Why Johor? (Part 8) - updated with actual

P162 - Gelang Patah

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 8,851 votes

State seats (2008):

N48 - Skudai

DAP won by a majority of 12,854 votes

Chinese 65%; Malay 22%; Indian 12%

Voters (2013): 56,633

Voters (2008): 44,459

N49 - Nusa Jaya

UMNO won by a majority of 7,384 votes.

Malay 47%; Chinese 38%; Indian 13%

Voters (2013): 50,231

Voters (2008): 34,217

Oh my God... 14,251 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). What the hell is this... This is just too amazing by any standard possible. Can you think of another place whereby you would see this much split-voting??? PR clearly has more votes than BN at state level, but how they did not convert this at parliament level is a very, very big question.

My prediction:

Skudai would be comfortably retained by DAP with an increased majority [16,000 votes]

Nusa Jaya would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? Lim Kit Siang up against Ghani Abdul Othman... What a battlefield I can tell you that... This is where generals face each other heads-on. Despite Ghani's reputation and track record of being a 4-term MB of Johor, he is facing an uphill battle against DAP's lion. The high level of split voting may give him some hope to defend Gelang Patah, but mind you, this is a Chinese-majority seat that we're talking about. I think Kit Siang has this one in the bag, but it won't be by much due to the high level of split-voting [2,000 votes].

Actual results:

(P162) Gelang Patah - DAP won by a majority of 14,762 votes

Skudai - DAP won by a majority of 18,050 votes

Nusa Jaya - UMNO won by a majority of 2,201 votes

P163 - Kulai

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 11,744 votes

State seats (2008):

N50 - Bukit Permai

UMNO won by a majority of 5,192 votes

Malay 52%; Chinese 34%; Indian 12%

Voters (2013): 21,663

Voters (2008): 14,863

N51 - Bukit Batu

GERAKAN won by a majority of 2,341 votes.

Chinese 62%; Malay 30%; Indian 7%

Voters (2013): 22,304

Voters (2008): 19,556

N52 - Senai

DAP won by a majority of 4,030 votes.

Chinese 65%; Malay 23%; Indian 11%

Voters (2013): 40,182

Voters (2008): 32,939

A whopping 8,221 voters opt for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliamant level). Again... Are you kidding me??? Why do you guys have to follow Gelang Patah?? Oh my God... This is beyond my comprehension...

My prediction:

Bukit Permai would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,700 votes]

Bukit Batu would fall to PKR this time around with a comfortable majority [3,500 votes]

Senai would be comfortably retained by DAP with an increased majority [8,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I can see Teo Nie Ching (former Serdang MP) helping DAP to contribute to another seat in Johor as part of PR's push to become the new federal government. The level of split-voting still amazes me, but I expect it will dwindle down by a lot due to the cohesion of PR in this case. I think the majority would be around 3,500 votes in favour of DAP.

Actual results:

(P163) Kulai - DAP won by a majority of 13,450 votes

Bukit Permai - UMNO won by a majority of 3,369 votes

Bukit Batu - PKR won by a majority of 4,015 votes

Senai - DAP won by a majority of 11,227 votes

P164 - Pontian

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 14,444 votes

State seats (2008):

N53 - Benut

UMNO won by a majority of 6,304 votes.

Malay 78%; Chinese 18%; Others 4%

Voters (2013): 21,521

Voters (2008): 18,646

N54 - Pulai Sebatang

MCA won by a majority of 5,765 votes.

Malay 62%; Chinese 35%; Others 2%

Voters (2013): 28,232

Voters (2008): 24,618

About 2,375 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level).

My prediction:

Benut to be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [5,000 votes]

Pulai Sebatang to be retained by MCA with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I expect UMNO to retain Pontian comfortably, although their majority would definitely be slashed to about 9,600 votes. Ahmad Maslan (Deputy Minister in PM's department) is not some stranger we haven't known before. He's an UMNO bigwig, and he definitely has experience to deal with it.

Actual results:

(P164) Pontian - UMNO won by a majority of 13,727 votes

Benut - UMNO won by a majority of 6,572 votes

Pulai Sebatang - MCA won by a majority of 3,412 votes

P165 - Tanjung Piai

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 12,371 votes

State seats (2008):

N55 - Pekan Nenas

MCA won by a majority of 3,324 votes

Chinese 58%; Malay 39%; Others 2%

Voters (2013): 32,562

Voters (2008): 28,012

N56 - Kukup

UMNO won by a majority of 8,639 votes.

Malay 69%; Chinese 28%; Others 3%

Voters (2013): 19,438

Voters (2008): 17,689

Only 408 voters opted for split-voting (voting for PR at state level, voting for BN at parliament level). A non-factor in the context of Tanjung Piai.

My prediction:

Pekan Nenas would fall to the DAP with a comfortable margin [2,500 votes]

Kukup would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [7,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? MCA would survive the onslaught of the Chinese votes going against them in this seat, because they have the Malay voters in Kukup to thank for their strong support. Split-voting is a negligible factor, hence I think MCA would win this one by 4,800 votes.

Actual results:

(P165) Tanjung Piai - MCA won by a majority of 5,457 votes

Pekan Nenas - DAP won by a majority of 2,669 votes

Kukup - UMNO won by a majority of 6,946 votes

Overall analysis (Part 8):

Things are looking better for PR in this final part of the analysis. If things go to plan, Gelang Patah and Kulai will fall to DAP tomorrow. Pontian would remain an UMNO fortress for years to come, while it's going to be a close fight in Tanjung Piai between MCA and DAP. However, it has to be noted that DAP fielded a Malay candidate (Madhzir Ibrahim), this may potentially appeal to the Malay voters in particular, although the impact won't be significant.  

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?

Parliament: BN 19-7 PR

State: BN 37-19 PR

As the analysis comes to a close, we can see that PR can win 7 parliament seats in Johor at best, despite the valiant efforts of campaigning during the last 2 weeks. It is all there for us to see how Johor would remain a BN fortress, although it is now weakened as compared to 2008. And as we can see, PR has just gained enough seats at state level to prevent BN's 2/3 majority in the state assembly. This will be quite a change from 2008.

Only voting day tomorrow can decide whether my predictions would be correct or otherwise. I've done my analysis based on an honest and realistic assessment of the current political sentiments.

The most important thing we can do now is to vote tomorrow and pray. We will see what happens in the next 24 hours, in what could be a defining moment for our country.

Actual results:

Parliament: BN 21-5 PR

State: BN 38-18 PR