GE 13 prediction (Part 2) - updated with actual

Penang:
P41 (Kepala Batas) - UMNO to win by 6,000 votes
P42 (Tasek Gelugor) - UMNO to win by 3,500 votes
P43 (Bagan) - DAP to win by 15,000 votes
P44 (Permatang Pauh) - PKR to win by 7,000 votes
P45 (Bukit Mertajam) - DAP to win by 10,500 votes
P46 (Batu Kawan) - DAP to win by 1,000 votes
P47 (Nibong Tebal) - UMNO to win by 3,500 votes (PKR won)
P48 (Bukit Bendera) - DAP to win by 4,500 votes
P49 (Tanjong) - DAP to win by 8,000 votes
P50 (Jelutong) - DAP to win by 3,000 votes
P51 (Bukit Gelugor) - DAP to win by 10,000 votes
P52 (Bayan Baru) - PKR to win by 1,500 votes
P53 (Balik Pulau) - UMNO to win by 5,500 votes

BN 4-9 PR

Since the huge political tsunami landed in Penang back in 2008, the state government has done quite well overall, majority of the people would be happy to continue with them. However, BN would regain a few of the parliament seats that they lost which would not affect PR's position in Penang significantly. PR may remain as state government with a reduced majority due to Penang being a Malay-majority state a few years ago and UMNO would be looking to capitalise on their fear-mongering tactics among the Penang Malays to ensure that they get the lion's share of the Malay votes.

Actual score:
BN 3-10 PR

Perak:
P54 (Grik) - PPP to win by 2,000 votes
P55 (Lenggong) - UMNO to win by 4,500 votes
P56 (Larut) - UMNO to win by 2,500 votes
P57 (Parit Buntar) - PAS to win by 2,000 votes
P58 (Bagan Serai) - UMNO to win by 2,500 votes
P59 (Bukit Gantang) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes
P60 (Taiping) - DAP to win by 4,500 votes
P61 (Padang Rengas) - UMNO to win by 1,000 votes
P62 (Sungai Siput) - PSM to win by 1,500 votes
P63 (Tambun) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes
P64 (Ipoh Timor) - DAP to win by 10,000 votes
P65 (Ipoh Barat) - DAP to win by 6,000 votes
P66 (Batu Gajah) - DAP to win by 17,000 votes
P67 (Kuala Kangsar) - PAS to win by 500 votes (UMNO won)
P68 (Beruas) - DAP to win by 2,500 votes
P69 (Parit) - UMNO to win by 1,500 votes
P70 (Kampar) - DAP to win by 1,000 votes
P71 (Gopeng) - PKR to win by 1,000 votes
P72 (Tapah) - MIC to win by 3,000 votes
P73 (Pasir Salak) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes
P74 (Lumut) - MCA to win by 3,500 votes (PKR won)
P75 (Bagan Datok) - UMNO to win by 1,000 votes
P76 (Telok Intan) - GERAKAN to win by 500 votes (DAP won)
P77 (Tanjong Malim) - MCA to win by 8,000 votes

BN 13-11 PR

The delicate issue would be whether the people of Perak are still angry with the change in state government that happened back in 2009 due to frogs. Will Nizar be MB again if PR manages to win back the state? That will be pretty interesting to see. Parliament level-wise, I predicted a status quo for Perak as compared to 2008 whereby BN also won 13 seats. In terms of state government, I think BN would nick it, justifying their takeover back in 2009 despite the people's protests at the time.

Actual score:
BN 12-12 PR

Total score for 2 states above:
BN 17 - 20 PR (2013)
BN 15 - 22 PR (2008)

Total score after 77 seats:
BN 39 - 38 PR (2013)
BN 31 - 45 PR (2008)

Tight race yes? I've put up comparisons so that you know how the movement is predicted to be for this coming GE. As you can see, it would be 16 seat swing to BN (8 gained by BN, 8 lost by PR) after Perak. In my Part 3, I would cover Pahang, Selangor and KL. Those would be interesting battlegrounds that would shape the urban and rural votes.

Actual score for 2 states above:
BN 15 - 22 PR

Actual total score after 77 seats:
BN 37 - 40 PR