth, tunggulah sampai di depan mahkamah Allah kelak.

Al-Fatihah...

What happens when MCA leaves BN?

Perlis:

2 MCA seats within the 15-man state assembly would presumably shift the balance from 13-2 to 11-4 in favour of BN.

Kedah:

The Alor Setar parliamentary seat would make BN 1 seat weaker in Parliament.

Gurun and Bakar Arang state seat would fall back to PR, making them stronger in the state assembly from 20-16 to 22-14 once more, making up for the 2 defections.

Perak:

Tanjong Malim, Lumut, and Kampar parliamentary seat would be lost by BN. Make that 4 seats weaker in total.

Chenderiang and Jelapang state seat would fall to PR. From 31-28 in favour of BN, it will swing to become 30-29 in favour of PR. Perak retaken yeah!

Selangor:

Pandan parliamentary seat would be lost by BN. Getting weaker and weaker in Parliament.

Kuala Kubu Bahru and Sungai Pelek state seats taken, making PR more secured and entrenched in Selangor.

Negeri Sembilan:

Chennah state seat would fall to PR, making BN's position precarious. From 21-15 to 20-16 in favour of BN.

Melaka:

Alor Gajah parliamentary seat lost by BN.

Machap, Kelebang, Duyong, and Bemban state seats go to PR. Opposition in Melaka would be stronger now. From 23-5 in favour of BN to 19-9 in favour of BN.

Johor:

Labis, Ayer Hitam, Kluang, Tebrau, Gelang Patah, Kulai, and Tanjung Piai parliamentary seats would be lost by BN. Make that 13 parliamentary seats in PR hands. (BN 138 - 82 PR. After defections and by-election, make that BN 143 - 77 PR. However, if MCA leaves, then it would be BN 130 - 90 PR at this point)

Jementah, Bekok, Tangkak, Yong Peng, Parit Yaani, Penggaram, Paloh, Johor Jaya, Stulang, Pengkalan Rinting, Pulai Sebatang, and Pekan Nenas state seats would be lost by BN. From a very comfortable position in the DUN of 50-6, now BN is only leading by 38-18 in their favour, just barely holding their 2/3 majority in the State Assembly.

Pahang:

Raub and Bentong parliamentary seats lost. Make that 15 seats lost in total at parliament level. (BN 128 - 92 PR)

Tanah Rata, Cheka, Damak, Semambu, Teruntum, Mentakab, and Bilut state seats lost by BN. From a score of 38-4, their majority is reduced to 31-11 in the State Assembly, making the opposition more vociferous.

Terengganu:

Bandar state seat lost by BN. Not much difference as the score would be 23-9 rather than 24-8.

MCA never stepped foot in Penang and Kelantan. I'm lazy to cover Sabah and Sarawak, as they are mostly local BN components.


So, what happens when MCA leaves? Only 1 clear conlusion, which is PR will regain Perak if MCA indeed leaves BN, that is, if they ever do of course. ;P

Hulu Selangor by-election results

First of all, congratulations to BN for winning the Hulu Selangor by-election with a majority of 1,725 votes. You had the advantage from the start. However, we did gave you all a good fight, considering that Hulu Selangor is your own fortress. Thus, we will live to fight another day. Watch out for Sibu by-election on May 16. And one last thing, please ensure you fulfill all your by-election promises. If you don't, those voters who voted for you would easily abandon you. Thus, one lesson to be learned, never mess with the rakyat's power.

MIC - 24,997 votes
PKR - 23,272 votes
Majority - 1,725 votes

My prediction for Sibu:
BN to win by a majority of 2,000 votes.
Any takers?

Why BN will win Hulu Selangor tomorrow

1. Personal involvement of the PM, DPM and Tun Mahathir
2. Goodies being splashed out all over the place
3. It's a semi-rural area
4. Extensive personal attacks on Zaid Ibrahim
5. It's an UMNO fortress among the Malay voters there
6. 13,000 voters have been moved
7. Possible midnight raid to splash even more goodies tonight.

Enough said. I'll eat humble pie if BN loses tomorrow.

By-elections galore

Today, we received news of another death of a politician. This time it's in Sibu, Sarawak. Condolences to the late Sibu MP who died after a prolonged battle with cancer.

Not too long ago, we heard about the death of Hulu Selangor MP, causing another by-election this year. We already know when the by-election would be, which is April 25. This by-election would be a good indication of whether support is coming back to BN or support for change remains status quo.

If BN wins Hulu Selangor, that means people's support for BN is on the rise again, with a recovering economy and an unemployment rate of only 3.6%; which means good times of the economy is coming back. The rule of economics about a strong economy is that, the incumbent party would hold firm. And there's no prizes for guessing that one.

However, if BN failed to regain the Hulu Selangor seat that it lost 2 years ago, what are the implications? For me, I am lazy to think of the implications, but I know one of them is a signal to BN that retaking Selangor is never an easy task. Of course, there were rumours that the PR state government of Selangor was about to fall during the month of January 2010, with sabotage works under the alleged orders of former MB, Khir Toyo (UMNO), was already in place. There were backlogs all over the place. Thus, the stage was set.

However, it didn't really go according to plan as the death of Teoh Beng Hock at the MACC premise was hot news in Selangor, and all over Peninsula Malaysia. Almost everyone was talking about that. Thus, taking over 3 months ago wasn't a good idea at all. So they postpone it and said they will win back Selangor in the elections. We'll see about that. If majority of Selangorians are happy with PR's governance, they might give them another term in office, and vice versa.

For me, I plan to register as a voter as soon as I turn 21 this October. 1 vote can make a load of difference. Being a former BN supporter in secondary school, I was ignorant about some of the lies that the mainstream media spinned. Yup, I read newspapers, considering most of them the truth. I didn't check and balance. I don't know blogs, I don't know Malaysia-Today, I don't know Malaysiakini, I don't know Malaysian Insider, etc...

In pre-U, a friend of mine, son of ADUN Batu Buruk, was reading those blogs that I was never exposed to. So, I became curious, and I read it as well. I find that so many things that the mainstream media is hiding from us. They had almost nothing but praise for BN, which sounds one-sided in any case. But of course, the same thing happens when you read only opposition blogs without its balances. It's also one-sided. So, who do I turn to for balanced coverage of both BN and PR, and of course, not to forget, Independents? MALAYSIAKINI. Another friend of mine also gave me his username and password so that I can access Malaysiakini and read the whole news. Yes, weaknesses of BN and PR exposed well in this section. Some do their jobs well, some are sleeping on it. Malaysiakini is the best thing that can happen in politics, because they bring that check and balance to either federal or state governments alike. Letters posted on Malaysiakini were from both sides of the divide, and those fence sitters. It's enjoying to read those letters of both sides so that we can evaluate for ourselves.

Of course, there are 2 newspapers I know that are also quite balanced in their coverage of both BN and PR. "The Sun" and "Sinar Harian". I rarely read The Sun, but one of my pre-U friends worked there part-time before he went off to RMIT in Australia for studies. He said The Sun was quite balanced, and I can vindicate his statement when I read it for myself. Even sometimes I bought Sinar Harian. It's quite heartening to see people's problems being highlighted. So both sides of the political divide had their fair share of weaknesses. It's good that these daily life problems are reported so that people have a voice to those responsible, whether be it PR or BN. So, I can only wish that the rest of the mainstream media (Star, Utusan, NST, etc...) can be like Sinar Harian and The Sun. Fat chance I guess. ;P

Anyway, back to the by-elections. We all know Sibu was under Sarawak United People's Party, a component under Barisan Nasional. They won it with a majority of 3,000 last time around. Therefore, I can't see Pakatan Rakyat winning this seat, with Sabah and Sarawak are BN strongholds, except for Kota Kinabalu and Kuching. But, but... they do have a chance in the very least to slash the majority from last time, provided with the right tactics.

So, here's my 2 predictions for Hulu Selangor and Sibu:
Hulu Selangor - BN to win by a majority of 5,000 - 7,000 votes
Sibu - BN to win by a majority of 3,000 votes

Why I say Hulu Selangor is the case? This is because, it has long been a BN fortress. Back in 2004, they won this seat by a majority of 14,000+. For them to extraordinarily lose this seat is unbelievable. But since then, I can bet they have learned their lesson. Never ever take votes for granted. Serve the people, and you will be courageously rewarded with self-satisfaction.

So here's to April 25 and the other date I don't know for Sibu until EC decides. It's gonna be fireworks. Cheers.

P/S I still remember my vow that I will play ping pong left handed all day if PR wins in Hulu Selangor. Man... do I love to be a pessimist. ;P