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Thursday, 10 November 2011

My GE-13 predictions (Part 1)

I won't go into detail yet as I still have to study for my Auditing exam coming next Tuesday (15/11/2011). But I'm just going to give my rough prediction based on past statistics and towards which direction will it swing.

There are only 3 parliamentary seats in Perlis. I expect Padang Besar and Kangar to be retained by UMNO-led BN. However, Arau is a hot seat with the majority only being 300 votes in favour of UMNO. They will definitely face a run for their money from PAS heavyweight Dr Haron Din, a respectable figure in the religious field.

Optimistic prediction: BN 2-1 PR
Pessimistic prediction: BN 3-0 PR

There are 15 parliamentary seats in Kedah. Langkawi, Jerlun and Kubang Pasu are expected to be retained by BN. Alor Setar is definitely a hot seat (& importantly urban seat), whereby MCA is most likely to be defeated by PKR, as the majority is only 184 votes last time out. In PAS-held seats, they are expected to retain Pokok Sena, Pendang and Baling. Padang Terap, Jerai and Sik are potential seats that could swing either to BN or PAS, so PAS are at risk of losing in those 3 places. In the PKR-held seats however, the swings are so unpredictable that even a 10,000 majority seat does not seem to be safe enough. Not to mention that Zulkifli Nordin and Gobalakrishnan left PKR beforehand, so Kulim Bandar Baharu and Padang Serai are up for grabs. Kuala Kedah, Merbok and Sungai Petani are also swinging either way, but I see Johari Abdul having the best chance of retaining his seat in Sungai Petani, maybe albeit by a reduced majority due to a lot of protest votes coming from UMNO members.

Optimistic prediction: BN 3-12 PR
Pessimistic prediction: BN 11-4 PR

That's the end of Part 1. I'll continue as soon as I'm done with my Auditing paper. The wait for whether Najib will dissolve Parliament tomorrow is killing me.