Nuffnang Ads

Tuesday, 31 December 2013

How would the table look by May 2014?

January 2014 (actual scores in bracket)
Swansea City 1-3 Manchester City (1-3)
Arsenal 4-0 Cardiff City (2-0)
Crystal Palace 1-0 Norwich City (1-1)
Fulham 2-2 West Ham United (2-1)
Liverpool 3-1 Hull City Tigers (2-0)
Southampton 1-1 Chelsea (0-3)
Stoke City 1-2 Everton (1-1)
Sunderland 2-1 Aston Villa (0-1)
West Bromwich Albion 1-3 Newcastle United (1-0)
Manchester United 2-2 Tottenham Hotspur (1-2)

Hull City Tigers 2-2 Chelsea (0-2)
Cardiff City 2-1 West Ham United (0-2)
Everton 3-0 Norwich City (2-0)
Fulham 1-1 Sunderland (1-4)
Southampton 3-1 West Bromwich Albion (1-0)
Tottenham Hotspur 4-1 Crystal Palace (2-0)
Manchester United 2-1 Swansea City (2-0)
Newcastle United 1-1 Manchester City (0-2)
Stoke City 1-3 Liverpool (3-5)
Aston Villa 1-2 Arsenal (1-2)

Sunderland 2-1 Southampton (2-2)
Arsenal 3-1 Fulham (2-0)
Crystal Palace 2-1 Stoke City (1-0)
Manchester City 6-0 Cardiff City (4-2)
Norwich City 1-2 Hull City Tigers (1-0)
West Ham United 1-2 Newcastle United (1-3)
Liverpool 3-1 Aston Villa (2-2)
Swansea City 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur (1-3)
Chelsea 3-1 Manchester United (3-1)
West Bromwich Albion 0-2 Everton (1-1)

Manchester United 3-0 Cardiff City (2-0)
Norwich City 2-2 Newcastle United (0-0)
Southampton 1-1 Arsenal (2-2)
Sunderland 2-1 Stoke City (1-0)
Swansea City 2-2 Fulham (2-0)
Crystal Palace 1-1 Hull City Tigers (1-0)
Liverpool 2-2 Everton (4-0)
Aston Villa 2-1 West Bromwich Albion (4-3)
Chelsea 3-0 West Ham United (0-0)
Tottenham Hotspur 2-2 Manchester City (1-5)

Actual league table @ 30.01.2014 (points prediction in bracket)
1. Manchester City 53 pts (49)
2. Arsenal 52 pts (52)
3. Chelsea 50 pts (48)
4. Liverpool 46 pts (46)
5. Tottenham Hotspur 43 pts (40)
6. Everton 42 pts (47)
7. Manchester United 40 pts (41)
8. Newcastle United 37 pts (41)
9. Southampton 32 pts (32)
10. Aston Villa 27 pts (23)
11. Swansea City 24 pts (23)
12. Norwich City 24 pts (20)
13. Hull City Tigers 23 pts (28)
14. Crystal Palace 23 pts (23)
15. West Bromwich Albion 22 pts (18)
16. Stoke City 22 pts (21)
17. Sunderland 21 pts (24)
18. West Ham United 19 pts (16)
19. Fulham 19 pts (19)
20. Cardiff City 18 pts (21)

Over-achieved (9):
Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, Swansea City, Norwich City, West Bromwich Albion, Stoke City, West Ham United

On par (5):
Arsenal, Liverpool, Southampton, Crystal Palace, Fulham

Under-achieved (6):
Everton, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Hull City Tigers, Sunderland, Cardiff City

Considering that I thought Everton is a top-4 side, actual results seemed to have gone against them, hence making Liverpool the favourite to clinch the final spot in the UCL. Manchester City is looking like title favourites in the form they've shown, hence Wenger may come up short again, but surely not without a fight considering that Draxler may be going to Arsenal.

February 2014
West Ham United 2-1 Swansea City (2-0)
Cardiff City 1-1 Norwich City (2-1)
Everton 3-2 Aston Villa (2-1)
Fulham 1-2 Southampton (0-3)
Hull City Tigers 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur (1-1)
Newcastle United 2-2 Sunderland (0-3)
Stoke City 1-2 Manchester United (2-1)
West Bromwich Albion 0-3 Liverpool (1-1)
Arsenal 3-0 Crystal Palace (2-0)
Manchester City 3-1 Chelsea (0-1)

Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal (5-1)
Aston Villa 1-1 West Ham United (0-2)
Chelsea 2-1 Newcastle United (3-0)
Crystal Palace 1-2 West Bromwich Albion (3-1)
Norwich City 0-4 Manchester City (0-0)
Southampton 2-1 Stoke City (2-2)
Sunderland 1-1 Hull City Tigers (0-2)
Swansea City 2-1 Cardiff City (3-0)
Tottenham Hotspur 2-2 Everton (1-0)
Manchester United 3-1 Fulham (2-2)

Cardiff City 2-1 Aston Villa (0-0)
Hull City Tigers 1-1 Southampton (0-1)
West Ham United 2-1 Norwich City (2-0)
West Bromwich Albion 1-3 Chelsea (1-1)
Arsenal 3-1 Manchester United (0-0)
Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace (postponed)
Manchester City 3-0 Sunderland (postponed)
Newcastle United 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur (0-4)
Stoke City 1-2 Swansea City (1-1)
Fulham 0-4 Liverpool (2-3)

Chelsea 2-2 Everton (1-0)
Arsenal 3-0 Sunderland (4-1)
Cardiff City 2-1 Hull City Tigers (0-4)
Manchester City 4-0 Stoke City (1-0)
West Bromwich Albion 2-2 Fulham (1-1)
West Ham United 1-2 Southampton (3-1)
Crystal Palace 1-2 Manchester United (0-2)
Liverpool 3-1 Swansea City (4-3)
Newcastle United 2-1 Aston Villa (1-0)
Norwich City 1-3 Tottenham Hotspur (1-0)

March 2014
Aston Villa 2-1 Norwich City (4-1)
Everton 3-1 West Ham United (1-0)
Fulham 2-3 Chelsea (1-3)
Hull City Tigers 1-1 Newcastle United (1-4)
Manchester United 1-3 Manchester City (postponed)
Southampton 2-1 Liverpool (0-3)
Stoke City 0-3 Arsenal (1-0)
Sunderland 1-2 West Bromwich Albion (postponed)
Swansea City 3-1 Crystal Palace (1-1)
Tottenham Hotspur 4-0 Cardiff City (1-0)

Arsenal 3-1 Swansea City (postponed)
Cardiff City 1-2 Fulham (3-1)
Chelsea 3-1 Tottenham Hotspur (4-0)
Crystal Palace 1-1 Southampton (0-1)
Liverpool 3-1 Sunderland (postponed)
Manchester City 5-0 Aston Villa (postponed)
Newcastle United 1-1 Everton (postponed)
Norwich City 1-0 Stoke City (1-1)
West Bromwich Albion 1-3 Manchester United (0-3)
West Ham United 2-1 Hull City Tigers (postponed)

Actual league table @ 15.03.2014 (points prediction in bracket)
1. Chelsea 66 pts (61)
2. Liverpool 59 pts (59)
3. Arsenal 59 pts (68)
4. Manchester City 57 pts (67)
5. Tottenham Hotspur 53 pts (48)
6. Manchester United 48 pts (53)
7. Everton 48 pts (59)
8. Newcastle United 43 pts (50)
9. Southampton 42 pts (46)
10. West Ham United 31 pts (26)
11. Aston Villa 31 pts (27)
12. Stoke City 31 pts (21)
13. Hull City Tigers 30 pts (32)
14. Swansea City 29 pts (32)
15. Norwich City 29 pts (24)
16. Crystal Palace 27 pts (24)
17. West Bromwich Albion 25 pts (25)
18. Cardiff City 25 pts (28)
19. Sunderland 24 pts (26)
20. Fulham 21 pts (23)

It's hard to get a clear picture due to the international break and the League Cup final, causing in the postponements in some of the games till much later dates. Anyhow, I don't know why I'm predicting a Manchester United win when Liverpool are looking like title contenders with SAS in their ranks. Anyhow, I ain't gonna change my prediction, but reality may bite.

Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea (1-0)
Everton 3-0 Cardiff City (2-1)
Fulham 2-1 Newcastle United (1-0)
Hull City Tigers 1-1 Manchester City (0-2)
Manchester United 2-1 Liverpool (0-3)
Southampton 3-0 Norwich City (4-2)
Stoke City 2-1 West Ham United (3-1)
Sunderland 1-1 Crystal Palace (0-0)
Swansea City 2-2 West Bromwich Albion (1-2)
Tottenham Hotspur 2-4 Arsenal (0-1)

Aston Villa 1-2 Stoke City
Cardiff City 0-5 Liverpool (3-6)
Chelsea 2-1 Arsenal (6-0)
Everton 2-1 Swansea City (3-2)
Hull City Tigers 3-1 West Bromwich Albion (2-0)
Manchester City 6-0 Fulham (5-0)
Newcastle United 3-0 Crystal Palace (1-0)
Norwich City 1-0 Sunderland (2-0)
Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 Southampton (3-2)
West Ham United 1-3 Manchester United (0-2)

Arsenal 2-3 Manchester City
Crystal Palace 0-2 Chelsea
Fulham 0-2 Everton
Liverpool 2-2 Tottenham Hotspur
Manchester United 3-0 Aston Villa
Southampton 3-1 Newcastle United
Stoke City 2-1 Hull City Tigers
Sunderland 1-2 West Ham United
Swansea City 2-1 Norwich City
West Bromwich Albion 2-1 Cardiff City

April 2014
Aston Villa 2-2 Fulham
Cardiff City 1-0 Crystal Palace
Chelsea 3-1 Stoke City
Everton 1-2 Arsenal
Hull City Tigers 2-2 Swansea City
Manchester City 2-1 Southampton
Newcastle United 2-0 Manchester United
Norwich City 1-1 West Bromwich Albion
Tottenham Hotspur 3-0 Sunderland
West Ham United 1-4 Liverpool

Arsenal 4-0 West Ham United
Crystal Palace 1-2 Aston Villa
Fulham 2-1 Norwich City
Liverpool 2-2 Manchester City
Manchester United 2-1 Hull City Tigers
Southampton 3-0 Cardiff City
Stoke City 1-1 Newcastle United
Sunderland 1-2 Everton
Swansea City 1-2 Chelsea
West Bromwich Albion 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur

Aston Villa 1-1 Southampton
Cardiff City 2-2 Stoke City
Chelsea 2-0 Sunderland
Everton 2-1 Manchester United
Hull City Tigers 1-3 Arsenal
Manchester City 4-0 West Bromwich Albion
Newcastle United 3-1 Swansea City
Norwich City 0-6 Liverpool
Tottenham Hotspur 3-0 Fulham
West Ham United 1-1 Crystal Palace

Arsenal 2-1 Newcastle United
Crystal Palace 0-3 Manchester City
Fulham 2-1 Hull City Tigers
Liverpool 2-1 Chelsea
Manchester United 4-0 Norwich City
Southampton 2-2 Everton
Stoke City 1-3 Tottenham Hotspur
Sunderland 2-1 Cardiff City
Swansea City 2-1 Aston Villa
West Bromwich Albion 3-1 West Ham United

May 2014
Arsenal 4-1 West Bromwich Albion
Aston Villa 2-1 Hull City Tigers
Chelsea 5-0 Norwich City
Crystal Palace 1-3 Liverpool
Everton 2-1 Manchester City
Manchester United 3-0 Sunderland
Newcastle United 3-0 Cardiff City
Stoke City 2-0 Fulham
Swansea City 1-2 Southampton
West Ham United 0-2 Tottenham Hotspur

Cardiff City 0-2 Chelsea
Fulham 1-2 Crystal Palace
Hull City Tigers 1-2 Everton
Liverpool 2-2 Newcastle United
Manchester City 6-0 West Ham United
Norwich City 0-3 Arsenal
Southampton 1-1 Manchester United
Sunderland 2-0 Swansea City
Tottenham Hotspur 2-1 Aston Villa
West Bromwich Albion 2-2 Stoke City

League calculations
Arsenal 42+10+10+9+12+6 = 89
Manchester City 41+8+12+13+10+3 = 87
Chelsea 40+8+7+15+9+6 = 85
Everton 37+10+8+13+7+6 = 81
Liverpool 36+10+10+7+10+4 = 77
Manchester United 34+7+9+12+6+4 = 72
Tottenham Hotspur 34+6+5+7+9+6 = 67
Newcastle United 33+8+7+5+7+4 = 64
Southampton 27+5+10+10+5+4 = 61
Hull City Tigers 23+5+3+5+1+0 = 37
Swansea City 21+2+6+7+4+0 = 40
Stoke City 21+0+0+9+2+4 = 36
Aston Villa 20+3+1+3+5+3 = 35
Norwich City 19+1+1+6+1+0 = 28
West Bromwich Albion 18+0+4+7+7+1 = 37
Cardiff City 18+3+7+0+4+0 = 32
Crystal Palace 16+7+0+2+1+3 = 29
Fulham 16+3+1+6+7+0 = 33
West Ham United 15+1+7+6+1+0 = 30
Sunderland 14+10+2+1+3+3 = 33

Predicted league table
1. Arsenal 89 pts (Champions, UCL)
2. Manchester City 87 pts (UCL)
3. Chelsea 85 pts (UCL)
4. Everton 81 pts (UCL qualifications)
5. Liverpool 77 pts (UEL)
6. Manchester United 72 pts (UEL)
7. Tottenham Hotspur 67pts
8. Newcastle United 64 pts
9. Southampton 61 pts
10. Swansea City 40 pts
11. Hull City Tigers 37 pts
12. West Bromwich Albion 37 pts
13. Stoke City 36 pts
14. Aston Villa 35 pts
15. Sunderland 33 pts
16. Fulham 33 pts
17. Cardiff City 32 pts
18. West Ham United 30 pts (relegated)
19. Crystal Palace 29 pts (relegated)
20. Norwich City 28 pts (relegated)

Wow, what a month for May 2014... Imagine Manchester City failing to deliver against Everton when it matters most, allowing the Gunners to sneak back to the top of the table, where they currently belong before the predictions. And it is expected that Manchester United would miss out on the Champions League for the 1st time since its inception, and finishing above them is Liverpool, after quite a while of being below Manchester United since the Premier League's beginnings. Of course, I would think Everton would be able to put on the consistency and ruthless streak against the mid-table teams and of course, acting as a banana skin to the big teams. They may just make it to the Champions League ahead of their Merseyside rivals. Being a Manchester United fan is a difficult reality considering the shake-up after Ferguson's retirement at the end of last season. I may have to somehow live with the jokes of "Turn to Channel 5 on Thursday nights". =3

Thursday, 26 December 2013

How the EPL takes shape before New Year's Day

West Ham United 2-1 West Bromwich Albion
Aston Villa 2-1 Swansea City
Hull City 2-1 Fulham
Manchester City 5-0 Crystal Palace
Norwich City 1-3 Manchester United
Cardiff City 0-2 Sunderland
Everton 2-1 Southampton
Newcastle United 2-2 Arsenal
Chelsea 2-1 Liverpool
Tottenham Hotspur 4-1 Stoke City

EPL Table @ 31.12.2013:
1. Manchester City 41 pts (+37)
2. Arsenal 40 pts (+18)
3. Chelsea 40 pts (+16)
4. Everton 37 pts (+13)
5. Liverpool 36 pts (+21)
6. Manchester United 34 pts (+11)
7. Newcastle United 34 pts (+6)
8. Tottenham Hotspur 34 pts (-2)
9. Southampton 27 pts (+6)
10. Hull City 23 pts (-6)
11. Aston Villa 22 pts (-6)
12. Stoke City 21 pts (-11)
13. Swansea City 20 pts (-2)
14. Norwich City 19 pts (-17)
15. West Bromwich Albion 17 pts (-6)
16. West Ham United 17 pts (-9)
17. Cardiff City 17 pts (-17)
18. Sunderland 16pts (-15)
19. Fulham 16 pts (-17)
20. Crystal Palace 16 pts (-20)

There seems to be a clear pattern on how the League is taking shape. It's no real surprise to see City, Arsenal and Chelsea in the mix. However, I would definitely not be betting against Liverpool not being title contenders, as they would have completed 2 tough matches by Sunday (lost against Manchester City and are expected to lose against Chelsea, who's fortress under Mourinho has thus far remained intact). After that, they will have an easy run of fixtures that would be in their favour. At one point I considered Everton a title contender until they lost their unbeaten home record against bottom team Sunderland, who looked resurgent and defiant in defending against all odds. Sunderland is expected to put in the same kind of effort against troubled Cardiff City, which would potentially lift them off the foot of the table.

I had my doubts for Manchester United went they went up against Hull due to their tigerish defensive record at home. It was a lucky 3 points considering it could have gone either way. I'm expecting another fight by Norwich, who beat us 1-0 last season, and I won't be surprised if they raise their game against the dethroned champions at home, despite a tiring run of fixtures. Of course, United will chop and change, but will it be good enough against Norwich? I would still think Norwich will edge this one, but I would love to be proven wrong.

Saturday, 21 December 2013

This weekend's EPL matches

Liverpool 4-0 Cardiff City
Crystal Palace 1-1 Newcastle United
Fulham 1-3 Manchester City
Manchester United 2-1 West Ham United
Stoke City 2-2 Aston Villa
Sunderland 2-1 Norwich City
West Bromwich Albion 0-2 Hull City
Southampton 2-1 Tottenham Hotspurs
Swansea 1-2 Everton
Arsenal 2-2 Chelsea

How would the table look like after the results above?
1. Liverpool 36 pts (+25)
2. Arsenal 36 pts (+16)
3. Manchester City 35 pts (+31)
4. Chelsea 34 pts (+14)
5. Everton 34 pts (+13)
6. Manchester United 28 pts (+7)
7. Newcastle United 28 pts (-1)
8. Southampton 27 pts (+6)
9. Tottenham Hotspurs 27 pts (-7)
10. Hull City 22 pts (-4)
11. Swansea City 20 pts (0)
12. Aston Villa 20 pts (-5)
13. Stoke City 19 pts (-5)
14. Norwich City 18 pts (-15)
15. Cardiff City 17 pts (-14)
16. West Bromwich Albion 15 pts (-7)
17. West Ham United 14 pts (-7)
18. Crystal Palace 14 pts (-13)
19. Fulham 13 pts (-17)
20. Sunderland 12 pts (-17)

It's going to be a pretty interesting table based on the results above. This will see Liverpool going top of the league once more since September with a resurgent Luis Suarez wreaking havoc, who had just signed a new contract with them.

Wenger thus far has not been able to defeat a Mourinho side ever since Mourinho joined Chelsea back in 2005. Expect this record to continue, even with an Arsenal side boosting the likes of Ozil and free-scoring Ramsey. Their defence was absolutely shattered in the 6-3 defeat against title contenders Manchester City, who seemed to have finally found form in their away matches, overcoming their road trip blues. For Wenger, limiting the goals conceded would be the priority here.

On the other hand, Everton is going great guns in the EPL this season, thanks in part to the contributions made by Barcelona loanee, Gerard Deulofeu and Chelsea loanee, Romelu Lukaku. Of course, with Deulofeu injured for a month, Martinez may have to rely on the creativity of both Mirallas and Pienaar to break down the Swansea defence, which doesn't look as solid with Vorm injured for 5 weeks. This is a chance for Everton to stay close to the title contenders.

Manchester United seemed to have turned a corner in recent matches with wins in the UCL, league and COC. However, as a Manchester United fan, I have huge concerns about their home form. It seems that the Theatre of Dreams have become a Theatre of Nightmares this season for them. I won't be surprised to see Manchester United struggle against a side threatened by relegation, as well as the familiar face of Ravel Morrison, who seemed to be flourishing under the tutelage of Sam Allardyce, and was instrumental in the destruction of Tottenham in the league when the two sides met. He may look to do the same to his former side.

Southampton has finally halted their losing streak in the league by surprisingly holding Manchester City to a draw some time ago. They would look to take advantage of Spurs' managerial chaos after the sacking of AVB (Another Vacancy Beckons). Pochettino is known for playing a high pressing game, and Spurs should be wary of this threat, particularly the physicality of Adam Lambert and Jay Rodriguez up front. Their defence may struggle, with even Lloris not being able to do much to inspire confidence to his defence.

It's going to be another interesting weekend of football. Cheerio!

Saturday, 7 December 2013

2014 World Cup predictions

Group A
Winner: Brazil
Runner-up: Croatia

Group B
Winner: Spain
Runner-up: Chile

Group C:
Winner: Colombia
Runner-up: Japan

Group D:
Winner: Italy
Runner-up: Uruguay

Group E:
Winner: France
Runner-up: Switzerland

Group F:
Winner: Argentina
Runner-up: Bosnia & Herzegovina

Group G:
Winner: Germany
Runner-up: Portugal

Group H:
Winner: Belgium
Runner-up: Russia

What happens in the last 16?
Brazil vs Chile (A1 vs B2)
Colombia vs Uruguay (C1 vs D2)
France vs Bosnia (E1 vs F2)
Germany vs Russia (G1 vs H2)
Spain vs Croatia (B1 vs A2)
Italy vs Japan (D1 vs C2)
Argentina vs Switzerland (F1 vs E2)
Belgium vs Portugal (H1 vs G2)

What happens in the quarter-finals?
A1/B2 vs C1/D2
E1/F2 vs G1/H2
B1/A2 vs D1/C2
F1/E2 vs H1/G2

What happens in the semi-finals?
A1/B2/C1/D2 vs E1/F2/G1/H2
B1/A2/D1/C2 vs F1/E2/H1/G2

I don't even need to say what happens in the final, because it is common sense.

But, let's apply the scenario.

Brazil vs Uruguay (World Cup history, in particular the 1950 World Cup final)
France vs Germany (historically always at loggerheads, but Germany definitely has the better squad)
Spain vs Italy (Tiki-taka vs "Why Always Me")
Argentina vs Portugal (Wow, Messi vs Ronaldo, time to settle it once and for all)

Mouth-watering prospects indeed.

Brazil vs Germany (a repeat of the 2002 World Cup final)
Spain vs Argentina (Barca vs Messi & Co.)

Again... Giant fixtures, you can't really go either way.

Brazil vs Spain

Brazil trying to win it in front of their home fans, but most probably they'll suffer the heartbreak of 1950. Spain just reigns supreme. The core of their squad is mainly from La Liga (in particular Barca and Real Madrid).

Monday, 11 November 2013

Predictions for EPL after this international break

Everton - Liverpool (2-1)
Arsenal - Southampton (1-1)
Fulham - Swansea City (1-3)
Hull City Tigers - Crystal Palace (2-0)
Newcastle United - Norwich City (3-0)
Stoke - Sunderland (2-2)
West Ham United - Chelsea (1-3)
Manchester City - Tottenham Hotspurs (3-1)
Cardiff City - Manchester United (1-2)
West Bromwich Albion - Aston Villa (2-2)

What implications will these results have?
1) Arsenal 26 pts (+12)
2) Chelsea 24 pts (+10)
3) Liverpool 23 pts (+10)
4) Southampton 23 pts (+10)
5) Manchester United 23 pts (+6)
6) Everton 23 pts (+5)
7) Manchester City 22 pts (+18)
8) Newcastle United 20 pts (+2)
9) Tottenham Hotspurs 20 pts (+1)

Imagine the Top 9 separated by just 6 points. Or even for the most optimistic of people, say if Southampton somehow wins at Arsenal, they will be tied at the top! Just behind on goal difference, and the gap will be 5 points between the Top 9. A very intriguing season lies in store.

Saturday, 2 November 2013

Sungai Limau by-election

With 2 days of campaigning to go before the actual voting process on this Monday (4/11/2013), I'm observing a very tight race, with BN sure to significantly slash the majority held by PAS in GE13. They are in a position to win this seat for the 1st time since 1990. Let's consider the demographics below:

Malays - 25,323 voters
Chinese - 1,842 voters
Indian - 15 voters
Total - 27,180 voters

I would think that the prediction would be as follows:
Malays - 85% turnout (21,525 voters)
UMNO 10,945 - 10,580 PAS

Chinese - 75% turnout (1,382 voters)
UMNO 576 - 806 PAS

Indians - 100% turnout (15 voters)
UMNO 10 - 5 PAS

UMNO 11,531 - 11,391 PAS (Majority: 140 votes)

Total voter turnout: 22,922 voters (84.33%)

We have to remember that this is a by-election, whereby BN is always able to focus a lot of their machinery and money there. Whether or not the promises would be fulfilled is another matter altogether. The long-term implications to PAS would be severe, even if they suffer only a reduction in majority, what more a loss in what is considered their stronghold. This would mean the strengthening of Mukhriz's position in Kedah, which would make it impossible for PR to wrestle Kedah once more in GE14. Also, another seat for BN would mean strengthening its position to 22-14 in the State Assembly, making it just 2 seats away from gaining a 2/3 majority, which is more than likely to happen in GE14 with Mahathir's son at the helm.

Saturday, 11 May 2013

Final comment on Johor GE results

Well, I wasn't far off in terms of my predictions for both parliament and state seats in the most southern state of Malaysia.

At parliament level, I predicted that PR would win 7 seats at best, which would have included Segamat (where Chua Jui Meng was contesting) and Labis (where Chua Tee Yong was contesting). I was wrong on these 2 places when the voters gave BN narrow victories in both the seats. Also, I got it wrong in both the Muar and Batu Pahat seats, for which I predicted a PKR and UMNO victory respectively. It went the other way around. I realistically thought Muar is more vulnerable compared to Batu Pahat due to the closer majority for Muar as compared to Batu Pahat. Then again, how wrong can I be? Puad Zarkashi lost unexpectedly in Batu Pahat, which automatically means that 2 Deputy Ministers of Higher Education was defeated in the same GE, a first I would say.

Hence, this explains the 5 parliament seats PR won in Johor. I did told my friend before that PR is going to win 5 seats at most, but this was before I did the analysis. I tried to detect possible mood swings by going as micro as possible. It nearly pulled off I can tell you that.

At state level, I predicted that PR would win 19 seats at best, which would have meant denying BN their 2/3 majority in Johor for the first time in history. Can you imagine having come this far in UMNO's fortress? In the end, PR won 18 seats, which just fell 1 seat short of denying BN their 2/3 majority in the State Assembly. There are a few seats that I got it wrong, but I would like to single one out in particular: PALOH. I had predicted a narrow victory for DAP in this seat, for which they fielded an Indian candidate. This is a very mixed seat, but with the Chinese making up the majority at 44%, followed by Malays at 37% and Indians at 17%. You have to feel realistic that DAP is just going to nick this one, but in the end, the frustration was there for all to see. Imagine... losing by just 103 votes! The number of spoilt votes? 403 votes. Imagine where those spoilt votes could have gone to. This I have to remind you again ladies and gentlemen, there is a fine line between winning and losing, and this was one of them.

I guess that is all for now. I will make a full analysis for all the seats when I have the time to do so. Who knows, it might turn into a book for people to read, and they will know more about the guy who wrote 2 articles for Kee Thuan Chye's book "March 8: Time for Real Change".

Saturday, 4 May 2013

Why Johor? (Part 8) - updated with actual

P162 - Gelang Patah

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 8,851 votes

State seats (2008):
N48 - Skudai
DAP won by a majority of 12,854 votes

Chinese 65%; Malay 22%; Indian 12%
Voters (2013): 56,633
Voters (2008): 44,459

N49 - Nusa Jaya
UMNO won by a majority of 7,384 votes.

Malay 47%; Chinese 38%; Indian 13%
Voters (2013): 50,231
Voters (2008): 34,217

Oh my God... 14,251 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). What the hell is this... This is just too amazing by any standard possible. Can you think of another place whereby you would see this much split-voting??? PR clearly has more votes than BN at state level, but how they did not convert this at parliament level is a very, very big question.

My prediction:
Skudai would be comfortably retained by DAP with an increased majority [16,000 votes]
Nusa Jaya would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? Lim Kit Siang up against Ghani Abdul Othman... What a battlefield I can tell you that... This is where generals face each other heads-on. Despite Ghani's reputation and track record of being a 4-term MB of Johor, he is facing an uphill battle against DAP's lion. The high level of split voting may give him some hope to defend Gelang Patah, but mind you, this is a Chinese-majority seat that we're talking about. I think Kit Siang has this one in the bag, but it won't be by much due to the high level of split-voting [2,000 votes].

Actual results:
(P162) Gelang Patah - DAP won by a majority of 14,762 votes
Skudai - DAP won by a majority of 18,050 votes
Nusa Jaya - UMNO won by a majority of 2,201 votes

P163 - Kulai

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 11,744 votes

State seats (2008):
N50 - Bukit Permai
UMNO won by a majority of 5,192 votes

Malay 52%; Chinese 34%; Indian 12%
Voters (2013): 21,663
Voters (2008): 14,863

N51 - Bukit Batu
GERAKAN won by a majority of 2,341 votes.

Chinese 62%; Malay 30%; Indian 7%
Voters (2013): 22,304
Voters (2008): 19,556

N52 - Senai
DAP won by a majority of 4,030 votes.

Chinese 65%; Malay 23%; Indian 11%
Voters (2013): 40,182
Voters (2008): 32,939

A whopping 8,221 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). Again... Are you kidding me??? Why do you guys have to follow Gelang Patah?? Oh my God... This is beyond my comprehension...

My prediction:
Bukit Permai would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,700 votes]
Bukit Batu would fall to PKR this time around with a comfortable majority [3,500 votes]
Senai would be comfortably retained by DAP with an increased majority [8,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I can see Teo Nie Ching (former Serdang MP) helping DAP to contribute to another seat in Johor as part of PR's push to become the new federal government. The level of split-voting still amazes me, but I expect it will dwindle down by a lot due to the cohesion of PR in this case. I think the majority would be around 3,500 votes in favour of DAP.

Actual results:
(P163) Kulai - DAP won by a majority of 13,450 votes
Bukit Permai - UMNO won by a majority of 3,369 votes
Bukit Batu - PKR won by a majority of 4,015 votes
Senai - DAP won by a majority of 11,227 votes

P164 - Pontian

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 14,444 votes

State seats (2008):
N53 - Benut
UMNO won by a majority of 6,304 votes.

Malay 78%; Chinese 18%; Others 4%
Voters (2013): 21,521
Voters (2008): 18,646

N54 - Pulai Sebatang
MCA won by a majority of 5,765 votes.

Malay 62%; Chinese 35%; Others 2%
Voters (2013): 28,232
Voters (2008): 24,618

About 2,375 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level).

My prediction:
Benut to be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,000 votes]
Pulai Sebatang to be retained by MCA with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I expect UMNO to retain Pontian comfortably, although their majority would definitely be slashed to about 9,600 votes. Ahmad Maslan (Deputy Minister in PM's department) is not some stranger we haven't known before. He's an UMNO bigwig, and he definitely has experience to deal with it.

Actual results:
(P164) Pontian - UMNO won by a majority of 13,727 votes
Benut - UMNO won by a majority of 6,572 votes
Pulai Sebatang - MCA won by a majority of 3,412 votes

P165 - Tanjung Piai

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 12,371 votes

State seats (2008):
N55 - Pekan Nenas
MCA won by a majority of 3,324 votes

Chinese 58%; Malay 39%; Others 2%
Voters (2013): 32,562
Voters (2008): 28,012

N56 - Kukup
UMNO won by a majority of 8,639 votes.

Malay 69%; Chinese 28%; Others 3%
Voters (2013): 19,438
Voters (2008): 17,689

Only 408 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). A non-factor in the context of Tanjung Piai.

My prediction:
Pekan Nenas would fall to the DAP with a comfortable margin [2,500 votes]
Kukup would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [7,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? MCA would survive the onslaught of the Chinese votes going against them in this seat, because they have the Malay voters in Kukup to thank for their strong support. Split-voting is a negligible factor, hence I think MCA would win this one by 4,800 votes.

Actual results:
(P165) Tanjung Piai - MCA won by a majority of 5,457 votes
Pekan Nenas - DAP won by a majority of 2,669 votes
Kukup - UMNO won by a majority of 6,946 votes

Overall analysis (Part 8):
Things are looking better for PR in this final part of the analysis. If things go to plan, Gelang Patah and Kulai will fall to DAP tomorrow. Pontian would remain an UMNO fortress for years to come, while it's going to be a close fight in Tanjung Piai between MCA and DAP. However, it has to be noted that DAP fielded a Malay candidate (Madhzir Ibrahim), this may potentially appeal to the Malay voters in particular, although the impact won't be significant.  

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?
Parliament: BN 19-7 PR
State: BN 37-19 PR

As the analysis comes to a close, we can see that PR can win 7 parliament seats in Johor at best, despite the valiant efforts of campaigning during the last 2 weeks. It is all there for us to see how Johor would remain a BN fortress, although it is now weakened as compared to 2008. And as we can see, PR has just gained enough seats at state level to prevent BN's 2/3 majority in the state assembly. This will be quite a change from 2008.

Only voting day tomorrow can decide whether my predictions would be correct or otherwise. I've done my analysis based on an honest and realistic assessment of the current political sentiments.

The most important thing we can do now is to vote tomorrow and pray. We will see what happens in the next 24 hours, in what could be a defining moment for our country.

Actual results:
Parliament: BN 21-5 PR
State: BN 38-18 PR