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Saturday, 4 May 2013

Why Johor? (Part 3) - updated with actual

P146 - Muar

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 4,661 votes

State seats (2008):
N15 - Maharani
PAS won by a majority of 158 votes.

Malay 55%; Chinese 42%; Indian 2%
Voters (2013): 27,461
Voters (2008): 22,902

N16 - Sungai Balang
UMNO won by a majority of 2,018 votes.

Malay 72%; Chinese 27%; Others 1%
Voters (2013): 21,173
Voters (2008): 18,117

A whopping 2,801 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). Surely a big factor in determining winning or losing by the narrowest of margins.

My prediction:
Maharani would be retained by PAS with a bigger majority due to the popularity of the PAS candidate [2,000 votes].
PAS may pull off a shock in Sungai Balang due to the familiarity of the PAS candidate with the area and its constituents [1,000 votes].

Parliament-wise? A matter of how many voters would opt for split-voting is a huge question mark. I assume about 2,500 voters are going to do so. If this is the case, we may see PKR pulling off a shock against the Deputy Minister of Youth and Sports, but by a narrow margin most probably (by 500 votes). This is a hot seat to watch tomorrow.

Actual results:
(P146) Muar - UMNO won by a majority of 1,646 votes
Maharani - PAS won by a majority of 3,136 votes
Sungai Balang - UMNO won by a majority of 1,635 votes


P147 - Parit Sulong

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 13,599 votes

State seats (2008):
N17 - Semerah
UMNO won by a majority of 5,074 votes.

Malay 63%; Chinese 34%; Others 3%
Voters (2013): 31,123
Voters (2008): 28,563

N18 - Sri Medan
UMNO won by a majority of 7,654 votes.

Malay 83%; Chinese 9%; Others 8%
Voters (2013): 25,907
Voters (2008): 21,671

871 opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). Considering how big the majority is, it won't affect BN's support at all.

My prediction:
Semerah would still be retained by UMNO by a slightly reduced majority [4,500 votes]
Sri Medan would be comfortably retained by UMNO, also by a slightly reduced majority [7,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? UMNO to win by 12,300 votes if about 800 voters use the same split voting pattern mentioned above.

Actual results:
(P147) Parit Sulong - UMNO won by a majority of 11,753 votes
Semerah - UMNO won by a majority of 2,649 votes
Sri Medan - UMNO won by a majority of 9,430 votes


P148 - Ayer Hitam

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 13,909 votes

State seats (2008):
N19 - Yong Peng
MCA won by a majority of 2,493 votes.

Chinese 60%; Malay 32%; Indian 7%
Voters (2013): 22,522
Voters (2008): 18,328

N20 - Semarang
UMNO won by a majority of 7,314 votes.

Malay 82%; Chinese 13%; Others 4%
Voters (2013): 20,469
Voters (2008): 16,477

A huge number of voters (4,102 to be exact) opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). That just shows how popular Wee Ka Siong is, even among the Chinese in Ayer Hitam.

My prediction:
DAP may pull off an upset in Yong Peng, but by a small majority [500 votes]
UMNO to comfortably retain Semarang by a slightly reduced majority [7,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? I can't see the Deputy Education Minister losing here, although PR would continue to eat into his majority via Hu Pang Chaw, contesting under a PAS ticket. Expect about a majority of 11,000 votes due to the split-voting factor.

Actual results:
(P148) Ayer Hitam - MCA won by a majority of 7,310 votes
Yong Peng - DAP won by a majority of 2,475 votes
Semarang - UMNO won by a majority of 8,075 votes


Overall analysis (Part 3):
Of the 3 parliament seats above, Muar is the hot one to watch, due to the popularity of the PAS candidates at state level, as well as the high level of split-voting which may determine a victory for either side, though I'm going with PKR on this one. Parit Sulong is an UMNO fortress that is not destined to be lost to PR anytime soon. Ayer Hitam can be considered MCA's last bastion of survival as it is quite a mixed constituency, although the Malays are the majority voters here (56%), followed by the Chinese (38%). Also, Wee Ka Siong is a popular big name for the whole of BN. If he loses tomorrow, surely Johor will fall to PR (though this is a very unlikely scenario).

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?
Parliament: BN 5-4 PR
State: BN 12-8 PR

BN currently has an edge at parliament level as we speak. At this point in 2008, PR only won their solitary parliament seat in Bakri and no other Johor seats to back it up. If this continues to be the case, PR is going a long way towards banishing the notion that Johor will forever be a BN fortress. It's anyone's game at the moment, though I feel BN would still feel comfortable in Johor overall by the time I end this analysis before tomorrow's polling day.

Part 4 coming right up!

Actual results:
Parliament: BN 8-1 PR
State: BN 13-7 PR