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Thursday, 25 March 2010

Hulu Selangor by-election

1st of all, Al-Fatihah to Zainal Abidin Ahmad, the incumbent Hulu Selangor MP who had just passed away today.

Now, PKR won this seat last GE with a majority of only 198 votes. However, there was a large enough majority swing to ensure that MIC did not regain this seat. From their previous majority of 14,483 votes, they suffered a majority swing of 14,681 votes, which means that the seat fell to PKR.

However, gloomy chances for PR is that, of the 3 state seats under Hulu Selangor parliamentary area, all of them belonged to BN.

N5 - Hulu Bernam

This is an UMNO fortress. With 67% of the voters here are Malays, it's gonna be tough going in winning this section of the divide.

N6 - Kuala Kubu Bahru

Used to be an MCA fortress by their large majority of 7,000+ votes back in 2004. However, come March 8, it was dwindled down to just a majority of 448 votes. Thus, there's a 50-50 chance to win over this section of voters.

N7 - Batang Kali

Still an UMNO fortress if you ask me, although it's majority of 2,179 votes on March 8 was a far cry from their majority of 8,800+ votes back in 2004. Thus, they may have a chance to win over more voters, although those chances are quite slim. I'd say a 40-60 chance for PKR to win this section.

In conclusion, although there are discrepancies that some voters would vote for different parties at different levels, this is gonna be an uphill battle for PR to defend this vulnerable seat, which used to be a traditional MIC fortress. SO, don't be surprised if MIC is fighting for this seat. This by-election will be a memorandum on how the PR government is faring in Selangor. If PR loses this by-election, the time is ripe to retake Selangor for UMNO in the next GE. But, if PR manages to defend this seat, it's gonna be an uphill task instead for UMNO to get back Selangor in the next elections, rumoured to be held next year.