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Saturday, 2 November 2013

Sungai Limau by-election

With 2 days of campaigning to go before the actual voting process on this Monday (4/11/2013), I'm observing a very tight race, with BN sure to significantly slash the majority held by PAS in GE13. They are in a position to win this seat for the 1st time since 1990. Let's consider the demographics below:

Malays - 25,323 voters
Chinese - 1,842 voters
Indian - 15 voters
Total - 27,180 voters

I would think that the prediction would be as follows:
Malays - 85% turnout (21,525 voters)
UMNO 10,945 - 10,580 PAS

Chinese - 75% turnout (1,382 voters)
UMNO 576 - 806 PAS

Indians - 100% turnout (15 voters)
UMNO 10 - 5 PAS

UMNO 11,531 - 11,391 PAS (Majority: 140 votes)

Total voter turnout: 22,922 voters (84.33%)

We have to remember that this is a by-election, whereby BN is always able to focus a lot of their machinery and money there. Whether or not the promises would be fulfilled is another matter altogether. The long-term implications to PAS would be severe, even if they suffer only a reduction in majority, what more a loss in what is considered their stronghold. This would mean the strengthening of Mukhriz's position in Kedah, which would make it impossible for PR to wrestle Kedah once more in GE14. Also, another seat for BN would mean strengthening its position to 22-14 in the State Assembly, making it just 2 seats away from gaining a 2/3 majority, which is more than likely to happen in GE14 with Mahathir's son at the helm.