Why Johor? (Part 1) - updated with actual

P140 - Segamat

Parliament (2008): MIC won by a majority of 2,991 votes

State seats (2008):
N1 - Buloh Kasap
UMNO won by a majority of 4,466 votes.

Malay 55%; Chinese 32%; Indian 12%
Voters (2013): 18,816
Voters (2008): 15,424

N2 - Jementah
MCA won by a majority of 1,814 votes.

Chinese 54%; Malay 36%; Indian 9%
Voters (2013): 28,299
Voters (2008): 25,284

3,289 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliament level).

My prediction:
Buloh Kasap would still be retained by UMNO, but with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]
Jemetah would see a probable DAP victory, but not by much [500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I may assume that around 3,000 people are going to do split-voting again. PKR to win by 1,000 votes then.

Actual results:
(P140) Segamat - MIC won by a majority of 1,217 votes
Buloh Kasap - UMNO won by a majority of 3,370 votes
Jementah - DAP won by a majority of 2,196 votes


P141 - Sekijang

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 9,867 votes

State seats (2008):
N3 - Pemanis
GERAKAN won by a majority of 5,135 votes.

Malay 56%; Chinese 39%; Indian 3%
Voters (2013): 22,658
Voters (2008): 19,355

N4 - Kemelah
UMNO won by a majority of 5,435 votes.

Malay 55%; Chinese 39%; Indian 6%
Voters (2013): 20,471
Voters (2008): 15,783

Only 703 people opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliament level)

My prediction:
Pemanis would be retained by GERAKAN, but with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]
Kemelah would be retained by UMNO, but also with a reduced majority [3,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? Not much split-voting observed here, should be a comfortable 6,000 votes victory for UMNO.

Actual results:
(P141) Sekijang - UMNO won by a majority of 3,007 votes
Pemanis - GERAKAN won by a majority of 1,329 votes
Kemelah - UMNO won by a majority of 2,260 votes


P142 - Labis

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 4,094 votes

State seats (2008):
N5 - Tenang
UMNO won by a majority of 2,492 votes.
However, the recent by-election (2011) saw UMNO won by 3,707 votes.

Malay 49%; Chinese 38%; Indian 11%
Voters (2013): 16,974
Voters (2008): 14,511

N6 - Bekok
MCA won by a majority of 1,944 votes.

Chinese 54%; Malay 26%; Indian 18%
Voters (2013): 20,813
Voters (2008): 18,957

Only 342 people opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliament level). Hence, it's not a huge factor here.

My prediction:
Tenang would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,200 votes]
Bekok would see a probable DAP victory by a small margin [600 votes]

Parliament-wise? I may see a potential shock for DAP to win in Chua's fortress, maybe by 500 votes? I have a feeling more voters would go for split-voting rather than the mere 342 people last time around.

Actual results:
(P142) Labis - MCA won by a majority of 353 votes
Tenang - UMNO won by a majority of 1,586 votes
Bekok - DAP won by a majority of 1,401 votes


Overall analysis (Part 1):
We have some big guns contesting from both sides (Chua Jui Meng for PKR in Segamat & Chua Tee Yong for MCA in Labis). I consider Segamat and Labis hot seats because those are potential opportunities for PR in order to march into Putrajaya. We all know a lot of Johoreans missed the boat in 2008, they didn't see it coming up north. Some are wanting to put it right come May 5, which is only a few days away. Chua Soi Lek remains the only MCA president in history to not contest in the elections. This can be seen as cowardice by majority of the Chinese voters in Labis, and may vote accordingly to kick out his son, just enough to open a door to a narrow DAP victory. P141 is a black seat for UMNO, literally in the bag.

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?
Parliament: BN 1-2 PR
State: BN 4-2 PR

PR has a slight edge at the federal level, but surely lagging behind at the state level. Split-voting is definitely a factor here, it's quite a disease among some voters which continues to be prevalent.

Part 2 comes up next after this.

Actual results:
Parliament: BN 3-0 PR
State: BN 4-2 PR