Final comment on Johor GE results

Well, I wasn't far off in terms of my predictions for both parliament and state seats in the most southern state of Malaysia.

At parliament level, I predicted that PR would win 7 seats at best, which would have included Segamat (where Chua Jui Meng was contesting) and Labis (where Chua Tee Yong was contesting). I was wrong on these 2 places when the voters gave BN narrow victories in both the seats. Also, I got it wrong in both the Muar and Batu Pahat seats, for which I predicted a PKR and UMNO victory respectively. It went the other way around. I realistically thought Muar is more vulnerable compared to Batu Pahat due to the closer majority for Muar as compared to Batu Pahat. Then again, how wrong can I be? Puad Zarkashi lost unexpectedly in Batu Pahat, which automatically means that 2 Deputy Ministers of Higher Education was defeated in the same GE, a first I would say.

Hence, this explains the 5 parliament seats PR won in Johor. I did told my friend before that PR is going to win 5 seats at most, but this was before I did the analysis. I tried to detect possible mood swings by going as micro as possible. It nearly pulled off I can tell you that.

At state level, I predicted that PR would win 19 seats at best, which would have meant denying BN their 2/3 majority in Johor for the first time in history. Can you imagine having come this far in UMNO's fortress? In the end, PR won 18 seats, which just fell 1 seat short of denying BN their 2/3 majority in the State Assembly. There are a few seats that I got it wrong, but I would like to single one out in particular: PALOH. I had predicted a narrow victory for DAP in this seat, for which they fielded an Indian candidate. This is a very mixed seat, but with the Chinese making up the majority at 44%, followed by Malays at 37% and Indians at 17%. You have to feel realistic that DAP is just going to nick this one, but in the end, the frustration was there for all to see. Imagine... losing by just 103 votes! The number of spoilt votes? 403 votes. Imagine where those spoilt votes could have gone to. This I have to remind you again ladies and gentlemen, there is a fine line between winning and losing, and this was one of them.

I guess that is all for now. I will make a full analysis for all the seats when I have the time to do so. Who knows, it might turn into a book for people to read, and they will know more about the guy who wrote 2 articles for Kee Thuan Chye's book "March 8: Time for Real Change".

Why Johor? (Part 8) - updated with actual

P162 - Gelang Patah

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 8,851 votes

State seats (2008):

N48 - Skudai

DAP won by a majority of 12,854 votes

Chinese 65%; Malay 22%; Indian 12%

Voters (2013): 56,633

Voters (2008): 44,459

N49 - Nusa Jaya

UMNO won by a majority of 7,384 votes.

Malay 47%; Chinese 38%; Indian 13%

Voters (2013): 50,231

Voters (2008): 34,217

Oh my God... 14,251 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). What the hell is this... This is just too amazing by any standard possible. Can you think of another place whereby you would see this much split-voting??? PR clearly has more votes than BN at state level, but how they did not convert this at parliament level is a very, very big question.

My prediction:

Skudai would be comfortably retained by DAP with an increased majority [16,000 votes]

Nusa Jaya would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? Lim Kit Siang up against Ghani Abdul Othman... What a battlefield I can tell you that... This is where generals face each other heads-on. Despite Ghani's reputation and track record of being a 4-term MB of Johor, he is facing an uphill battle against DAP's lion. The high level of split voting may give him some hope to defend Gelang Patah, but mind you, this is a Chinese-majority seat that we're talking about. I think Kit Siang has this one in the bag, but it won't be by much due to the high level of split-voting [2,000 votes].

Actual results:

(P162) Gelang Patah - DAP won by a majority of 14,762 votes

Skudai - DAP won by a majority of 18,050 votes

Nusa Jaya - UMNO won by a majority of 2,201 votes

P163 - Kulai

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 11,744 votes

State seats (2008):

N50 - Bukit Permai

UMNO won by a majority of 5,192 votes

Malay 52%; Chinese 34%; Indian 12%

Voters (2013): 21,663

Voters (2008): 14,863

N51 - Bukit Batu

GERAKAN won by a majority of 2,341 votes.

Chinese 62%; Malay 30%; Indian 7%

Voters (2013): 22,304

Voters (2008): 19,556

N52 - Senai

DAP won by a majority of 4,030 votes.

Chinese 65%; Malay 23%; Indian 11%

Voters (2013): 40,182

Voters (2008): 32,939

A whopping 8,221 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). Again... Are you kidding me??? Why do you guys have to follow Gelang Patah?? Oh my God... This is beyond my comprehension...

My prediction:

Bukit Permai would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,700 votes]

Bukit Batu would fall to PKR this time around with a comfortable majority [3,500 votes]

Senai would be comfortably retained by DAP with an increased majority [8,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I can see Teo Nie Ching (former Serdang MP) helping DAP to contribute to another seat in Johor as part of PR's push to become the new federal government. The level of split-voting still amazes me, but I expect it will dwindle down by a lot due to the cohesion of PR in this case. I think the majority would be around 3,500 votes in favour of DAP.

Actual results:

(P163) Kulai - DAP won by a majority of 13,450 votes

Bukit Permai - UMNO won by a majority of 3,369 votes

Bukit Batu - PKR won by a majority of 4,015 votes

Senai - DAP won by a majority of 11,227 votes

P164 - Pontian

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 14,444 votes

State seats (2008):

N53 - Benut

UMNO won by a majority of 6,304 votes.

Malay 78%; Chinese 18%; Others 4%

Voters (2013): 21,521

Voters (2008): 18,646

N54 - Pulai Sebatang

MCA won by a majority of 5,765 votes.

Malay 62%; Chinese 35%; Others 2%

Voters (2013): 28,232

Voters (2008): 24,618

About 2,375 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level).

My prediction:

Benut to be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,000 votes]

Pulai Sebatang to be retained by MCA with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I expect UMNO to retain Pontian comfortably, although their majority would definitely be slashed to about 9,600 votes. Ahmad Maslan (Deputy Minister in PM's department) is not some stranger we haven't known before. He's an UMNO bigwig, and he definitely has experience to deal with it.

Actual results:

(P164) Pontian - UMNO won by a majority of 13,727 votes

Benut - UMNO won by a majority of 6,572 votes

Pulai Sebatang - MCA won by a majority of 3,412 votes

P165 - Tanjung Piai

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 12,371 votes

State seats (2008):

N55 - Pekan Nenas

MCA won by a majority of 3,324 votes

Chinese 58%; Malay 39%; Others 2%

Voters (2013): 32,562

Voters (2008): 28,012

N56 - Kukup

UMNO won by a majority of 8,639 votes.

Malay 69%; Chinese 28%; Others 3%

Voters (2013): 19,438

Voters (2008): 17,689

Only 408 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). A non-factor in the context of Tanjung Piai.

My prediction:

Pekan Nenas would fall to the DAP with a comfortable margin [2,500 votes]

Kukup would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [7,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? MCA would survive the onslaught of the Chinese votes going against them in this seat, because they have the Malay voters in Kukup to thank for their strong support. Split-voting is a negligible factor, hence I think MCA would win this one by 4,800 votes.

Actual results:

(P165) Tanjung Piai - MCA won by a majority of 5,457 votes

Pekan Nenas - DAP won by a majority of 2,669 votes

Kukup - UMNO won by a majority of 6,946 votes

Overall analysis (Part 8):

Things are looking better for PR in this final part of the analysis. If things go to plan, Gelang Patah and Kulai will fall to DAP tomorrow. Pontian would remain an UMNO fortress for years to come, while it's going to be a close fight in Tanjung Piai between MCA and DAP. However, it has to be noted that DAP fielded a Malay candidate (Madhzir Ibrahim), this may potentially appeal to the Malay voters in particular, although the impact won't be significant.  

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?

Parliament: BN 19-7 PR

State: BN 37-19 PR

As the analysis comes to a close, we can see that PR can win 7 parliament seats in Johor at best, despite the valiant efforts of campaigning during the last 2 weeks. It is all there for us to see how Johor would remain a BN fortress, although it is now weakened as compared to 2008. And as we can see, PR has just gained enough seats at state level to prevent BN's 2/3 majority in the state assembly. This will be quite a change from 2008.

Only voting day tomorrow can decide whether my predictions would be correct or otherwise. I've done my analysis based on an honest and realistic assessment of the current political sentiments.

The most important thing we can do now is to vote tomorrow and pray. We will see what happens in the next 24 hours, in what could be a defining moment for our country.

Actual results:

Parliament: BN 21-5 PR

State: BN 38-18 PR

Why Johor? (Part 7) - updated with actual

P158 - Tebrau

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 14,658 votes

State seats (2008):

N40 - Tiram

UMNO won by a majority of 8,178 votes

Malay 53%; Chinese 30%; Indian 15%

Voters (2013): 46,274

Voters (2008): 34,018

N41 - Puteri Wangsa

UMNO won by a majority of 5,791 votes.

Chinese 47%; Malay 40%; Indian 12%

Voters (2013): 43,877

Voters (2008): 28,487

689 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). A non-factor in determining the next Tebrau MP.

My prediction:

Tiram would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,000 votes]

PAS would send chills down your spine by recording victory with a slim margin [400 votes]

Parliament-wise? MCA would still retain Tebrau, but expect their majority to be slashed to around 5,500 votes this time around. Who says MCA is irrelevant? (But hey, this is a Malay-majority seat we're talking about).

Actual results:

(P158) Tebrau - MCA won by a majority of 1,767 votes

Tiram - UMNO won by a majority of 7,443 votes

Puteri Wangsa - PAS won by a majority of 3,469 votes

P159 - Pasir Gudang

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 17,281 votes

State seats (2008):

N42 - Johor Jaya

MCA won by a majority of 10,488 votes.

Chinese 47%; Malay 43%; Indian 7%

Voters (2013): 51,698

Voters (2008): 38,167

N43 - Permas

MIC won by a majority of 2,018 votes.

Malay 52%; Chinese 29%; Indian 15%

Voters (2013): 49,423

Voters (2008): 34,695

A whopping 4,775 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). This was due to the popularity of the PAS candidate in Permas.

My prediction:

Johor Jaya would be retained by MCA with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]

Permas would fall to PAS this time around with a comfortable majority [3,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? Khaled Nordin (Minister of Higher Education) is no longer contesting at parliament level, as he's the next Johor MB to replace Ghani, who is contesting against DAP's Lim Kit Siang in Gelang Patah, which I would cover later on. Coming back to Tebrau, this seat is a real possibility for PR to win. However, the split-voting pattern by the Malay voters would deter a shock, although expect the majority to be slashed substantially [4,000 votes].

Actual results:

(P159) Pasir Gudang - UMNO won by a majority of 935 votes

Johor Jaya - DAP won by a majority of 1,460 votes

Permas - UMNO won by a majority of 5,752 votes

P160 - Johor Bahru

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 25,349 votes

State seats (2008):

N44 - Tanjong Puteri

UMNO won by a majority of 13,740 votes.

Malay 61%; Chinese 32%; Indian 5%

Voters (2013): 51,545

Voters (2008): 47,062

N45 - Stulang

MCA won by a majority of 6,181 votes.

Chinese 55%; Malay 39%; Indian 4%

Voters (2013): 44,970

Voters (2008): 42,663

A whopping 5,428 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). Such is the popularity of Shahrir Samad, who is a very experienced political veteran. Lest people forget, he has a brother on the other side of the political divide... (and he's defending his Shah Alam seat against a certain Zul Nordin). Well, let's not deflect our attention way from Shahrir, shall we? This is Johor Bahru we're talking about, the state capital.

My prediction:

Tanjong Puteri to be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [10,000 votes]

Stulang to fall to DAP with a less than comfortable margin [1,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? I expect Shahrir Samad's majority to be further reduced due to the rise of the Chinese in Stulang. Expect the majority to be around 15,000 votes, as there might be some Chinese would go split-voting.

Actual results:

(P160) Johor Bahru - UMNO won by a majority of 10,134 votes

Tanjung Puteri - UMNO won by a majority of 9,097 votes

Stulang - DAP won by a majority of 3,296 votes

P161 - Pulai

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 20,449 votes

State seats (2008):

N46 - Pengkalan Rinting

MCA won by a majority of 10,374 votes.

Chinese 45%; Malay 43%; Indian 11%

Voters (2013): 61,316

Voters (2008): 46,664

N47 - Kempas

UMNO won by a majority of 8,186 votes.

Malay 54%; Chinese 35%; Indian 9%

Voters (2013): 39,379

Voters (2008): 32,958

1,889 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). Nur Jazlan is very popular in Pulai, if I'm not mistaken, he has the ability to speak fluently in one of the Chinese dialects (can someone confirm this for me?).

My prediction:

DAP would cause a huge shock in Pengkalan Rinting by a slim margin [500 votes]

Kempas would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [4,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I expect Nur Jazlan to still be in Parliament after tomorrow's voting, but he won't wake up easy to seeing his majority being slashed significantly once more. If we're forgeting who he is up against, this is a jolt for your memory. It is Salahuddin Ayub. =3 As much as we first thought that Salahuddin was sent for slaughter, it seems that there is a basis for sending him there. He is capable and experienced, having served Kubang Kerian in Kelantan for more than 10 years. He's also the prospective MB if PR wins in Johor, but this is very unlikely to happen tomorrow. There will be inroads made by PR, but winning the state? Come on... Be realistic. He's not even guaranteed to win in Nusajaya. Hence, comes down to my prediction, UMNO to win by 6,500 votes (considering split-voting).

Actual results:

(P161) Pulai - UMNO won by a majority of 3,226 votes

Pengkalan Rinting - DAP won by a majority of 1,970 votes

Kempas - UMNO won by a majority of 3,947 votes

Overall analysis (Part 7):

PR has an almost equal to chance to take the Tebrau seat away from BN. However, the Malay-majority demographic is the only thing preventing a possible victory for PR, although they can potentially win one of the state seats (Puteri Wangsa). The same case goes for Pasir Gudang. PR may potentially have more votes at state level as compared to parliament level. If they could cut down on this split-voting, they have a real shot, but I don't see that coming. Johor Bahru remains as Shahrir Samad territory, although it won't be a fortress any longer. And finally in Pulai, expect Salahuddin to give Nur Jazlan a run for his life before losing bravely tomorrow.  

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?

Parliament: BN 17-5 PR

State: BN 32-15 PR

As we can see, PR is making better progress at state level as compared to parliament level. The number of parliament seats that they can win has been stagnant since Part 5 of my analysis. They will definitely give a better fight in this part of the analysis, though they are expected to come up with no parliamentary seats for show.

Part 8 will be the last part of my Johor series before tomorrow's polling day. By then, we would know where PR would stand in the context of battlefield Johor.

Actual results:

Parliament: BN 19-3 PR

State: BN 33-14 PR