100-47 as the score stands in PR's favour. Just 12 seats away from a simple majority in Parliament, without help from Sabah and Sarawak. 2 more states to go, Kedah and Perlis. So, it's time to finish it off right here.
KEDAH
P4 - Langkawi
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 10,772
2008 majority - 4,970
GE13 prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P5 - Jerlun
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 2,142
2008 majority - 2,205
GE13 prediction: UMNO to retain the seat
P6 - Kubang Pasu
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 13,712
2008 majority - 7,060
GE13 prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P7 - Padang Terap
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 2,172(UMNO)
2008 majority - 369(PAS)
GE13 prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P8 - Pokok Sena
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 7,300(UMNO)
2008 majority - 5,731(PAS)
GE13 prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P9 - Alor Setar
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 14,515
2008 majority - 184
GE13 prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P10 - Kuala Kedah
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 10,214(UMNO)
2008 majority - 7,018(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P11 - Pendang
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 50
2008 majority - 4,073
GE13 prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P12 - Jerai
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 10,405(UMNO)
2008 majority - 2,299(PAS)
GE13 prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P13 - Sik
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 319(UMNO)
2008 majority - 481(PAS)
GE13 prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P14 - Merbok
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 15,445(UMNO)
2008 majority - 3,098(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P15 - Sungai Petani
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 17,502(UMNO)
2008 majority - 9,381(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P16 - Baling
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 4,229(UMNO)
2008 majority - 7,613(PAS)
GE13 prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P17 - Padang Serai
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 10,316(MCA)
2008 majority - 11,738(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P18 - Kulim Bandar Baharu
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 7,998(UMNO)
2008 majority - 5,583(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat
15 parliamentary seats up for grabs in Kedah. 4 of the seats are held by BN, while the rest falls to PR. Langkawi and Alor Setar may fall to PR come the next GE, thus enabling PR to form the government without help from East Malaysia. Now, I'll move on to my final destination, Perlis. Known as an UMNO fortress since I don't know when.
Current score in Kedah: PR 11-4 BN
Prediction score in Kedah: PR 13-2 BN
Total prediction score: PR 113-49 BN
PERLIS
P1 - Padang Besar
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 9,265
2008 majority - 5,348
GE13 prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P2 - Kangar
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 12,548
2008 majority - 13,671
GE13 prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P3 - Arau
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 3,243
2008 majority - 300
GE13 prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
There's only 3 parliamentary seats in Perlis as it's one of the smallest state in Malaysia. Currently, BN holds all 3 of the seats. This state involves a classic battle between UMNO and PAS, no other component parties from both sides had ever set foot in Perlis. Come GE13, Arau is a vulnerable seat which can fall to PAS, making it no more a BN fortress.
Current score in Perlis: BN 3-0 PR
Prediction score in Perlis: BN 2-1 PR
Total prediction score: PR 114-50 BN
So there it is. A comprehensive victory for PR based on my tsunami factor, without help from East Malaysia. However, mind you, these are all just predictions. Many current issues such as PKFZ, Altantuya, unity government, GST, etc... will influence the minds of the electorate. GE13 is going to be one hell of an election. However, one must take note that Najib plans to hold the next elections probably in 2011, as the economy may have recovered by then, boosting the feel good factor once again for voters towards BN. So, we'll see.
Friday, 18 December 2009
Voting patterns (Part 8)
After 3 months of stopping the analysis as the undi.info could not be accessed, the website has appeared once more. Thank God. Now I can finish off my elections analysis soon enough.
Now, where did I stop? Oh yes, I stopped in Perak, where by prediction, PR is thrashing BN with a score of 88-46. So, I still have 3 more states to venture in order to complete my predictions in Peninsula Malaysia.
Alrite then, after Perak, I will now venture into Penang. 13 parliamentary seats is at stake in this state.
P41 - Kepala Batas
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,122
2008 majority - 11,246
GE13 prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P42 - Tasek Gelugor
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 10,183
2008 majority - 4,547
GE13 prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
P43 - Bagan
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 3,622
2008 majority - 22,070
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P44 - Permatang Pauh
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 590
2008 majority - 13,398
2008 majority (by-election) - 15,671
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P45 - Bukit Mertajam
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 8,564
2008 majority - 5,832
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat
P46 - Batu Kawan
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 8,998(GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 9,485(DAP)
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat
P47 - Nibong Tebal
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 6,005(UMNO)
2008 majority - 3,087(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P48 - Bukit Bendera
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 10,717(GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 16,112(DAP)
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P49 - Tanjong
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 4,228
2008 majority - 18,489
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P50 - Jelutong
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 7,470(GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 16,246(DAP)
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P51 - Bukit Gelugor
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 1,261
2008 majority - 21,015
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P52 - Bayan Baru
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 18,851(MCA)
2008 majority - 11,029(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P53 - Balik Pulau
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 12,937(UMNO)
2008 majority - 708(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat
As it is, there are 13 parliamentary seats in Penang. Only 2 are held by BN, while the rest are gobbled up by PR. Almost status quo, come GE13, however, the Bukit Gelugor seat may fall, leaving BN with a solitary seat. However, Balik Pulau is also a razor thin seat, so I think it won't last for long. We'll see.
Current score in Penang: PR 11-2 BN
Prediction score in Penang: PR 12-1 BN
Total prediction score: PR 100 - 47 BN
Now, where did I stop? Oh yes, I stopped in Perak, where by prediction, PR is thrashing BN with a score of 88-46. So, I still have 3 more states to venture in order to complete my predictions in Peninsula Malaysia.
Alrite then, after Perak, I will now venture into Penang. 13 parliamentary seats is at stake in this state.
P41 - Kepala Batas
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,122
2008 majority - 11,246
GE13 prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P42 - Tasek Gelugor
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 10,183
2008 majority - 4,547
GE13 prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
P43 - Bagan
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 3,622
2008 majority - 22,070
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P44 - Permatang Pauh
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 590
2008 majority - 13,398
2008 majority (by-election) - 15,671
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P45 - Bukit Mertajam
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 8,564
2008 majority - 5,832
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat
P46 - Batu Kawan
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 8,998(GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 9,485(DAP)
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat
P47 - Nibong Tebal
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 6,005(UMNO)
2008 majority - 3,087(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P48 - Bukit Bendera
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 10,717(GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 16,112(DAP)
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P49 - Tanjong
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 4,228
2008 majority - 18,489
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P50 - Jelutong
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 7,470(GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 16,246(DAP)
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P51 - Bukit Gelugor
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 1,261
2008 majority - 21,015
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P52 - Bayan Baru
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 18,851(MCA)
2008 majority - 11,029(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P53 - Balik Pulau
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 12,937(UMNO)
2008 majority - 708(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat
As it is, there are 13 parliamentary seats in Penang. Only 2 are held by BN, while the rest are gobbled up by PR. Almost status quo, come GE13, however, the Bukit Gelugor seat may fall, leaving BN with a solitary seat. However, Balik Pulau is also a razor thin seat, so I think it won't last for long. We'll see.
Current score in Penang: PR 11-2 BN
Prediction score in Penang: PR 12-1 BN
Total prediction score: PR 100 - 47 BN
Wednesday, 16 December 2009
BN almost embarassed
As the opposition called for a bloc voting in Parliament, that is where they almost caught BN with their pants down during the Budget 2010 debate.
Final score: BN 64-63 PR
Well, that says it all. 74 BN MPs didn't vote on the budget (whether they don't like the budget, lazy to vote, or if they're dissatisfied with the budget, they are afraid to vote for the opposition) while 18 Pakatan MPs didn't vote.
Can you imagine the implications of a Budget Bill being rejected???
When a budget bill is rejected, it is certainly equals motion of no confidence. When there is no confidence in the budget, that means they have no confidence in the PM Najib. Once that happened, the Agong may have to appoint a new PM from the opposition (my choice would have been Nizar).
Lucky for BN, Nazri saved their asses with distress calls to Najib and co. Those last minute votes certainly saved them from defeat. However, that is something not to be proud of for the BN coalition. This certainly shows that complacency roots deeply in them.
Let this be a lesson to the missing MPs to not be absent when there is a very important vote such as the Budget Bill. Nice try Pakatan, but next time, please have all your MPs available so that we can catch BN with their pants down again for next year's Budget Bill.
So, a reminder to some of the Pakatan MPs such as Azmin Ali, Lim Guan Eng, Teresa Kok, Mahfuz Omar, Mujahid Yusof Rawa, Khalid Ibrahim, and the 12 others. Please be present next time, or the people would think you are simply absent from Parliament. Same goes to the 74 BN MPs who didn't turn up for voting when it mattered most. Never think that you are safe with the majority at hand.
And to Speaker Pandikar Amin, don't blame Pakatan for trying to catch BN with its pants down. I know you are a BN fella elected by your party in Parliament to be the main speaker. So, please bash your own BN members for not turning up for such an important vote. Besides, isn't this a parliamentary democracy?
Final score: BN 64-63 PR
Well, that says it all. 74 BN MPs didn't vote on the budget (whether they don't like the budget, lazy to vote, or if they're dissatisfied with the budget, they are afraid to vote for the opposition) while 18 Pakatan MPs didn't vote.
Can you imagine the implications of a Budget Bill being rejected???
When a budget bill is rejected, it is certainly equals motion of no confidence. When there is no confidence in the budget, that means they have no confidence in the PM Najib. Once that happened, the Agong may have to appoint a new PM from the opposition (my choice would have been Nizar).
Lucky for BN, Nazri saved their asses with distress calls to Najib and co. Those last minute votes certainly saved them from defeat. However, that is something not to be proud of for the BN coalition. This certainly shows that complacency roots deeply in them.
Let this be a lesson to the missing MPs to not be absent when there is a very important vote such as the Budget Bill. Nice try Pakatan, but next time, please have all your MPs available so that we can catch BN with their pants down again for next year's Budget Bill.
So, a reminder to some of the Pakatan MPs such as Azmin Ali, Lim Guan Eng, Teresa Kok, Mahfuz Omar, Mujahid Yusof Rawa, Khalid Ibrahim, and the 12 others. Please be present next time, or the people would think you are simply absent from Parliament. Same goes to the 74 BN MPs who didn't turn up for voting when it mattered most. Never think that you are safe with the majority at hand.
And to Speaker Pandikar Amin, don't blame Pakatan for trying to catch BN with its pants down. I know you are a BN fella elected by your party in Parliament to be the main speaker. So, please bash your own BN members for not turning up for such an important vote. Besides, isn't this a parliamentary democracy?
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