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Saturday, 4 May 2013

Why Johor? (Part 7) - updated with actual

P158 - Tebrau

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 14,658 votes

State seats (2008):
N40 - Tiram
UMNO won by a majority of 8,178 votes

Malay 53%; Chinese 30%; Indian 15%
Voters (2013): 46,274
Voters (2008): 34,018

N41 - Puteri Wangsa
UMNO won by a majority of 5,791 votes.

Chinese 47%; Malay 40%; Indian 12%
Voters (2013): 43,877
Voters (2008): 28,487

689 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). A non-factor in determining the next Tebrau MP.

My prediction:
Tiram would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,000 votes]
PAS would send chills down your spine by recording victory with a slim margin [400 votes]

Parliament-wise? MCA would still retain Tebrau, but expect their majority to be slashed to around 5,500 votes this time around. Who says MCA is irrelevant? (But hey, this is a Malay-majority seat we're talking about).

Actual results:
(P158) Tebrau - MCA won by a majority of 1,767 votes
Tiram - UMNO won by a majority of 7,443 votes
Puteri Wangsa - PAS won by a majority of 3,469 votes


P159 - Pasir Gudang

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 17,281 votes

State seats (2008):
N42 - Johor Jaya
MCA won by a majority of 10,488 votes.

Chinese 47%; Malay 43%; Indian 7%
Voters (2013): 51,698
Voters (2008): 38,167

N43 - Permas
MIC won by a majority of 2,018 votes.

Malay 52%; Chinese 29%; Indian 15%
Voters (2013): 49,423
Voters (2008): 34,695

A whopping 4,775 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). This was due to the popularity of the PAS candidate in Permas.

My prediction:
Johor Jaya would be retained by MCA with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]
Permas would fall to PAS this time around with a comfortable majority [3,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? Khaled Nordin (Minister of Higher Education) is no longer contesting at parliament level, as he's the next Johor MB to replace Ghani, who is contesting against DAP's Lim Kit Siang in Gelang Patah, which I would cover later on. Coming back to Tebrau, this seat is a real possibility for PR to win. However, the split-voting pattern by the Malay voters would deter a shock, although expect the majority to be slashed substantially [4,000 votes].

Actual results:
(P159) Pasir Gudang - UMNO won by a majority of 935 votes
Johor Jaya - DAP won by a majority of 1,460 votes
Permas - UMNO won by a majority of 5,752 votes


P160 - Johor Bahru

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 25,349 votes

State seats (2008):
N44 - Tanjong Puteri
UMNO won by a majority of 13,740 votes.

Malay 61%; Chinese 32%; Indian 5%
Voters (2013): 51,545
Voters (2008): 47,062

N45 - Stulang
MCA won by a majority of 6,181 votes.

Chinese 55%; Malay 39%; Indian 4%
Voters (2013): 44,970
Voters (2008): 42,663

A whopping 5,428 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). Such is the popularity of Shahrir Samad, who is a very experienced political veteran. Lest people forget, he has a brother on the other side of the political divide... (and he's defending his Shah Alam seat against a certain Zul Nordin). Well, let's not deflect our attention way from Shahrir, shall we? This is Johor Bahru we're talking about, the state capital.

My prediction:
Tanjong Puteri to be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [10,000 votes]
Stulang to fall to DAP with a less than comfortable margin [1,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? I expect Shahrir Samad's majority to be further reduced due to the rise of the Chinese in Stulang. Expect the majority to be around 15,000 votes, as there might be some Chinese would go split-voting.

Actual results:
(P160) Johor Bahru - UMNO won by a majority of 10,134 votes
Tanjung Puteri - UMNO won by a majority of 9,097 votes
Stulang - DAP won by a majority of 3,296 votes


P161 - Pulai

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 20,449 votes

State seats (2008):
N46 - Pengkalan Rinting
MCA won by a majority of 10,374 votes.

Chinese 45%; Malay 43%; Indian 11%
Voters (2013): 61,316
Voters (2008): 46,664

N47 - Kempas
UMNO won by a majority of 8,186 votes.

Malay 54%; Chinese 35%; Indian 9%
Voters (2013): 39,379
Voters (2008): 32,958

1,889 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). Nur Jazlan is very popular in Pulai, if I'm not mistaken, he has the ability to speak fluently in one of the Chinese dialects (can someone confirm this for me?).

My prediction:
DAP would cause a huge shock in Pengkalan Rinting by a slim margin [500 votes]
Kempas would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [4,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I expect Nur Jazlan to still be in Parliament after tomorrow's voting, but he won't wake up easy to seeing his majority being slashed significantly once more. If we're forgeting who he is up against, this is a jolt for your memory. It is Salahuddin Ayub. =3 As much as we first thought that Salahuddin was sent for slaughter, it seems that there is a basis for sending him there. He is capable and experienced, having served Kubang Kerian in Kelantan for more than 10 years. He's also the prospective MB if PR wins in Johor, but this is very unlikely to happen tomorrow. There will be inroads made by PR, but winning the state? Come on... Be realistic. He's not even guaranteed to win in Nusajaya. Hence, comes down to my prediction, UMNO to win by 6,500 votes (considering split-voting).

Actual results:
(P161) Pulai - UMNO won by a majority of 3,226 votes
Pengkalan Rinting - DAP won by a majority of 1,970 votes
Kempas - UMNO won by a majority of 3,947 votes


Overall analysis (Part 7):
PR has an almost equal to chance to take the Tebrau seat away from BN. However, the Malay-majority demographic is the only thing preventing a possible victory for PR, although they can potentially win one of the state seats (Puteri Wangsa). The same case goes for Pasir Gudang. PR may potentially have more votes at state level as compared to parliament level. If they could cut down on this split-voting, they have a real shot, but I don't see that coming. Johor Bahru remains as Shahrir Samad territory, although it won't be a fortress any longer. And finally in Pulai, expect Salahuddin to give Nur Jazlan a run for his life before losing bravely tomorrow.  

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?
Parliament: BN 17-5 PR
State: BN 32-15 PR

As we can see, PR is making better progress at state level as compared to parliament level. The number of parliament seats that they can win has been stagnant since Part 5 of my analysis. They will definitely give a better fight in this part of the analysis, though they are expected to come up with no parliamentary seats for show.

Part 8 will be the last part of my Johor series before tomorrow's polling day. By then, we would know where PR would stand in the context of battlefield Johor.

Actual results:
Parliament: BN 19-3 PR
State: BN 33-14 PR