Planned protest against demolishing TTDI market

As a TTDI resident, I feel obliged to join the protests at 10am tomorrow, as me and my mom always buy our groceries there. I want to add one more voice to the protests, making it more lively than it will be.

Nearing the end of 2011

Another year has come and go. It only feels like yesterday that I was still in my summer holidays before continuing my final year degree studies. Well, it wasn't exactly a holiday as I underwent imternship in KPMG for 2 months (including spending a month in Johor). Going to Kulim Berhad is still fresh in my mind, and they make headlines very recently with their intention to sell off their majority stake in QSR Brands, which in turn owns KFC. I wish I would still be an auditor now and earn myself another trip to Ulu Tiram and bombard the employees with a lot of questions with regards to the stake in QSR.

Oh well, what can we look forward in 2012? I'm already 22, going on to 23 next October. The most anticipated event would be the General Election. With the uncertain political on-goings in Malaysia, it's hard to determine where the votes would go this time around. I'm a first-time voter, like thousands of others who had registered post-GE 12. These 1st-time voters would be a make-or-break in forming the next government of Malaysia. But, this is only crucial if Sabah and Sarawak tilted more in favour of the opposition, which is highly unlikely in Sabah, due to the lack of leadership in PR, as well as the lack of recognition towards local-based parties in Sabah and Sarawak. I can only hope that the opposition would give way to the local-based parties to face UMNO heads on in Sabah, then only we would have a fighting chance to add to the 1 parliamentary seat of Kota Kinabalu. The main priority would be to avoid 3-cornered fights or more, but I don't see that issue being solved anytime soon. No compromise is the big problem. There's no problem of compromise in Peninsula Malaysia, but in East Malaysia, that seems to be persistent. I can only predict at best, PR would be adding 5-10 seats from East Malaysia in addition to the ones they currently hold (Kuching, Sibu, Kota Kinabalu), but that would be insufficient to win even a simple majority to form the new federal government.

BN also has nothing much to worry about (despite whatever they are saying in the media, be it mainstream or alternative), as their 3R strategy (race, religion, royalty) is working very well in order to swing the Malay votes back into their fold for the next GE, but they would still struggle in the urban areas. Lucky for them, there is more non-urban areas than urban areas. This sort of imbalance is a concern for Malaysia's regional development policies for the future, as they know rural areas rely mainly on the mainstream media, and that's where their main vote base is. They have a fighting chance in Penang to defeat the PR-led government where they swing most of the Malays to their side over the last 3 years with endless propaganda. Kelantan? Maybe they can eat into the current majority held by the PAS-led government, but that's about it. They are wary of Nik Aziz as a formidable political foe in Kelantan, and they're going to have a hard time uniting UMNO Kelantan, with all the in-fighting going on. Selangor? It seems they can defeat PR with the issue of trash not being collected. Sabotage is the only thing they need, and it's working well. Kedah? Very uncertain on where the votes would go. Perak? That would be a very interesting battlefield, their chance to justify the power grab that happened back in February 2009. But it may also be a chance for the silent voters to show their discontent at the power grab.

Well, that's the states being currently held by PR. What about those held by BN? Perlis is as safe as the Rock of Gibraltar. Terengganu is unpredictable whereby voters can extremely swing from one side to another (as it happened during the 1999 GE, they were solidly behind PAS, only for them to thrash PAS in 2004). There's also a huge civil war (not literally a war, but big spats on many issues) between the pro-Idris Jusoh faction and pro-Ahmad Said faction. The former is the previous Terengganu MB, while the latter is the current Terengganu MB. But whether it'll be enough to swing the voters back to PAS remains to be seen. I think the impact would be minimal somehow. Pahang? With the Lynas issue pretty big and still ongoing, maybe the opposition can win a few more seats, but never enough to bring down the state government. N9? With Isa Samad back in the fold, we won't see PR coming so close quietly again like they did in the last GE (21-15 state seats in favour of BN). Malacca? It'll be interesting to see if Ali Rustam can be defeated by PAS candidate Bakrin Sidek in Bukit Baru, which may see BN defending Malacca, but a real possibility that its CM may be defeated. Johor? An UMNO fortress forever. If anyone of you remember the Tenang by-election, that is your indicator of how strong Johor is in the hands of UMNO. Sabah and Sarawak tak payah cakaplah.

In summary, it'll be an unpredictable GE. More Malay votes going back to UMNO, but more Chinese votes are swinging away from MCA to the opposition. Indian votes? Err... We can't really read what is on their minds. But I'm assuming BN will get the lion's share, except for those educated ones. But the Malay votes are all that BN needs in order to retain control, and I foresee a 2/3 majority for them next GE.

Graduate of Monash University

Alhamdulillah, my results are out, and I can finally graduate after 3 years of long, hard studies.

AFW3021 - Performance Measurement & Control

Internal - 34.5/40

External - 49.5/60

Total - 84/100 (HD)

AFW3041 - Auditing & Assurance

Internal - 20/30

External - 50/70

Total - 70/100 (D)

AFW3050 - Financial Accounting Issues

Internal - 29/40

External 48/60

Total - 77/100 (D)

ECW3143 - Economics of Money & Banking

Internal - 25.5/30

External - 57.5/70

Total - 83/100 (HD)

My GE-13 predictions (Part 1)

I won't go into detail yet as I still have to study for my Auditing exam coming next Tuesday (15/11/2011). But I'm just going to give my rough prediction based on past statistics and towards which direction will it swing.

Perlis:

There are only 3 parliamentary seats in Perlis. I expect Padang Besar and Kangar to be retained by UMNO-led BN. However, Arau is a hot seat with the majority only being 300 votes in favour of UMNO. They will definitely face a run for their money from PAS heavyweight Dr Haron Din, a respectable figure in the religious field.

Optimistic prediction: BN 2-1 PR

Pessimistic prediction: BN 3-0 PR

Kedah:

There are 15 parliamentary seats in Kedah. Langkawi, Jerlun and Kubang Pasu are expected to be retained by BN. Alor Setar is definitely a hot seat (& importantly urban seat), whereby MCA is most likely to be defeated by PKR, as the majority is only 184 votes last time out. In PAS-held seats, they are expected to retain Pokok Sena, Pendang and Baling. Padang Terap, Jerai and Sik are potential seats that could swing either to BN or PAS, so PAS are at risk of losing in those 3 places. In the PKR-held seats however, the swings are so unpredictable that even a 10,000 majority seat does not seem to be safe enough. Not to mention that Zulkifli Nordin and Gobalakrishnan left PKR beforehand, so Kulim Bandar Baharu and Padang Serai are up for grabs. Kuala Kedah, Merbok and Sungai Petani are also swinging either way, but I see Johari Abdul having the best chance of retaining his seat in Sungai Petani, maybe albeit by a reduced majority due to a lot of protest votes coming from UMNO members.

Optimistic prediction: BN 3-12 PR

Pessimistic prediction: BN 11-4 PR

That's the end of Part 1. I'll continue as soon as I'm done with my Auditing paper. The wait for whether Najib will dissolve Parliament tomorrow is killing me.

Latest update

I got 2 exams left for this semester.

Once I'm free of exams, I'm planning to do an analysis of parliamentary seats and identify hot seats and safe seats for both sides, along with giving my probable prediction for each seat for the next GE.

Internal marks for 2011 (Sem 2)

AFW3021 - 34.5/40 (HD)

AFW3041 - 20/30 (C)

AFW3050 - 29/40 (D)

ECW3143 - 25.5/30 (HD)

My internal marks are already known with certainty now, with my 1st paper coming up this Wednesday, which is AFW3021 (Performance Measurement & Control), followed by ECW3143 (Economics of Money & Banking) on Friday, followed by AFW3050 (Financial Accounting Issues) next Tuesday, and finally AFW3041 (Auditing & Assurance) on the 15th, also on a Tuesday.

And so, if you noticed the sequence, they arranged my exam papers according to how strong my internal marks is by chance. I just hope the AFW3021 paper won't be as screwed up as last year (I saw the past year, it was hell). I need to practice a lot for AFW3050, or I'll forget what entries to put in. It's a good thing I got 1 whole week to study Auditing, so that ain't so bad. For ECW3143, I finished most of my notes, as it's just a matter of remembering it.

P195 - Bandar Kuching

N9 - Padungan

Wong King Wei (DAP) = 11,957 votes (+11,957)

Sim Kiang Chiok (SUPP-BN) = 4,073 votes (-2,512)

Dominique Ng Kim Ho (Bebas) = 439 votes (-7,563)

Majority = 7,884 votes [2006 = 1,417 votes]

No. of voters = 23,499

Voters turnout (without spoilt votes) = 70.08%

Chinese 91%; Melanau 5%; Iban 1.6%; Bidayuh 1.1%; Others 1%; Orang Ulu 0.1%

This seat was previously held by the now independent Ng Kim Ho, who had quit PKR due to the dispute for this seat with the DAP. When DAP had agreed with PKR to fight in this seat, he left. Regardless, it shows that voters vote based on party, and almost no emphasis on candidate, as he had found out to his cost. Due to the wave of anti-Taib, the urbanites rose to the call and gave DAP a thumping majority over the waning SUPP. However, one must note that this is a Chinese majority seat, and it is no surprise that the sentiments of the East Malaysian Chinese are similar to those of the counterparts of West Malaysia.

N10 - Pending

Violet Yong Wui Wui (DAP) = 14,375 votes (+3,223)

Sim Kui Hian (SUPP-BN) = 6,780 votes (-480)

Majority = 7,595 votes [2006 = 4,372 votes]

No. of voters = 29,375

Voters turnout [without spoilt votes] = 72.02%

Chinese 90%; Melanau 5%; Iban 3%; Bidayuh 1.4%; Others 0.5%; Orang Ulu 0.1%

This seat is still a stronghold of DAP, a fortress that became even more formidable as the recent state elections suggest. It also suggests that the urban areas are mostly anti-establishment, making it very difficult for BN to regain their footing due to the age of the Internet. But like the Padungan seat, this is another Chinese majority seat, and it's no surprise to see DAP having a strong foothold on it. They are recruiting as many non-Chinese members as they can, but I don't believe that they still have the confidence to fight in seats that are not Chinese majority. But one thing is for sure, parties like MCA and SUPP are depending upon UMNO and PBB for their survival in this difficult political climate.

To sum it all up, all I can say to BN is that they can forget Kuching. It's so urban that for them to win, they have to ask the pigs to literally fly. That is how impossible it is.

Total: Non-BN 26,332 - 10,853 BN

Prediction for next GE: DAP to retain Bandar Kuching hands down...