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Tuesday, 3 May 2011

P193 - Santubong

N3 - Tanjung Datu
Adenan bin Satim (PBB-BN) = 4,218 votes (-327)
Nani bt Sahari (PAS) = 1,002 votes (+1,002)
Gilbert Asson Anak Kulong (Bebas) = 215 votes (-142)

Majority = 3,216 votes [2006 = 4,136 votes]
No. of voters = 7,883
Voter turnout (without spoilt votes) = 68.95%

Melanau 50.99%; Chinese 20.49%; Iban 19.68%; Bidayuh 8.58%; Others 0.26%

BN has their majority slightly reduced, probably due to some Chinese and Iban votes going to PAS, while PBB grabs the lion's share of the Melanau votes. PAS is the biggest gainer in gained votes (partly due to contesting in place of PKR), while BN is the biggest loser in lost votes, even though it is not by much.

N4 - Pantai Damai
Abdul Rahman bin Junaidi (PBB-BN) = 7,425 votes (+2,208)
Wan Zainal Abidin bin Wan Senusi (PKR) = 2,354 votes (-699)
Suhaini bin Selamat (Bebas) = 111 votes (+111)

Majority = 5,071 votes [2006 = 2,164 votes]
No. of voters = 13,761
Voter turnout (without spoilt votes) = 71.87%

Melanau 93.4%; Chinese 3.7%; Iban 1.9%; Bidayuh 1.07%; Others 0.45%; Orang Ulu 0.05%

BN has increased their majority by more than 2-fold. This is despite the reduction in Melanau voters from 2006, which consists of nearly 96%. It goes to show that majority of Melanau people are solidly behind PBB, which is headed by Taib Mahmud. This is maybe partly due to the fact that Baru Bian will be the next CM as announced by DAP, if PR had won the elections. It is also partly due to the fact that voters here are mostly happy with Abdul Rahman's performances as their representative. The biggest gainer is BN in this case, while the biggest loser has to be PKR due to some loss of support from the Melanau voters.

N5 - Demak Laut
Hazland bin Abg Hipni (PBB-BN) = 5,522 votes (+428)
Ali Hossen bin Abang (PKR) = 1,770 votes (+281)

Majority = 3,752 votes [2006 = 3,605 votes]
No. of voters = 10,420
Voter turnout (without spoilt votes) = 69.98%

Melanau 88.7%; Chinese 7.9%; Iban 3.6%; Others 1.1%; Orang Ulu 1%

Both BN and PKR gained in votes, although it is BN who has managed to increase their majority slightly from 2006, largely again to Melanau votes, which has been their main vote bank in Sarawak.

Just to sum it up, the Melanau voters are mostly happy with PBB being in power. They don't see any change being beneficial to them, despite the many allegations against Taib Mahmud for corruption and cronyism. PR can just forget this parliamentary seat next GE, as the total majority is 12,039 (3,216 + 5,071 + 3,752) in the 3 state seats above.

BN votes = 17,165; PKR votes = 4,124; PAS votes = 1,002; Bebas votes = 326
BN 17,165 - 5,126 Non-BN; Bebas = 326

Prediction for GE: BN to retain Santubong hands down...


Australia Guy said...

Thanks for the voting analysis. Very interesting outcome

Ahmad Syafiq said...

Basically to some extent, there are some people who would vote for different parties at state and federal level, say people would vote for BN at state level while for PR at federal level [in other words, the people would like a strong BN state government and a strong opposition in Parliament].

But the outcome above is remote in most places. I assume that most people would vote for the same party at both state and federal levels.