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Friday, 30 December 2011

Planned protest against demolishing TTDI market

As a TTDI resident, I feel obliged to join the protests at 10am tomorrow, as me and my mom always buy our groceries there. I want to add one more voice to the protests, making it more lively than it will be.

Nearing the end of 2011

Another year has come and go. It only feels like yesterday that I was still in my summer holidays before continuing my final year degree studies. Well, it wasn't exactly a holiday as I underwent imternship in KPMG for 2 months (including spending a month in Johor). Going to Kulim Berhad is still fresh in my mind, and they make headlines very recently with their intention to sell off their majority stake in QSR Brands, which in turn owns KFC. I wish I would still be an auditor now and earn myself another trip to Ulu Tiram and bombard the employees with a lot of questions with regards to the stake in QSR.

Oh well, what can we look forward in 2012? I'm already 22, going on to 23 next October. The most anticipated event would be the General Election. With the uncertain political on-goings in Malaysia, it's hard to determine where the votes would go this time around. I'm a first-time voter, like thousands of others who had registered post-GE 12. These 1st-time voters would be a make-or-break in forming the next government of Malaysia. But, this is only crucial if Sabah and Sarawak tilted more in favour of the opposition, which is highly unlikely in Sabah, due to the lack of leadership in PR, as well as the lack of recognition towards local-based parties in Sabah and Sarawak. I can only hope that the opposition would give way to the local-based parties to face UMNO heads on in Sabah, then only we would have a fighting chance to add to the 1 parliamentary seat of Kota Kinabalu. The main priority would be to avoid 3-cornered fights or more, but I don't see that issue being solved anytime soon. No compromise is the big problem. There's no problem of compromise in Peninsula Malaysia, but in East Malaysia, that seems to be persistent. I can only predict at best, PR would be adding 5-10 seats from East Malaysia in addition to the ones they currently hold (Kuching, Sibu, Kota Kinabalu), but that would be insufficient to win even a simple majority to form the new federal government.

BN also has nothing much to worry about (despite whatever they are saying in the media, be it mainstream or alternative), as their 3R strategy (race, religion, royalty) is working very well in order to swing the Malay votes back into their fold for the next GE, but they would still struggle in the urban areas. Lucky for them, there is more non-urban areas than urban areas. This sort of imbalance is a concern for Malaysia's regional development policies for the future, as they know rural areas rely mainly on the mainstream media, and that's where their main vote base is. They have a fighting chance in Penang to defeat the PR-led government where they swing most of the Malays to their side over the last 3 years with endless propaganda. Kelantan? Maybe they can eat into the current majority held by the PAS-led government, but that's about it. They are wary of Nik Aziz as a formidable political foe in Kelantan, and they're going to have a hard time uniting UMNO Kelantan, with all the in-fighting going on. Selangor? It seems they can defeat PR with the issue of trash not being collected. Sabotage is the only thing they need, and it's working well. Kedah? Very uncertain on where the votes would go. Perak? That would be a very interesting battlefield, their chance to justify the power grab that happened back in February 2009. But it may also be a chance for the silent voters to show their discontent at the power grab.

Well, that's the states being currently held by PR. What about those held by BN? Perlis is as safe as the Rock of Gibraltar. Terengganu is unpredictable whereby voters can extremely swing from one side to another (as it happened during the 1999 GE, they were solidly behind PAS, only for them to thrash PAS in 2004). There's also a huge civil war (not literally a war, but big spats on many issues) between the pro-Idris Jusoh faction and pro-Ahmad Said faction. The former is the previous Terengganu MB, while the latter is the current Terengganu MB. But whether it'll be enough to swing the voters back to PAS remains to be seen. I think the impact would be minimal somehow. Pahang? With the Lynas issue pretty big and still ongoing, maybe the opposition can win a few more seats, but never enough to bring down the state government. N9? With Isa Samad back in the fold, we won't see PR coming so close quietly again like they did in the last GE (21-15 state seats in favour of BN). Malacca? It'll be interesting to see if Ali Rustam can be defeated by PAS candidate Bakrin Sidek in Bukit Baru, which may see BN defending Malacca, but a real possibility that its CM may be defeated. Johor? An UMNO fortress forever. If anyone of you remember the Tenang by-election, that is your indicator of how strong Johor is in the hands of UMNO. Sabah and Sarawak tak payah cakaplah.

In summary, it'll be an unpredictable GE. More Malay votes going back to UMNO, but more Chinese votes are swinging away from MCA to the opposition. Indian votes? Err... We can't really read what is on their minds. But I'm assuming BN will get the lion's share, except for those educated ones. But the Malay votes are all that BN needs in order to retain control, and I foresee a 2/3 majority for them next GE.

Sunday, 4 December 2011

Graduate of Monash University

Alhamdulillah, my results are out, and I can finally graduate after 3 years of long, hard studies.

AFW3021 - Performance Measurement & Control
Internal - 34.5/40
External - 49.5/60
Total - 84/100 (HD)

AFW3041 - Auditing & Assurance
Internal - 20/30
External - 50/70
Total - 70/100 (D)

AFW3050 - Financial Accounting Issues
Internal - 29/40
External 48/60
Total - 77/100 (D)

ECW3143 - Economics of Money & Banking
Internal - 25.5/30
External - 57.5/70
Total - 83/100 (HD)

Thursday, 10 November 2011

My GE-13 predictions (Part 1)

I won't go into detail yet as I still have to study for my Auditing exam coming next Tuesday (15/11/2011). But I'm just going to give my rough prediction based on past statistics and towards which direction will it swing.

There are only 3 parliamentary seats in Perlis. I expect Padang Besar and Kangar to be retained by UMNO-led BN. However, Arau is a hot seat with the majority only being 300 votes in favour of UMNO. They will definitely face a run for their money from PAS heavyweight Dr Haron Din, a respectable figure in the religious field.

Optimistic prediction: BN 2-1 PR
Pessimistic prediction: BN 3-0 PR

There are 15 parliamentary seats in Kedah. Langkawi, Jerlun and Kubang Pasu are expected to be retained by BN. Alor Setar is definitely a hot seat (& importantly urban seat), whereby MCA is most likely to be defeated by PKR, as the majority is only 184 votes last time out. In PAS-held seats, they are expected to retain Pokok Sena, Pendang and Baling. Padang Terap, Jerai and Sik are potential seats that could swing either to BN or PAS, so PAS are at risk of losing in those 3 places. In the PKR-held seats however, the swings are so unpredictable that even a 10,000 majority seat does not seem to be safe enough. Not to mention that Zulkifli Nordin and Gobalakrishnan left PKR beforehand, so Kulim Bandar Baharu and Padang Serai are up for grabs. Kuala Kedah, Merbok and Sungai Petani are also swinging either way, but I see Johari Abdul having the best chance of retaining his seat in Sungai Petani, maybe albeit by a reduced majority due to a lot of protest votes coming from UMNO members.

Optimistic prediction: BN 3-12 PR
Pessimistic prediction: BN 11-4 PR

That's the end of Part 1. I'll continue as soon as I'm done with my Auditing paper. The wait for whether Najib will dissolve Parliament tomorrow is killing me.

Saturday, 5 November 2011

Latest update

I got 2 exams left for this semester.
Once I'm free of exams, I'm planning to do an analysis of parliamentary seats and identify hot seats and safe seats for both sides, along with giving my probable prediction for each seat for the next GE.

Monday, 31 October 2011

Internal marks for 2011 (Sem 2)

AFW3021 - 34.5/40 (HD)
AFW3041 - 20/30 (C)
AFW3050 - 29/40 (D)
ECW3143 - 25.5/30 (HD)

My internal marks are already known with certainty now, with my 1st paper coming up this Wednesday, which is AFW3021 (Performance Measurement & Control), followed by ECW3143 (Economics of Money & Banking) on Friday, followed by AFW3050 (Financial Accounting Issues) next Tuesday, and finally AFW3041 (Auditing & Assurance) on the 15th, also on a Tuesday.

And so, if you noticed the sequence, they arranged my exam papers according to how strong my internal marks is by chance. I just hope the AFW3021 paper won't be as screwed up as last year (I saw the past year, it was hell). I need to practice a lot for AFW3050, or I'll forget what entries to put in. It's a good thing I got 1 whole week to study Auditing, so that ain't so bad. For ECW3143, I finished most of my notes, as it's just a matter of remembering it.

Wednesday, 5 October 2011

P195 - Bandar Kuching

N9 - Padungan
Wong King Wei (DAP) = 11,957 votes (+11,957)
Sim Kiang Chiok (SUPP-BN) = 4,073 votes (-2,512)
Dominique Ng Kim Ho (Bebas) = 439 votes (-7,563)

Majority = 7,884 votes [2006 = 1,417 votes]
No. of voters = 23,499
Voters turnout (without spoilt votes) = 70.08%

Chinese 91%; Melanau 5%; Iban 1.6%; Bidayuh 1.1%; Others 1%; Orang Ulu 0.1%

This seat was previously held by the now independent Ng Kim Ho, who had quit PKR due to the dispute for this seat with the DAP. When DAP had agreed with PKR to fight in this seat, he left. Regardless, it shows that voters vote based on party, and almost no emphasis on candidate, as he had found out to his cost. Due to the wave of anti-Taib, the urbanites rose to the call and gave DAP a thumping majority over the waning SUPP. However, one must note that this is a Chinese majority seat, and it is no surprise that the sentiments of the East Malaysian Chinese are similar to those of the counterparts of West Malaysia.

N10 - Pending
Violet Yong Wui Wui (DAP) = 14,375 votes (+3,223)
Sim Kui Hian (SUPP-BN) = 6,780 votes (-480)

Majority = 7,595 votes [2006 = 4,372 votes]
No. of voters = 29,375
Voters turnout [without spoilt votes] = 72.02%

Chinese 90%; Melanau 5%; Iban 3%; Bidayuh 1.4%; Others 0.5%; Orang Ulu 0.1%

This seat is still a stronghold of DAP, a fortress that became even more formidable as the recent state elections suggest. It also suggests that the urban areas are mostly anti-establishment, making it very difficult for BN to regain their footing due to the age of the Internet. But like the Padungan seat, this is another Chinese majority seat, and it's no surprise to see DAP having a strong foothold on it. They are recruiting as many non-Chinese members as they can, but I don't believe that they still have the confidence to fight in seats that are not Chinese majority. But one thing is for sure, parties like MCA and SUPP are depending upon UMNO and PBB for their survival in this difficult political climate.

To sum it all up, all I can say to BN is that they can forget Kuching. It's so urban that for them to win, they have to ask the pigs to literally fly. That is how impossible it is.

Total: Non-BN 26,332 - 10,853 BN

Prediction for next GE: DAP to retain Bandar Kuching hands down...

Monday, 11 July 2011

My recent uni results

1st of all, I can't praise Allah highly enough for His endless bliss in my life.

AFW3040 - Accounting Theory
Internal marks: 18.5/30
Exam marks: 52.5/70
Total: 71/100 (Distinction)

BTW3221 - Taxation Law & Practice
Internal marks: 21/30
Exam marks: 49/70
Total: 70/100 (Distinction)

ECW3146 - Regional Development & Policy
Internal marks: 33/40
Exam marks: 48/60
Total: 81/100 (High Distinction)

ECW3830 - Business, Competition & Regulation
Internal marks: 24/30
Exam marks: 57/70
Total: 81/100 (High Distinction)

Friday, 8 July 2011

P194 - Petra Jaya

N6 - Tupong
Daud bin Abdul Rahman (PBB-BN) = 8,304 votes (+1,419)
Baharuddin @ Din Shah bin Mokhsen (PKR) = 3,753 votes (+1,440)

Majority = 4,551 votes [2006 = 4,572 votes]
No. of voters = 17,253
Voters turnout (without spoilt votes) = 69.88%

Melanau 79.6%; Chinese 19%; Iban 0.5%; Others 0.5%; Bidayuh 0.4%

BN's majority in Tupong has relatively remained around the same level as in 2006, albeit reduced by only 21 votes. Both parties have increased their vote base, although PBB still has a strong footing among the Melanau voters.

N7 - Samariang
Sharifah Hasidah bt Sayeed Aman Ghazali (PBB-BN) = 8,008 votes (+2,643)
Zulrusdi bin Mohamad Hol (PKR) = 2,577 votes (-300)

Majority = 5,431 votes (2006 = 2,488 votes)
No. of voters = 15,543
Voters turnout (without spoilt votes) = 68.1%

Melanau 89.19%; Bidayuh 7.14%; Others 1.84%; Chinese 1.83%

PBB had a big swing in its favour, further consolidating their position in Sarawak with the ever present influence of Taib Mahmud among the Samariang voters. PKR suffered a decline in support here, due partly to the announcement of appointing Baru Bian as new CM if PR had won in Sarawak.

N8 - Satok
Abg Abd Rahman Zohari bin Abg Openg (PBB-BN) = 4,691 votes (+469)
Ahmad Nazib bin Johari (PKR) = 1,891 votes (+467)

Majority = 2,800 votes (2006 = 2,798 votes)
No. of voters = 10,447
Voters turnout (without spoilt votes) = 63%

Melanau 80.3%; Chinese 19%; Iban 0.4%; Others 0.2%; Bidayuh 0.1%

PBB's majority increased by 2 votes from 2006, as both parties gained an increase in vote base. With this being another majority Melanau seat, it is no surprise that PBB has a firm footing in Sarawak for a long time.

To sum it all up, I have only 2 words to say to PKR: FORGET IT!

BN 21,003 - 8,221 Non-BN

Prediction for next GE: BN to retain Petra Jaya hands down...

Tuesday, 5 July 2011

BERSIH 2.0 compromise

I would just like to make a statement to say a job well done to the Yang di-Pertuan Agong for intervening in the BERSIH crisis and to allow BERSIH and Najib to reach a compromise. At least BERSIH are now able to rally in the stadium without really affecting KL traffic on July 9, and to Najib, well done for being able to show that you are a leader that can compromise, although I am still not happy as a citizen that the PSM6 (including the Sungai Siput MP) are still being held under the draconian Emergency Ordinance. As much as you want to leave it to the police, you have to intervene to show your good side of democracy. It is high time to correct the wrongs that you made in the 1st place.


Waiting for results

AFW3040 - Accounting Theory
Internals: 18.5/30

BTW3221 - Income Tax Law
Internals: 21/30

ECW3830 - Business, Competition & Regulation
Internals: 24/30

ECW3146 - Regional Development & Policy
Internals: 33/40

Results will be coming out this Sunday night... Pray hard for good results...

Friday, 17 June 2011

Predictions for EPL next season (August)

Saturday (13/8/2011)

Blackburn v Wolverhampton [2-2]
Fulham v Aston Villa [2-0]
Liverpool v Sunderland [3-1]
Man City v Swansea [5-0]
Newcastle v Arsenal [1-1]
QPR v Bolton [1-2]
Stoke v Chelsea [0-2]
Tottenham v Everton [2-1]
West Brom v Man Utd [1-2]
Wigan v Norwich [1-0]

Saturday (20/8/2011)

Arsenal v Liverpool [1-1]
Aston Villa v Blackburn [2-1]
Bolton v Man City [1-2]
Chelsea v West Brom [4-0]
Everton v QPR [2-0]
Man Utd v Tottenham [2-1]
Norwich v Stoke [0-0]
Sunderland v Newcastle [2-2]
Swansea v Wigan [2-1]
Wolverhampton v Fulham [1-0]

Saturday (27/8/2011)

Aston Villa v Wolverhampton [2-0]
Blackburn v Everton [1-2]
Chelsea v Norwich [6-0]
Liverpool v Bolton [3-1]
Man Utd v Arsenal [2-0]
Newcastle v Fulham [1-1]
Swansea v Sunderland [1-2]
Tottenham v Man City [0-1]
West Brom v Stoke [1-1]
Wigan v QPR [2-1]

Arsenal 0-2-1 [2-4] --> 15th
Aston Villa 2-0-1 [4-3] --> 6th
Blackburn 0-1-2 [4-6] --> 17th
Bolton 1-0-2 [4-6] --> 13th
Chelsea 3-0-0 [12-0] --> 1st
Everton 2-0-1 [5-3] --> 5th
Fulham 1-1-1 [3-2] --> 8th
Liverpool 2-1-0 [7-3] --> 4th
Man City 3-0-0 [8-1] --> 2nd
Man Utd 3-0-0 [6-2] --> 3rd
Newcastle 0-3-0 [4-4] --> 11th
Norwich 0-1-2 [0-7] --> 19th
QPR 0-0-3 [2-6] --> 20th
Stoke 0-2-1 [1-3] --> 16th
Sunderland 1-1-1 [5-6] --> 9th
Swansea 1-0-2 [3-8] -->14th
Tottenham 1-0-2 [3-4] --> 12th
West Brom 0-1-2 [2-7] --> 18th
Wigan 2-0-1 [4-3] --> 7th
Wolverhampton 1-1-1 [3-4] --> 10th

Flying off the blocks as usual for Chelsea, while Man Utd will have a tough start which they will get it over with by the skin of their teeth. Man City would also be expected to fly out of the blocks, with Liverpool lurking behind under Daglish's stewardship. QPR is expected to struggle early on in the season, if they sell off their star Adel Taarabt. Spurs would also encounter a slow start to the season with matches against both Manchesters predicted to end in defeat.

Tuesday, 3 May 2011

P193 - Santubong

N3 - Tanjung Datu
Adenan bin Satim (PBB-BN) = 4,218 votes (-327)
Nani bt Sahari (PAS) = 1,002 votes (+1,002)
Gilbert Asson Anak Kulong (Bebas) = 215 votes (-142)

Majority = 3,216 votes [2006 = 4,136 votes]
No. of voters = 7,883
Voter turnout (without spoilt votes) = 68.95%

Melanau 50.99%; Chinese 20.49%; Iban 19.68%; Bidayuh 8.58%; Others 0.26%

BN has their majority slightly reduced, probably due to some Chinese and Iban votes going to PAS, while PBB grabs the lion's share of the Melanau votes. PAS is the biggest gainer in gained votes (partly due to contesting in place of PKR), while BN is the biggest loser in lost votes, even though it is not by much.

N4 - Pantai Damai
Abdul Rahman bin Junaidi (PBB-BN) = 7,425 votes (+2,208)
Wan Zainal Abidin bin Wan Senusi (PKR) = 2,354 votes (-699)
Suhaini bin Selamat (Bebas) = 111 votes (+111)

Majority = 5,071 votes [2006 = 2,164 votes]
No. of voters = 13,761
Voter turnout (without spoilt votes) = 71.87%

Melanau 93.4%; Chinese 3.7%; Iban 1.9%; Bidayuh 1.07%; Others 0.45%; Orang Ulu 0.05%

BN has increased their majority by more than 2-fold. This is despite the reduction in Melanau voters from 2006, which consists of nearly 96%. It goes to show that majority of Melanau people are solidly behind PBB, which is headed by Taib Mahmud. This is maybe partly due to the fact that Baru Bian will be the next CM as announced by DAP, if PR had won the elections. It is also partly due to the fact that voters here are mostly happy with Abdul Rahman's performances as their representative. The biggest gainer is BN in this case, while the biggest loser has to be PKR due to some loss of support from the Melanau voters.

N5 - Demak Laut
Hazland bin Abg Hipni (PBB-BN) = 5,522 votes (+428)
Ali Hossen bin Abang (PKR) = 1,770 votes (+281)

Majority = 3,752 votes [2006 = 3,605 votes]
No. of voters = 10,420
Voter turnout (without spoilt votes) = 69.98%

Melanau 88.7%; Chinese 7.9%; Iban 3.6%; Others 1.1%; Orang Ulu 1%

Both BN and PKR gained in votes, although it is BN who has managed to increase their majority slightly from 2006, largely again to Melanau votes, which has been their main vote bank in Sarawak.

Just to sum it up, the Melanau voters are mostly happy with PBB being in power. They don't see any change being beneficial to them, despite the many allegations against Taib Mahmud for corruption and cronyism. PR can just forget this parliamentary seat next GE, as the total majority is 12,039 (3,216 + 5,071 + 3,752) in the 3 state seats above.

BN votes = 17,165; PKR votes = 4,124; PAS votes = 1,002; Bebas votes = 326
BN 17,165 - 5,126 Non-BN; Bebas = 326

Prediction for GE: BN to retain Santubong hands down...

Saturday, 16 April 2011

P192 - Mas Gading

N1 - Opar
Ranum anak Mina (SUPP-BN) = 3,360 votes (-225)
Boniface Willy anak Tumek (PKR) = 1,354 votes (+1354)
Stephen anak Sagir (SNAP) = 674 votes (-728)
Joseph Jindy anak Peter Rosen (Bebas) = 475 votes (+475)

Majority = 2,006 votes [2006 = 2,183 votes]
No. of voters = 8,099
Spoilt votes = 68 votes
Voter turnout = 73.47%

Bidayuh 75.66%; Iban 13.37%; Chinese 7.24%; Melanau 3.03%; Orang Ulu 0.43%; Others 0.27%

BN votes = 3,360; Non-BN votes = 2,028; Bebas votes = 475
Majority = 1,332

BN still has its majority being reduced slightly despite the multi-cornered fight, which would have yielded a lower majority had it been a straight fight. However, the biggest gainer is PKR in terms of the votes gained, while SNAP is the biggest loser due to the presence of PKR.

N2 - Tasik Biru
Peter Nansian anak Ngusie (SPDP-BN) = 5,829 votes (-564)
John Tenewi Nuek (PKR) = 3,757 votes (+3,757)
Frankie Jurem anak Nyombui (SNAP) = 825 votes (-2,365)

Majority = 2,072 votes [2006 = 3,203 votes]
No. of voters = 15,100
Spoilt votes = 120 votes
Voter turnout = 69.91%

Bidayuh 64.8%; Chinese 27.03%; Melanau 5.67%; Iban 2.07%; Others 0.43%

BN votes = 5,829; Non-BN votes = 4,582
Majority = 1,247

Same reason as the above despite the 3 cornered fight. Majority could have been even lower if it was a straight fight. PKR is again the biggest gainer in gained votes, while SNAP is again the biggest loser.

Just to sum it up, the Bidayuhs are mostly not that ready for change. It's gonna be a hard parliamentary seat to win for PR in the next GE, as the total majority is 2,579 (1,332 + 1,247) in the 2 state seats above. However, there is a sense of optimism, as long the ground work is started immediately.

BN votes = 9,189; PKR votes = 5,111; SNAP votes = 1,300; Bebas = 475
BN 9,189 - 6,411 Non-BN; Bebas = 475

Prediction for GE: BN to retain Mas Gading parliamentary seat...

Sarawak state elections

In summary, BN has won 55 seats, while PR has won 15 seats. The lone remaining seat is won by the independent candidate in N54 Pelagus.

I'll do a full statistical analysis soon when I get over my assignments and exams hopefully.

Monday, 28 February 2011

Merlimau by-election prediction

10,679 voters (Merlimau)
6,935 Malay voters (64.94%)
2,218 Chinese voters (20.77%)
1,510 Indian voters (14.14%)
16 Other voters (0.15%)

My prediction:
Malays = BN 65%-35% PAS; BN 4,508 - 2,427 PAS
Chinese = BN 55%-45% PAS; BN 1,220 - 998 PAS
Indian = BN 80%-20% PAS; BN 1,208 - 302 PAS
Others = BN 100%-0% PAS; BN 16-0 PAS
Total = BN 6,952 - 3,727 PAS
Total majority = 3,225 [BN]

Assuming a turnout as follows:
Malays = 80% [BN 4,000 - 1,548 PAS]
Chinese = 70% [BN 900 - 653 PAS]
Indians = 55% [BN 700 - 130 PAS]
Others = 100% [BN 16 - 0 PAS]
Total = BN 5,616 - 2,331 PAS
Total majority = 3,285 [BN]

Now, if we see the pattern between 2004 and 2008, 2004 is a year of Mr Clean, which is in contrast to the 2008 tsunami. 2004 is BN's best ever results in the General Election, while 2008 is BN's worst ever results in the General Election. As far as where the economy is heading, majority of citizens from every race in Malaysia is very happy to stick with BN, possibly until the next GE, which is widely speculated this year, although I think it's going to be next year instead as both Najib and Muhyiddin are on state tours every month until all states are visited by them both.

However, we must remember than BN tends to do well in by-elections as they can focus all their huge resources toward the by-election, although it is likewise for PR, with an exception. BN has far more resources [mainstream media, 1Malaysia NGO, campaign budget to give voters cash], unlike PR who can only rely on those who read the alternative media and receive donations from members/citizens all over the country, which is still considered small fish as compared to BN's control of the tax money, being the government of the day.

Now, I don't really like Ali Rustam's view of a democracy. He claims that it is BN supporters 1st, only when it comes to the poor he won't discriminate. What kind of democracy is that, really?! Where did all those state budgets come from? Or even the federal budget for that matter?


Now, not everyone in Malaysia pays tax, but for those citizens who had to pay tax, they had to pay regardless of what their party affiliations are. So Ali Rustam, by his logic is saying that BN taxpayers get the priority ahead of PR taxpayers. In that case, why don't they just collect the taxes from just the BN taxpayers? It would have been more understandable that way if only BN taxpayers pay tax to the government (which happens to be BN in power).

What Ali Rustam forgets is that we're talking about the taxpayers' money, regardless of their political affiliation. No one should be given priority ahead of the other. It's against the principle of democracy itself if they discriminate taxpayers according to their political affiliation. Besides, Penang is the highest contributor of tax by state, and what do they get in return from the federal government? Peanuts. Although Penang now has the highest value of FDI (foreign direct investment) for the year, it is not the same as tax. We go back to the fundamental economic formula, which is C + I + G + NX. Now, tax (T) contributes to the government coffers to fund for their spending (G). So, we have the formula of T-G = Budget surplus/deficit (depending on whether T>G, or T
Thus, my point is, tax is paid regardless of the citizens' political affiliation. I repeat, there should not be discrimination towards taxpayers regardless of who they support in politics. Therefore, Ali Rustam's logic is fatally flawed (or in other words, he is using the slippery slope argument, which is trying to justify something without a strong enough argument). Even if I were the PM, I would never discriminate funds against states, even if it's ruled by the other party, not mine. They should be given what is rightfully theirs or it is cruel (zalim).

Coming back to the by-election context, PR has surprisingly won more by-elections than most people thought, considering the resources BN had at disposal. However, realistically, we are seeing the Malaysian people warming up to 1Malaysia, and with the economy on the up-slope, the rule of economics says that a growing economy always favour the incumbent government, which is BN.

On another point, 2008 saw a large number of protest votes against BN, which is mostly done by UMNO members. They are dissatisfied with the governance of former PM Abdullah Badawi. However, with Najib at the helm as PM, he is seen to be stronger than his predecessor, Abdullah Badawi. UMNO members, and even the Malaysian Chinese citizens, are warming up to his leadership, although I think it's mostly economically factors which caused the Chinese to come back to BN bit-by-bit. The Indians who voted against BN because of the Hindraf rally has now come back in droves to the BN, based on recent by-elections. Najib has sent a subtle message to the MIC which is to remove Samy Vellu sooner than his planned retirement, and it was done without a hitch, with Samy's successor now at the helm of MIC.

It is easy for PR to retain most of their core support, but it will never be enough if they were to defeat BN in the next GE. What they can do now is to consolidate their base of support and draw the fence-sitters to their side. It is highly unlikely that the same UMNO protest voters would ditch their party that has been their life and most possibly death. The next GE won't be about the converted, it will be mostly winning over the fence sitters, and the new young voters (including me). We young voters will be the next voice, which is why Najib is lobbying hard to win over the young voters.

However, recent campus elections suggested that BN will have a lot to do to win over the students, as Pro-Mahasiswa (mostly leaning towards PR) had stunned Pro-Aspirasi (mostly leaning towards BN) in winning 8 out of the 13 national universities (or IPTA, which is "Institut Pengajian Tinggi Awam"). This is a big leap by Pro-Mahasiswa who had even taken down Pro-Aspirasi in their own backyard. Before the introduction of the e-voting system, which had mostly compromised the students' privacy in who they are voting for, the Pro-Mahasiswa would normally win up to 70% of the student votes. After the introduction however, it has been mostly pro-Aspirasi, until recently that is.

Going back to the by-election context, it is expected that BN would increase their majority in Merlimau from what they get in 2008, due to the good economy and a firmer leadership portrayed by Najib. PR would have no problems in retaining most of their core support among all races, but they have to find something extra to stem the tide of feel-goodness of the voters towards BN, especially those among fence-sitters.

I can only wish for a clean campaign from both sides, although it's quite unlikely so. Edited lewd pictures of PR leaders are making the rounds during the by-election already, as reported on Malaysiakini. However, I can only hope the voters are smart enough to reject dirty tactics by either political party (I'm only saying this in general).


Prediction: 3,285 (BN)
Actual: 3,643 (BN)

I may have psychic powers. =3

Friday, 18 February 2011

What were my activities in Berwick

I flew back to Melbourne last Sunday night and arrived the following morning. It's a bit weird to be separated once more from my beloved parents and my aunt who took care of me since I was a child until I was 12. 3 months holiday is just too short in my opinion. 2 of those months were used for my internship at KPMG under the Audit P department. It was an interesting work experience, although I felt I could have done a lot better.

It was tiring going through the long lines at the immigration and declaration department at the airport. After that, it was another long wait for the Monash transport to send me to Berwick. It had been an interesting chat with the chauffeur. The other 2 students in the car were from China and Singapore respectively. The Chinese guy is taking international business as his major (if I'm not mistaken) while the Singaporean guy is majoring in law. And the Malaysian guy (which is me) is majoring in Accounting & Economics. And so we have it, 3 different people taking different majors. We are a weird bunch, LOL. Not to mention going to different destinations. ;P

As I reached the Monash Residential Office (MRO), I can see some familiar faces around. I got my keys from Paul and I've been moved to the other Flat as they have closed down Flat #52 as there were no people living there anymore. So we're just left with Flat #51 and Flat #50. As I reached Flat #51B, it was kind of surprising to see familiar faces like Nicholas and Johan Ariff (from Monash Sunway like I was) and to have John Morton (the intellectual Man U fan) as my housemates is just awesome. Now we have 4 people (including myself) in our Flat. So we're just probably waiting for who the other housemate will be. Most likely it'll be a guy since Flat #50A are made up of all girls, haha.

TJ (Teck Juan in short) also came to our flat to spend a night or two as he has to help out with International Enrolment Day (which explains why I have to come back early due to enrolment). Also, Erwin and Alexander are living in the Flat next to ours. Boy, so many familiar faces. We spent 2 straight nights playing UNO cards. Dang, it was so much fun, especially when it comes to playing draw cards (for those who aren't familiar with UNO cards, it's +2 or +4 cards, where the player has to take 2 or 4 cards from the deck, or even more).

I also get to know new people living in the Flats during the Enrolment Day. It's interesting that they are taking some common subjects with me. I guess we'll keep in contact very soon.

Onto other things, I'm becoming active in sports once more. I played ping pong for 2 straight days with a 17 year old girl living in the Hall of Residence. Her attacking play is pretty good, but my defence ruled the day. We played like 23 sets on the 1st of 2 days, and I outscored her 21-2, not to say she was an easy opponent. ;P I have to thank her for rediscovering my defensive form. XD On the 2nd of 2 days (which is yesterday), we played like 19 sets during Karaoke Night for those new residents. Again, I outscored her 18 sets to 1, but that requires me to be at my defensive best, again. She's really my perfect opponent to rediscover my form. With the ping pong competition coming up at the end of March, it's looking rosy.

Anyway, it's time for me to sign off and take my bath and prepare to go to the mosque for Friday prayers at Westall (25 minutes trip by train from Berwick). Salam (to whichever Muslim readers reading this post) and goodbye (to non-Muslim readers) for now.

Sunday, 30 January 2011

Tenang by-election results

Tahniah kepada Azhar Ibrahim dari parti BN atas memenangi PRK Tenang di Johor. Kepada PAS, janganlah berputus asa atau berkecil hati dengan keputusan ini. Teruskan usaha untuk memenangi undi rakyat.

Azhar Ibrahim (BN) - 6,699 (+332)
Normala Sudirman (PAS) - 2,992 (-883)
Majority - 3,707 (+1215)

Ayuh kita ke Merlimau untuk PRK yang ke-15 sejak PRU 2008.

Wednesday, 19 January 2011

Possible by-election

Less than an hour ago, the Selangor speaker of the State Assembly, Teng Chang Khim (also Sungai Pinang assemblyman) has announced that the state seat of Port Klang is vacant. This seat was an UMNO stronghold until a dramatic swing causes it to fall to PKR in the last GE. However, the Port Klang assemblyman, Badrul Hisham Abdullah, has left PKR in 2009 to become a BN-friendly independent.

It remains to be seen whether the Election Commission would accept the Speaker's decision though. They made a rare decision of not holding a by-election for the state seat of Kota Siputeh in Kedah last year, despite the UMNO assemblyman not attending the state assembly for more than 6 months. Will it remain precedent?

In the meantime, when we have more updates on the issue, take a look at the breakdown for the Port Klang seat, which lies under the parliamentary seat of Klang (MP - Charles Santiago [DAP]):

Badrul Hisham Abdullah (PKR) - 12,397 votes
Roselinda Abd Jamil (UMNO) - 7,990 votes
Nazir bin Mansor (BEBAS) - 580 votes
Majority - 4,407 votes
Breakdown - Malay 55.20%; Chinese 27.10%; Indian 17.40%; Others 0.30%

Datuk Zainal @ Zakari Mad Derus (UMNO) - 12,312 votes
Krishnasamy a/l Punusamy (PKR) - 5,075 votes
Majority - 7,237 votes

Number of voters (as of 2008): 28,456

Tuesday, 18 January 2011

Tenang voters will determine next GE

In the report of Malaysian Insider today, it is highly speculated that Najib will use this by-election as a yardstick to determine when the snap polls will be held. If UMNO wins by more than 5,000 votes in this by-election, then snap polls will be held in June this year. However, if UMNO fails to achieve their target in this by-election, it is more likely that they will push back snap elections until the 4th quarter of this year or even next year.

To the Tenang people in northern Johor, your PM's fate lies in your hands. Vote wisely, and make sure UMNO doesn't achieve their target. Happy voting on the 30th this month.