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Saturday, 4 May 2013

Why Johor? (Part 4) - updated with actual

P149 - Sri Gading

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 10,874 votes

State seats (2008):
N21 - Parit Yaani
MCA won by a majority of 3,857 votes.

Malay 54%; Chinese 43%; Others 2%
Voters (2013): 24,668
Voters (2008): 19,545

N22 - Parit Raja
UMNO won by a majority of 5,827 votes.

Malay 73%; Chinese 22%; Others 3%
Voters (2013): 20,253
Voters (2008): 17,300

1,190 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). Not a huge factor considering the large majority UMNO currently holds.

My prediction:
Parit Yaani would be retained by MCA with a reduced majority [2,000 votes]
Parit Raja would be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [5,300 votes]

Parliament-wise? We can't see anything past UMNO here. This is another typical UMNO fortress for which PR are sending their candidates to be slaughtered, though not totally. They may have some fight to reduce the majority, but not my much. Expect a majority of 9,000 votes.

Actual results:
(P149) Sri Gading - UMNO won by a majority of 5,761 votes
Parit Yaani - PAS won by a majority of 1,188 votes
Parit Raja - UMNO won by a majority of 3,956 votes


P150 - Batu Pahat

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 12,968 votes

State seats (2008):
N23 - Penggaram
MCA won by a majority of 575 votes.

Chinese 61%; Malay 35%; Indian 2%
Voters (2013): 45,259
Voters (2008): 34,519

N24 - Senggarang
UMNO won by a majority of 3,028 votes.

Malay 60%; Chinese 37%; Others 2%
Voters (2013): 24,090
Voters (2008): 19,799

N25 - Rengit
UMNO won by a majority of 5,279 votes.

Malay 79%; Chinese 18%; Others 2%
Voters (2013): 19,112
Voters (2008): 15,751

A whopping 4,086 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). Although the 12,968 majority that UMNO enjoys at the moment looks comfortable, trust me, it was a huge swing between 2004 and 2008. It doesn't look safe as first thought. Expect PKR to give Puad Zarkashi (Deputy Education Minister) a run for his money.

My prediction:
Penggaram would fall to DAP by a comfortable majority [2,500 votes]
Senggarang would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [1,500 votes]
Rengit would be comfortably retained by UMNO by about the same majority due to the popularity of the UMNO candidate [5,300 votes]

Parliament-wise? Puad Zarkashi may just survive the Chinese vote backlash through the bulk of the Malay votes. I expect a majority of about 7,300 votes, as I think there will be a lower level of split-voting this time around.

Actual results:
(P150) Batu Pahat - PKR won by a majority of 1,732 votes
Penggaram - DAP won by a majority of 10,051 votes
Senggarang - UMNO won by a majority of 2,083 votes
Rengit - UMNO won by a majority of 5,492 votes


P151 - Simpang Renggam

Parliament (2008): GERAKAN won by a majority of 7,853 votes

State seats (2008):
N26 - Machap
UMNO won by a majority of 4,178 votes.

Malay 60%; Chinese 35%; Indian 5%
Voters (2013): unknown
Voters (2008): 18,244

N27 - Layang-Layang
UMNO won by a majority of 2,442 votes.

Malay 49%; Chinese 35%; Indians 15%
Voters (2013): 17,950
Voters (2008): 16,615

About 1,233 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). GERAKAN was wiped out in Penang back in 2008, hence Johor provided their last lungs to remain relevant in BN politics, particularly this seat.

My prediction:
Macap to be retained by UMNO with a slightly reduced majority [4,000 votes]
Layang-Layang to be retained by UMNO by a slim margin [1,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? GERAKAN would still survive with a seat after polling tomorrow, due to it contesting in a Malay-majority seat, but will suffer a slight decrease in majority [6,000 votes].

Actual results:
(P151) Simpang Renggam - GERAKAN won by a majority of 5,706 votes
Machap - UMNO won by a majority of 3,902 votes
Layang-Layang - UMNO won by a majority of 2,518 votes


Overall analysis (Part 4):
In this case, there are no winnable seats for PR except for Penggaram at state level. This is a hard part of Johor for PR, hence they have to maximise their resources where they have a high chance of winning. Definitely a low chance of winning any of the parliament seats mentioned above.

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?
Parliament: BN 8-4 PR
State: BN 18-9 PR

This shows a real gap in support between BN and PR in Johor. It's starting to show why Johor is such a BN fortress ever since independence, furthermore it is UMNO's birthplace.

Part 5 coming right up!

Actual results:
Parliament: BN 10-2 PR
State: BN 18-9 PR