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Saturday, 4 May 2013

Why Johor? (Part 6) - updated with actual

P155 - Tenggara

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 14,049 votes

State seats (2008):
N34 - Panti
UMNO won by a majority of 7,503 votes

Malay 86%; Chinese 7%; Indian 4%
Voters (2013): 17,395
Voters (2008): 14,448

N35 - Pasir Raja
UMNO won by a majority of 6,800 votes.

Malay 64%; Chinese 25%; Indian 9%
Voters (2013): 44,456
Voters (2008): 35,980

Only 254 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at parliament level, voting for BN at state level). A non-factor altogether.

My prediction:
Panti would be retained by UMNO with an increased majority [8,000 votes]
Pasir Raja would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I don't see UMNO losing this one. This one is a matter of how much the majority will be. I expect it'll be around 13,500 votes.

Actual results:
(P155) Tenggara - UMNO won by a majority of 17,196 votes
Panti - UMNO won by a majority of 10,270 votes
Pasir Raja - UMNO won by a majority of 6,666 votes


P156 - Kota Tinggi

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 18,961 votes

State seats (2008):
N36 - Sedili
UMNO won by a majority of 12,758 votes.

Malay 95%; Chinese 2%; Others 2%
Voters (2013): 24,750
Voters (2008): 19,190

N37 - Johor Lama
UMNO won by a majority of 6,305 votes.

Malay 72%; Chinese 23%; Indian 4%
Voters (2013): 17,211
Voters (2008): 15,000

Only 102 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliamant level). A non-factor in the bigger scheme of things.

My prediction:
Sedili to be comfortably retained by UMNO with a slight reduction in majority [12,500 votes]
Johor Lama would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [4,800 votes]

Parliament-wise? PR is just sending its candidates to be slaughtered for Kota Tinggi, although Syed Hamid Albar is no longer contesting [17,500 votes].

Actual results:
(P156) Kota Tinggi - UMNO won by a majority of 24,574 votes
Sedili - UMNO won by a majority of 18,217 votes
Johor Lama - UMNO won by a majority of 7,022 votes


P157 - Pengerang

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a walkover.

State seats (2008):
N38 - Penawar
UMNO won by a majority of 10,102 votes.

Malay 97%; Others 2%; Indian 1%
Voters (2013): 19,914
Voters (2008): 16,498

N39 - Tanjong Surat
UMNO won by a majority of 9,208 votes.

Malay 77%; Chinese 21%; Others 2%
Voters (2013): 18,157
Voters (2008): 16,504

No split voting is applicable here as Azalina Othman was given a walkover for Pengerang back in 2008. As you can see from the state seats above, this is truly an UMNO fortress, and tomorrow will be no different.

My prediction:
Penawar to be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [10,000 votes]
Tanjong Surat to be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [8,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? I can't see anything other than UMNO all over this seat. Expect a majority of about 18,000 votes.

Actual results:
(P157) Pengerang - UMNO won by a majority of 22,508 votes
Penawar - UMNO won by a majority of 12,818 votes
Tanjong Surat - UMNO won by a majority of 9,035 votes


Overall analysis (Part 6):
The 3 parliament seats above plus the 6 state seats has defined "impossible" to a new level for PR. This is absolutely fortress BN. Anything other than a clean sweep for BN would be a major surprise.  

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?
Parliament: BN 13-5 PR
State: BN 28-11 PR

At this juncture, BN is comfortably extending their lead at both parliament level and state level. All that is needed is 29 state seats to form a simple majority and form the state government. BN only needs 1 more from the remaining 17 state seats that I'm going to cover, and surely they will win more than that. It will take a very long time for Johor to be free from BN dominance at the rate it is currently going.

I'll try to cover the remaining 8 parliament seats in the last 2 parts. It seems that PR's aim to obtain 10 parliament seats are getting slimmer and slimmer as we are running out of seats.

Actual results:
Parliament: BN 15-3 PR
State: BN 29-10 PR