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Tuesday, 30 April 2013

Why Johor? (Part 2) - updated with actual

P143 - Pagoh

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 12,581 votes

State seats (2008):
N7 - Bukit Serampang
UMNO won by a majority of 7,250 votes.

Malay 70%; Chinese 26%; Indian 2%
Voters (2013): 21,480
Voters (2008): 18,880

N8 - Jorak
UMNO won by a majority of 4,604 votes.

Malay 59%; Chinese 35%; Indian 5%
Voters (2013): 25,400
Voters (2008): 21,162

727 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level).

My prediction:
Bukit Serampang would still be retained by UMNO, but with a reduced majority [6,000 votes]
Jorak would still be retained by UMNO, but with a reduced majority [3,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I may assume that around 1,000 people are going to do split-voting again. UMNO to win by 10,000 votes because it's a prospective PM if Najib fails to gain 2/3 majority in Parliament.

Actual results:
(P143) Pagoh - UMNO won by a majority of 12,842 votes
Bukit Serampang - UMNO won by a majority of 7,845 votes
Jorak - UMNO won by a majority of 3,726 votes


P144 - Ledang

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 7,617 votes

State seats (2008):
N9 - Gambir
MIC won by a majority of 2,463 votes.

Malay 55%; Chinese 40%; Indian 4%
Voters (2013): 21,427
Voters (2008): 18,724

N10 - Tangkak
MCA won by a majority of 295 votes.

Chinese 51%; Malay 38%; Indian 10%
Voters (2013): 23,434
Voters (2008): 19,198

N11 - Serom
UMNO won by a majority of 4,971 votes.

Malay 66%; Chinese 33%; Indian 1%
Voters (2013): 24,592
Voters (2008): 20,579

Only 112 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliamant level). A can-be-ignored factor when determining power at federal level.

My prediction:
Gambir would still be retained by MIC by a reduced majority [1,200 votes]
Tangkak would see a probable DAP victory by a comfortable margin [1,500 votes]
Serom would still be retained by UMNO, but with a reduced majority [4,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? UMNO to win by 3,500 votes due to some expected changes at state level and split-voting is a negligible factor.

Actual results:
(P144) Ledang - UMNO won by a majority of 1,967 votes
Gambir - MIC won by a majority of 310 votes
Tangkak - DAP won by a majority of 1,537 votes
Serom - UMNO won by a majority of 2,264 votes


P145 - Bakri

Parliament (2008): DAP won by a majority of 722 votes

State seats (2008):
N12 - Bentayan
DAP won by a majority of 2,796 votes.

Chinese 73%; Malay 25%; Indian 2%
Voters (2013): 23,490
Voters (2008): 21,233

N13 - Sungai Abong
PAS won by a majority of 1,550 votes.

Malay 51%; Chinese 45%; Indian 3%
Voters (2013): 28,304
Voters (2008): 21,592

N14 - Bukit Naning
UMNO won by a majority of 2,895 votes.

Malay 59%; Chinese 38%; Others 2%
Voters (2013): 15,535
Voters (2008): 13,547

729 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). As we can see in our analysis so far, split-voting can go 2 ways.

My prediction:
Bentayan would be retained by DAP with a bigger majority [4,000 votes]
Sungai Abong would be retained by PAS with a bigger majority [2,500 votes]
Bukit Naning would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? DAP to win by 4,000 votes, assuming about 500 people goes split-voting in the same pattern observed.

Actual results:
(P145) Bakri - DAP won by a majority of 5,067 votes
Bentayan - DAP won by a majority of 6,847 votes
Sungai Abong - PAS won by a majority of 3,813 votes
Bukit Naning - UMNO won by a majority of 1,455 votes


Overall analysis (Part 2):
We have the in-waiting Prime Minister (Muhyiddin Yassin) contesting in his usual Pagoh seat, which shouldn't pose too much of a problem in retaining the seat, though PAS would eat a bit further into his majority. Ledang may be considered a hot seat due to the large swing between 2004 and 2008, and the swing continues to be in favour of PR, though Hamim Samuri (UMNO) may just have enough in the bag to retain Ledang. Bakri on the other hand is fast becoming a potential fortress for DAP, thanks to Dr Sheikh Ibrahim (PAS) in establishing his strong presence in Sungai Abong, which goes a long way in helping DAP to retain Bakri come May 5.

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?
Parliament: BN 3-3 PR
State: BN 9-5 PR

It may be hot at federal level as we're all tied up at the moment. At this point in 2008, PR only won their solitary parliament seat in Bakri and no other Johor seats to back it up. This is already looking better on paper, and I've only covered 6 seats so far. Expect more surprises coming along gradually.

Part 3 would be done soon. Stay tuned.

Actual results:
Parliament: BN 5-1 PR
State: BN 9-5 PR