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Saturday, 6 April 2013

GE 13 prediction (Part 4) - updated with actual

Negeri Sembilan:
P126 (Jelebu) - UMNO to win by 10,000 votes
P127 (Jempol) - UMNO to win by 10,500 votes
P128 (Seremban) - DAP to win by 500 votes
P129 (Kuala Pilah) - UMNO to win by 8,000 votes
P130 (Rasah) - DAP to win by 7,500 votes
P131 (Rembau) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes
P132 (Teluk Kemang) - MIC to win by 5,000 votes (PKR won)
P133 (Tampin) - UMNO to win by 12,000 votes

BN 6-2 PR

I don't expect PR to make further inroads into Negeri Sembilan like they did in 2008, especially when they won 15 out of the 36 state seats at the time, which was a real surprise. However, if we were to recall the Bagan Pinang by-election, Isa Samad got back into the fold very convincingly, which shows his popularity in Negeri Sembilan. Hence, my deduction is that PR won't get that close again, unless the voters prove it otherwise.

Actual score:
BN 5-3 PR

Malacca:
P134 (Masjid Tanah) - UMNO to win by 9,000 votes
P135 (Alor Gajah) - MCA to win by 7,500 votes
P136 (Tangga Batu) - UMNO to win by 15,000 votes
P137 (Bukit Katil) - PKR to win by 2,000 votes
P138 (Kota Melaka) - DAP to win by 5,000 votes
P139 (Jasin) - UMNO to win by 8,000 votes

BN 4-2 PR

It's mostly status quo except for Bukit Katil, which I consider a semi-urban area and the tendency for these areas to strongly support PR. If PKR fields the same candidate, he may have a shot. There may be further progress by PR into BN's fortress, but it would be insufficient for them to dislodge the current state government led by Ali Rustam.

Actual score:
BN 4-2 PR

Johor:
P140 (Segamat) - DAP to win by 1,000 votes (MIC won)
P141 (Sekijang) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes
P142 (Labis) - DAP to win by 500 votes (MCA won)
P143 (Pagoh) - UMNO to win by 9,000 votes
P144 (Ledang) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes
P145 (Bakri) - DAP to win by 1,000 votes
P146 (Muar) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes
P147 (Parit Sulong) - UMNO to win by 12,000 votes
P148 (Ayer Hitam) - MCA to win by 10,000 votes
P149 (Sri Gading) - UMNO to win by 6,500 votes
P150 (Batu Pahat) - UMNO to win by 8,500 votes (PKR won)
P151 (Simpang Renggam) - GERAKAN to win by 3,000 votes
P152 (Kluang) - DAP to win by 2,000 votes
P153 (Sembrong) - UMNO to win by 7,000 votes
P154 (Mersing) - UMNO to win by 13,000 votes
P155 (Tenggara) - UMNO to win by 14,000 votes
P156 (Kota Tinggi) - UMNO to win by 16,000 votes
P157 (Pengerang) - UMNO to win by 11,000 votes (if they have an opponent) =3
P158 (Tebrau) - MCA to win by 5,000 votes
P159 (Pasir Gudang) - UMNO to win by 15,000 votes
P160 (Johor Bahru) - UMNO to win by 20,000 votes
P161 (Pulai) - UMNO to win by 18,000 votes
P162 (Gelang Patah) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes (DAP won)
P163 (Kulai) - DAP to win by 500 votes
P164 (Pontian) - UMNO to win by 12,000 votes
P165 (Tanjung Piai) - MCA to win by 4,500 votes

BN 21-5 PR

We all know about PR's charge into Johor for this GE. If there is to be a change in federal government, what better place can they start with? The state where UMNO was born. Despite their valiant efforts, I don't think they can win more than 5 parliament seats. But what we can observe is the majority slashes in most of the seats this coming GE as compared to 2008. It won't be enough though.

Actual score:
BN 21-5 PR

Total score for 3 states above:
BN 31 - 9 PR (2013)
BN 35 - 5 PR (2008)

Total score for Peninsula Malaysia:
BN 96 - 69 PR (2013)
BN 85 - 80 PR (2008)

As you can see dear readers, this is how pivotal Sabah and Sarawak is in determining the next federal government to be formed. 57 seats from East Malaysia, and most of the seats are considered fixed deposits for BN. Based on my prediction, PR needs at least 5 seats from the 57 to deny them the all-important 2/3 majority in Parliament. Or... to get to the magic 112 seats to form a simple majority, they need a whopping 43 seats from East Malaysia, which is very, very unlikely. Their main strength that must be utilised is right here in Peninsula Malaysia. To form the federal government, they really need to perform in Peninsula Malaysia (at least to win 100 seats so that it would be attainable to get at least 12 seats from East Malaysia). Otherwise, they can kiss their hopes goodbye and only hope to deny BN their 2/3 majority, whom I have to admit is looking solid under Najib's leadership.

Nonetheless, I'll be doing my part to vote in this coming GE in order to help my selected political divide to be the next federal government. Overseas students, if you're reading this, please fly back and vote for your future. It will shape our country's policies for the next 5 years. If change doesn't come now, it won't happen in the next 50 years. Make it count. Tell your family, relatives, friends, everyone you know. Play a part, you can influence them.

Actual score for 3 states above:
BN 30 - 10 PR

Total score for Peninsula Malaysia:
BN 85 - 80 PR

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

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