Voting patterns (Part 9)

100-47 as the score stands in PR's favour. Just 12 seats away from a simple majority in Parliament, without help from Sabah and Sarawak. 2 more states to go, Kedah and Perlis. So, it's time to finish it off right here.

KEDAH

P4 - Langkawi
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 10,772
2008 majority - 4,970
GE13 prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P5 - Jerlun
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 2,142
2008 majority - 2,205
GE13 prediction: UMNO to retain the seat

P6 - Kubang Pasu
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 13,712
2008 majority - 7,060
GE13 prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P7 - Padang Terap
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 2,172(UMNO)
2008 majority - 369(PAS)
GE13 prediction: PAS may retain the seat

P8 - Pokok Sena
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 7,300(UMNO)
2008 majority - 5,731(PAS)
GE13 prediction: PAS may retain the seat

P9 - Alor Setar
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 14,515
2008 majority - 184
GE13 prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P10 - Kuala Kedah
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 10,214(UMNO)
2008 majority - 7,018(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat

P11 - Pendang
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 50
2008 majority - 4,073
GE13 prediction: PAS may retain the seat

P12 - Jerai
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 10,405(UMNO)
2008 majority - 2,299(PAS)
GE13 prediction: PAS may retain the seat

P13 - Sik
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 319(UMNO)
2008 majority - 481(PAS)
GE13 prediction: PAS may retain the seat

P14 - Merbok
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 15,445(UMNO)
2008 majority - 3,098(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat

P15 - Sungai Petani
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 17,502(UMNO)
2008 majority - 9,381(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat

P16 - Baling
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 4,229(UMNO)
2008 majority - 7,613(PAS)
GE13 prediction: PAS may retain the seat

P17 - Padang Serai
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 10,316(MCA)
2008 majority - 11,738(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably

P18 - Kulim Bandar Baharu
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 7,998(UMNO)
2008 majority - 5,583(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat

15 parliamentary seats up for grabs in Kedah. 4 of the seats are held by BN, while the rest falls to PR. Langkawi and Alor Setar may fall to PR come the next GE, thus enabling PR to form the government without help from East Malaysia. Now, I'll move on to my final destination, Perlis. Known as an UMNO fortress since I don't know when.

Current score in Kedah: PR 11-4 BN
Prediction score in Kedah: PR 13-2 BN

Total prediction score: PR 113-49 BN

PERLIS

P1 - Padang Besar
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 9,265
2008 majority - 5,348
GE13 prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P2 - Kangar
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 12,548
2008 majority - 13,671
GE13 prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P3 - Arau
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 3,243
2008 majority - 300
GE13 prediction: PAS may pull off an upset

There's only 3 parliamentary seats in Perlis as it's one of the smallest state in Malaysia. Currently, BN holds all 3 of the seats. This state involves a classic battle between UMNO and PAS, no other component parties from both sides had ever set foot in Perlis. Come GE13, Arau is a vulnerable seat which can fall to PAS, making it no more a BN fortress.

Current score in Perlis: BN 3-0 PR
Prediction score in Perlis: BN 2-1 PR

Total prediction score: PR 114-50 BN

So there it is. A comprehensive victory for PR based on my tsunami factor, without help from East Malaysia. However, mind you, these are all just predictions. Many current issues such as PKFZ, Altantuya, unity government, GST, etc... will influence the minds of the electorate. GE13 is going to be one hell of an election. However, one must take note that Najib plans to hold the next elections probably in 2011, as the economy may have recovered by then, boosting the feel good factor once again for voters towards BN. So, we'll see.