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Saturday, 4 May 2013

Why Johor? (Part 5) - updated with actual

P152 - Kluang

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 3,781 votes

State seats (2008):
N28 - Mengkibol
DAP won by a majority of 1,281 votes

Chinese 58%; Malay 27%; Indian 14%
Voters (2013): 42,458
Voters (2008): 35,253

N29 - Mahkota
UMNO won by a majority of 8,480 votes.

Malay 50%; Chinese 41%; Indian 6%
Voters (2013): 44,456
Voters (2008): 35,980

3,418 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at parliament level, voting for BN at state level). This can play a huge role in determining who wins at parliament level.

My prediction:
Mengkibol would be retained by DAP with a slight increase in majority [2,000 votes]
Mahkota would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? I think Liew Chin Tong was brave enough to leave the comforts of Bukit Bendera in Penang to help with the charge into Johor. Not to mention that he is up against his former lecturer. It will be rewarded with a narrow victory [400 votes].

Actual results:
(P152) Kluang - DAP won by a majority of 7,359 votes
Mengkibol - DAP won by a majority of 10,001 votes
Mahkota - UMNO won by a majority of 1,108 votes


P153 - Sembrong

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 11,570 votes

State seats (2008):
N30 - Paloh
MCA won by a majority of 2,794 votes.

Chinese 44%; Malay 37%; Indian 17%
Voters (2013): 18,274
Voters (2008): 16,084

N31 - Kahang
MIC won by a majority of 5,324 votes.

Malay 74%; Chinese 21%; Others 3%
Voters (2013): 23,407
Voters (2008): 17,097

A whopping 3,452 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). Seems Hishamuddin Hussein (Minister of Home Affairs), despite all his antics in the past, is still popular in his constituency. If he were to contest in the urban areas, surely he'll lose.

My prediction:
Paloh would fall to DAP by a slim margin [300 votes]
Kahang would be retained by MIC with a reduced majority [3,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? Hishamuddin would still be around in Parliament, though he would see his majority being slashed to about 6,500 votes.

Actual results:
(P153) Sembrong - UMNO won by a majority of 10,631 votes
Paloh - MCA won by a majority of 103 votes
Kahang - MIC won by a majority of 7,801 votes


P154 - Mersing

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 13,736 votes

State seats (2008):
N32 - Endau
UMNO won by a majority of 3,527 votes.

Malay 76%; Chinese 19%; Others 4%
Voters (2013): unknown
Voters (2008): 18,244

N33 - Tenggaroh
MIC won by a majority of 8,233 votes.

Malay 80%; Chinese 13%; Others 5%
Voters (2013): 25,499
Voters (2008): 20,176

About 1,976 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). This is a typical UMNO fortress. Such is the confidence that they put an MIC candidate in a very Malay-centric seat, they can still come out comfortable victors.

My prediction:
Endau to be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [3,000 votes]
Tenggaroh to be retained by MIC with a comfortable majority [8,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? I can't see anything other than UMNO all over this seat. Expect a majority of about 13,000 votes. People won't even notice that the majority is expected to drop only slightly.

Actual results:
(P154) Mersing - UMNO won by a majority of 15,747 votes
Endau - UMNO won by a majority of 3,110 votes
Tenggaroh - MIC won by a majority of 13,014 votes


Overall analysis (Part 5):
PR stands a good chance in Kluang through its main strategist, as the tide of change is much alive in Kluang. However, PR still has to be wary of Ng Lam Hua's influence in Kluang at state level (considering he was sacked by DAP when he was initially chosen to contest the seats). Meanwhile, Sembrong and Mersing are 2 typical UMNO fortresses whereby the Malays are just unmoved by what PR throws in against the UMNO candidates.  

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?
Parliament: BN 10-5 PR
State: BN 22-11 PR

BN's lead over PR at this juncture is quite mathematical, if you see what I mean. Whatever PR has, BN doubles it.

Part 6 coming soon, although I have heavy doubts on whether I would be able to finish my Johor analysis by tonight. It's a lot to cover I can tell you that. Anyway, to all the readers unknown to me, I give you my thanks in advance. Happy voting!

Actual results:
Parliament: BN 12-3 PR
State: BN 23-10 PR