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Friday, 9 April 2010

By-elections galore

Today, we received news of another death of a politician. This time it's in Sibu, Sarawak. Condolences to the late Sibu MP who died after a prolonged battle with cancer.

Not too long ago, we heard about the death of Hulu Selangor MP, causing another by-election this year. We already know when the by-election would be, which is April 25. This by-election would be a good indication of whether support is coming back to BN or support for change remains status quo.

If BN wins Hulu Selangor, that means people's support for BN is on the rise again, with a recovering economy and an unemployment rate of only 3.6%; which means good times of the economy is coming back. The rule of economics about a strong economy is that, the incumbent party would hold firm. And there's no prizes for guessing that one.

However, if BN failed to regain the Hulu Selangor seat that it lost 2 years ago, what are the implications? For me, I am lazy to think of the implications, but I know one of them is a signal to BN that retaking Selangor is never an easy task. Of course, there were rumours that the PR state government of Selangor was about to fall during the month of January 2010, with sabotage works under the alleged orders of former MB, Khir Toyo (UMNO), was already in place. There were backlogs all over the place. Thus, the stage was set.

However, it didn't really go according to plan as the death of Teoh Beng Hock at the MACC premise was hot news in Selangor, and all over Peninsula Malaysia. Almost everyone was talking about that. Thus, taking over 3 months ago wasn't a good idea at all. So they postpone it and said they will win back Selangor in the elections. We'll see about that. If majority of Selangorians are happy with PR's governance, they might give them another term in office, and vice versa.

For me, I plan to register as a voter as soon as I turn 21 this October. 1 vote can make a load of difference. Being a former BN supporter in secondary school, I was ignorant about some of the lies that the mainstream media spinned. Yup, I read newspapers, considering most of them the truth. I didn't check and balance. I don't know blogs, I don't know Malaysia-Today, I don't know Malaysiakini, I don't know Malaysian Insider, etc...

In pre-U, a friend of mine, son of ADUN Batu Buruk, was reading those blogs that I was never exposed to. So, I became curious, and I read it as well. I find that so many things that the mainstream media is hiding from us. They had almost nothing but praise for BN, which sounds one-sided in any case. But of course, the same thing happens when you read only opposition blogs without its balances. It's also one-sided. So, who do I turn to for balanced coverage of both BN and PR, and of course, not to forget, Independents? MALAYSIAKINI. Another friend of mine also gave me his username and password so that I can access Malaysiakini and read the whole news. Yes, weaknesses of BN and PR exposed well in this section. Some do their jobs well, some are sleeping on it. Malaysiakini is the best thing that can happen in politics, because they bring that check and balance to either federal or state governments alike. Letters posted on Malaysiakini were from both sides of the divide, and those fence sitters. It's enjoying to read those letters of both sides so that we can evaluate for ourselves.

Of course, there are 2 newspapers I know that are also quite balanced in their coverage of both BN and PR. "The Sun" and "Sinar Harian". I rarely read The Sun, but one of my pre-U friends worked there part-time before he went off to RMIT in Australia for studies. He said The Sun was quite balanced, and I can vindicate his statement when I read it for myself. Even sometimes I bought Sinar Harian. It's quite heartening to see people's problems being highlighted. So both sides of the political divide had their fair share of weaknesses. It's good that these daily life problems are reported so that people have a voice to those responsible, whether be it PR or BN. So, I can only wish that the rest of the mainstream media (Star, Utusan, NST, etc...) can be like Sinar Harian and The Sun. Fat chance I guess. ;P

Anyway, back to the by-elections. We all know Sibu was under Sarawak United People's Party, a component under Barisan Nasional. They won it with a majority of 3,000 last time around. Therefore, I can't see Pakatan Rakyat winning this seat, with Sabah and Sarawak are BN strongholds, except for Kota Kinabalu and Kuching. But, but... they do have a chance in the very least to slash the majority from last time, provided with the right tactics.

So, here's my 2 predictions for Hulu Selangor and Sibu:
Hulu Selangor - BN to win by a majority of 5,000 - 7,000 votes
Sibu - BN to win by a majority of 3,000 votes

Why I say Hulu Selangor is the case? This is because, it has long been a BN fortress. Back in 2004, they won this seat by a majority of 14,000+. For them to extraordinarily lose this seat is unbelievable. But since then, I can bet they have learned their lesson. Never ever take votes for granted. Serve the people, and you will be courageously rewarded with self-satisfaction.

So here's to April 25 and the other date I don't know for Sibu until EC decides. It's gonna be fireworks. Cheers.

P/S I still remember my vow that I will play ping pong left handed all day if PR wins in Hulu Selangor. Man... do I love to be a pessimist. ;P

6 comments:

masterwordsmith said...

Hi Syafiq

Thank you for reading my blog and for airing your view. You write very well and think far and deep. May there be more Malaysians like you. Take care and do keep in touch.

All the best to you.

Salam

Ahmad Syafiq said...

Thanks for visiting my blog masterwordsmith. I really appreciate it.

Salam. (I'll keep in touch, haha).

masterwordsmith said...

Hi Ahmad

Thanks for commenting in my blog again. I really enjoy the lively discussion.

You are an IB student? I taught in the A-level prog for many years and have also taught TOK and World Lit at IB level. Which centre are you at?

Indeed you are a very bright young man - prob same age as my older boy and I hope that you will continue to be moving in the right direction to an excellent university, hopefully to be a honest, upright MP one day!

Take care and stay in touch!

Salam

ramli said...

didnt you know that the wind of change is blowing in the east ??? your prediction for US and Sibu by election are well.... childish ... these are my prediction : US - PR to win by 2k - 3k majority ... SIBU PR to win by 5K - 6k 0mark my words young man

Ahmad Syafiq said...

-->Masterwordsmith

I am a former IB student. I'm now in my 2nd year at Monash Uni in Sunway. I got B for my TOK and C for my EE. Overall, I scored 32/45, which not bad considering I rarely studied at the time. Hehe.

My 1st ambition was never to be a politician. My main ambition is $$$, which is to be a chartered accountant. I may, or may not join politics one day, depending on the situation of the country at the time. Haha.

Even I had a friend of mine from IB whose dad is ADUN Batu Buruk in Terengganu. He's currently studying in Melbourne and I asked him whether he wants to be a politician like his dad one day. He said "No, because by that time PR will be in power." I was laughing at his answer, it's so funny. But yup, that was his stand.

Salam.
__________________________________
-->Ramli

My predictions are well... pessimistic. I'm not an optimist like some opposition supporters. I tend not to expect too much from something or I will be very disappointed.

I assume you're from East Malaysia since you said about the winds of change in the East (unless you correct me if I'm wrong).

Why I say Sibu would still fall to BN is because of the Batang Ai election that we had last year. Looking at the pattern, BN increased their majority there, somehow. But I'm not saying that all places in Sarawak are the same. It basically depends on choice of candidate and strategy.

But yeah, I'll take note of your words. Hehe. [Noticed that my blog has been visited by UMNO cybertroopers these last few days?)

masterwordsmith said...

Dear Ahmad

:-) You know why lah ada tetamu khas :-).

Accountancy - Excellent choice. You have a sharp analytical mind and I can see you are on your way to becoming a competent CA. I wanted my boy to do Accountancy too but I allowed him to chase his dream - he will be graduating this year in jazz. I know. I am mad. But I would rather let him chase and live his life doing what he likes than to live out MY dreams :-).

I agree with you. Sibu will still be won by BN. That is for sure. Of course I hope PR will win but it is an almost impossible task because of many reasons.

BN has the machinery and record. PR has the hopes but not quite the ground support in East Malaysia unless there is a major paradigm shift. Sad but true.

Hey 32 is good if you had not been studying. Smart people are like that *winks*. Same with my son LOL!!!

Take care and thanks for the get well wishes!! I am slightly better now but if things don't improve, I will have to be admitted for observation.

Keep in touch and work hard!!!

Salam