Why Johor? (Part 6) - updated with actual

P155 - Tenggara

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 14,049 votes

State seats (2008):

N34 - Panti

UMNO won by a majority of 7,503 votes

Malay 86%; Chinese 7%; Indian 4%

Voters (2013): 17,395

Voters (2008): 14,448

N35 - Pasir Raja

UMNO won by a majority of 6,800 votes.

Malay 64%; Chinese 25%; Indian 9%

Voters (2013): 44,456

Voters (2008): 35,980

Only 254 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at parliament level, voting for BN at state level). A non-factor altogether.

My prediction:

Panti would be retained by UMNO with an increased majority [8,000 votes]

Pasir Raja would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I don't see UMNO losing this one. This one is a matter of how much the majority will be. I expect it'll be around 13,500 votes.

Actual results:

(P155) Tenggara - UMNO won by a majority of 17,196 votes

Panti - UMNO won by a majority of 10,270 votes

Pasir Raja - UMNO won by a majority of 6,666 votes

P156 - Kota Tinggi

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 18,961 votes

State seats (2008):

N36 - Sedili

UMNO won by a majority of 12,758 votes.

Malay 95%; Chinese 2%; Others 2%

Voters (2013): 24,750

Voters (2008): 19,190

N37 - Johor Lama

UMNO won by a majority of 6,305 votes.

Malay 72%; Chinese 23%; Indian 4%

Voters (2013): 17,211

Voters (2008): 15,000

Only 102 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliamant level). A non-factor in the bigger scheme of things.

My prediction:

Sedili to be comfortably retained by UMNO with a slight reduction in majority [12,500 votes]

Johor Lama would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [4,800 votes]

Parliament-wise? PR is just sending its candidates to be slaughtered for Kota Tinggi, although Syed Hamid Albar is no longer contesting [17,500 votes].

Actual results:

(P156) Kota Tinggi - UMNO won by a majority of 24,574 votes

Sedili - UMNO won by a majority of 18,217 votes

Johor Lama - UMNO won by a majority of 7,022 votes

P157 - Pengerang

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a walkover.

State seats (2008):

N38 - Penawar

UMNO won by a majority of 10,102 votes.

Malay 97%; Others 2%; Indian 1%

Voters (2013): 19,914

Voters (2008): 16,498

N39 - Tanjong Surat

UMNO won by a majority of 9,208 votes.

Malay 77%; Chinese 21%; Others 2%

Voters (2013): 18,157

Voters (2008): 16,504

No split voting is applicable here as Azalina Othman was given a walkover for Pengerang back in 2008. As you can see from the state seats above, this is truly an UMNO fortress, and tomorrow will be no different.

My prediction:

Penawar to be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [10,000 votes]

Tanjong Surat to be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [8,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? I can't see anything other than UMNO all over this seat. Expect a majority of about 18,000 votes.

Actual results:

(P157) Pengerang - UMNO won by a majority of 22,508 votes

Penawar - UMNO won by a majority of 12,818 votes

Tanjong Surat - UMNO won by a majority of 9,035 votes

Overall analysis (Part 6):

The 3 parliament seats above plus the 6 state seats has defined "impossible" to a new level for PR. This is absolutely fortress BN. Anything other than a clean sweep for BN would be a major surprise.  

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?

Parliament: BN 13-5 PR

State: BN 28-11 PR

At this juncture, BN is comfortably extending their lead at both parliament level and state level. All that is needed is 29 state seats to form a simple majority and form the state government. BN only needs 1 more from the remaining 17 state seats that I'm going to cover, and surely they will win more than that. It will take a very long time for Johor to be free from BN dominance at the rate it is currently going.

I'll try to cover the remaining 8 parliament seats in the last 2 parts. It seems that PR's aim to obtain 10 parliament seats are getting slimmer and slimmer as we are running out of seats.

Actual results:

Parliament: BN 15-3 PR

State: BN 29-10 PR

Why Johor? (Part 5) - updated with actual

P152 - Kluang

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 3,781 votes

State seats (2008):

N28 - Mengkibol

DAP won by a majority of 1,281 votes

Chinese 58%; Malay 27%; Indian 14%

Voters (2013): 42,458

Voters (2008): 35,253

N29 - Mahkota

UMNO won by a majority of 8,480 votes.

Malay 50%; Chinese 41%; Indian 6%

Voters (2013): 44,456

Voters (2008): 35,980

3,418 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at parliament level, voting for BN at state level). This can play a huge role in determining who wins at parliament level.

My prediction:

Mengkibol would be retained by DAP with a slight increase in majority [2,000 votes]

Mahkota would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? I think Liew Chin Tong was brave enough to leave the comforts of Bukit Bendera in Penang to help with the charge into Johor. Not to mention that he is up against his former lecturer. It will be rewarded with a narrow victory [400 votes].

Actual results:

(P152) Kluang - DAP won by a majority of 7,359 votes

Mengkibol - DAP won by a majority of 10,001 votes

Mahkota - UMNO won by a majority of 1,108 votes

P153 - Sembrong

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 11,570 votes

State seats (2008):

N30 - Paloh

MCA won by a majority of 2,794 votes.

Chinese 44%; Malay 37%; Indian 17%

Voters (2013): 18,274

Voters (2008): 16,084

N31 - Kahang

MIC won by a majority of 5,324 votes.

Malay 74%; Chinese 21%; Others 3%

Voters (2013): 23,407

Voters (2008): 17,097

A whopping 3,452 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). Seems Hishamuddin Hussein (Minister of Home Affairs), despite all his antics in the past, is still popular in his constituency. If he were to contest in the urban areas, surely he'll lose.

My prediction:

Paloh would fall to DAP by a slim margin [300 votes]

Kahang would be retained by MIC with a reduced majority [3,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? Hishamuddin would still be around in Parliament, though he would see his majority being slashed to about 6,500 votes.

Actual results:

(P153) Sembrong - UMNO won by a majority of 10,631 votes

Paloh - MCA won by a majority of 103 votes

Kahang - MIC won by a majority of 7,801 votes

P154 - Mersing

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 13,736 votes

State seats (2008):

N32 - Endau

UMNO won by a majority of 3,527 votes.

Malay 76%; Chinese 19%; Others 4%

Voters (2013): unknown

Voters (2008): 18,244

N33 - Tenggaroh

MIC won by a majority of 8,233 votes.

Malay 80%; Chinese 13%; Others 5%

Voters (2013): 25,499

Voters (2008): 20,176

About 1,976 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). This is a typical UMNO fortress. Such is the confidence that they put an MIC candidate in a very Malay-centric seat, they can still come out comfortable victors.

My prediction:

Endau to be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [3,000 votes]

Tenggaroh to be retained by MIC with a comfortable majority [8,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? I can't see anything other than UMNO all over this seat. Expect a majority of about 13,000 votes. People won't even notice that the majority is expected to drop only slightly.

Actual results:

(P154) Mersing - UMNO won by a majority of 15,747 votes

Endau - UMNO won by a majority of 3,110 votes

Tenggaroh - MIC won by a majority of 13,014 votes

Overall analysis (Part 5):

PR stands a good chance in Kluang through its main strategist, as the tide of change is much alive in Kluang. However, PR still has to be wary of Ng Lam Hua's influence in Kluang at state level (considering he was sacked by DAP when he was initially chosen to contest the seats). Meanwhile, Sembrong and Mersing are 2 typical UMNO fortresses whereby the Malays are just unmoved by what PR throws in against the UMNO candidates.  

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?

Parliament: BN 10-5 PR

State: BN 22-11 PR

BN's lead over PR at this juncture is quite mathematical, if you see what I mean. Whatever PR has, BN doubles it.

Part 6 coming soon, although I have heavy doubts on whether I would be able to finish my Johor analysis by tonight. It's a lot to cover I can tell you that. Anyway, to all the readers unknown to me, I give you my thanks in advance. Happy voting!

Actual results:

Parliament: BN 12-3 PR

State: BN 23-10 PR

Why Johor? (Part 4) - updated with actual

P149 - Sri Gading

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 10,874 votes

State seats (2008):

N21 - Parit Yaani

MCA won by a majority of 3,857 votes.

Malay 54%; Chinese 43%; Others 2%

Voters (2013): 24,668

Voters (2008): 19,545

N22 - Parit Raja

UMNO won by a majority of 5,827 votes.

Malay 73%; Chinese 22%; Others 3%

Voters (2013): 20,253

Voters (2008): 17,300

1,190 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). Not a huge factor considering the large majority UMNO currently holds.

My prediction:

Parit Yaani would be retained by MCA with a reduced majority [2,000 votes]

Parit Raja would be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [5,300 votes]

Parliament-wise? We can't see anything past UMNO here. This is another typical UMNO fortress for which PR are sending their candidates to be slaughtered, though not totally. They may have some fight to reduce the majority, but not my much. Expect a majority of 9,000 votes.

Actual results:

(P149) Sri Gading - UMNO won by a majority of 5,761 votes

Parit Yaani - PAS won by a majority of 1,188 votes

Parit Raja - UMNO won by a majority of 3,956 votes

P150 - Batu Pahat

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 12,968 votes

State seats (2008):

N23 - Penggaram

MCA won by a majority of 575 votes.

Chinese 61%; Malay 35%; Indian 2%

Voters (2013): 45,259

Voters (2008): 34,519

N24 - Senggarang

UMNO won by a majority of 3,028 votes.

Malay 60%; Chinese 37%; Others 2%

Voters (2013): 24,090

Voters (2008): 19,799

N25 - Rengit

UMNO won by a majority of 5,279 votes.

Malay 79%; Chinese 18%; Others 2%

Voters (2013): 19,112

Voters (2008): 15,751

A whopping 4,086 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). Although the 12,968 majority that UMNO enjoys at the moment looks comfortable, trust me, it was a huge swing between 2004 and 2008. It doesn't look safe as first thought. Expect PKR to give Puad Zarkashi (Deputy Education Minister) a run for his money.

My prediction:

Penggaram would fall to DAP by a comfortable majority [2,500 votes]

Senggarang would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [1,500 votes]

Rengit would be comfortably retained by UMNO by about the same majority due to the popularity of the UMNO candidate [5,300 votes]

Parliament-wise? Puad Zarkashi may just survive the Chinese vote backlash through the bulk of the Malay votes. I expect a majority of about 7,300 votes, as I think there will be a lower level of split-voting this time around.

Actual results:

(P150) Batu Pahat - PKR won by a majority of 1,732 votes

Penggaram - DAP won by a majority of 10,051 votes

Senggarang - UMNO won by a majority of 2,083 votes

Rengit - UMNO won by a majority of 5,492 votes

P151 - Simpang Renggam

Parliament (2008): GERAKAN won by a majority of 7,853 votes

State seats (2008):

N26 - Machap

UMNO won by a majority of 4,178 votes.

Malay 60%; Chinese 35%; Indian 5%

Voters (2013): unknown

Voters (2008): 18,244

N27 - Layang-Layang

UMNO won by a majority of 2,442 votes.

Malay 49%; Chinese 35%; Indians 15%

Voters (2013): 17,950

Voters (2008): 16,615

About 1,233 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). GERAKAN was wiped out in Penang back in 2008, hence Johor provided their last lungs to remain relevant in BN politics, particularly this seat.

My prediction:

Macap to be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [4,000 votes]

Layang-Layang to be retained by UMNO by a slim margin [1,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? GERAKAN would still survive with a seat after polling tomorrow, due to it contesting in a Malay-majority seat, but will suffer a slight decrease in majority [6,000 votes].

Actual results:

(P151) Simpang Renggam - GERAKAN won by a majority of 5,706 votes

Machap - UMNO won by a majority of 3,902 votes

Layang-Layang - UMNO won by a majority of 2,518 votes

Overall analysis (Part 4):

In this case, there are no winnable seats for PR except for Penggaram at state level. This is a hard part of Johor for PR, hence they have to maximise their resources where they have a high chance of winning. Definitely a low chance of winning any of the parliament seats mentioned above.

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?

Parliament: BN 8-4 PR

State: BN 18-9 PR

This shows a real gap in support between BN and PR in Johor. It's starting to show why Johor is such a BN fortress ever since independence, furthermore it is UMNO's birthplace.

Part 5 coming right up!

Actual results:

Parliament: BN 10-2 PR

State: BN 18-9 PR