Voting patterns (Part 8)

After 3 months of stopping the analysis as the undi.info could not be accessed, the website has appeared once more. Thank God. Now I can finish off my elections analysis soon enough.

Now, where did I stop? Oh yes, I stopped in Perak, where by prediction, PR is thrashing BN with a score of 88-46. So, I still have 3 more states to venture in order to complete my predictions in Peninsula Malaysia.

Alrite then, after Perak, I will now venture into Penang. 13 parliamentary seats is at stake in this state.

P41 - Kepala Batas
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,122
2008 majority - 11,246
GE13 prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P42 - Tasek Gelugor
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 10,183
2008 majority - 4,547
GE13 prediction: PAS may pull off an upset

P43 - Bagan
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 3,622
2008 majority - 22,070
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably

P44 - Permatang Pauh
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 590
2008 majority - 13,398
2008 majority (by-election) - 15,671
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably

P45 - Bukit Mertajam
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 8,564
2008 majority - 5,832
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat

P46 - Batu Kawan
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 8,998(GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 9,485(DAP)
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat

P47 - Nibong Tebal
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 6,005(UMNO)
2008 majority - 3,087(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat

P48 - Bukit Bendera
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 10,717(GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 16,112(DAP)
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably

P49 - Tanjong
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 4,228
2008 majority - 18,489
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably

P50 - Jelutong
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 7,470(GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 16,246(DAP)
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably

P51 - Bukit Gelugor
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 1,261
2008 majority - 21,015
GE13 prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably

P52 - Bayan Baru
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 18,851(MCA)
2008 majority - 11,029(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably

P53 - Balik Pulau
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 12,937(UMNO)
2008 majority - 708(PKR)
GE13 prediction: PKR may retain the seat

As it is, there are 13 parliamentary seats in Penang. Only 2 are held by BN, while the rest are gobbled up by PR. Almost status quo, come GE13, however, the Bukit Gelugor seat may fall, leaving BN with a solitary seat. However, Balik Pulau is also a razor thin seat, so I think it won't last for long. We'll see.

Current score in Penang: PR 11-2 BN
Prediction score in Penang: PR 12-1 BN

Total prediction score: PR 100 - 47 BN