Well, 110 parliamentary seats have been predicted up till now. From Johor to Melaka to Negeri Sembilan to Selangor to Pahang to Terengganu and to Kelantan. Now, from Kelantan, I'll be moving to Perak now. Before I start listing down the Perak parliamentary seats, let's recall that PR is leading by 24 seats over BN. Thus, the score so far is 67-43 in their favour.
P54 - Grik
Incumbent: BN(GERAKAN)
2004 majority - 8,397 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 5,573 (GERAKAN)
GE13 Prediction: GERAKAN to retain the seat comfortably
P55 - Lenggong
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 5,632
2008 majority - 4,919
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P56 - Larut
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,608
2008 majority - 1,911
GE13 Prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
P57 - Parit Buntar
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 4,689 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 7,551 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P58 - Bagan Serai
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 5,618 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 3,413 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P59 - Bukit Gantang
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 8,888 (GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 1,566 (PAS)
2009 majority (by-election) - 2,789 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P60 - Taiping
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 2,172 (PPP)
2008 majority - 11,298 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P61 - Padang Rengas
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 4,772
2008 majority - 1,749
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P62 - Sungai Siput
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 10,235 (MIC)
2008 majority - 1,821 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P63 - Tambun
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 17,360
2008 majority - 5,386
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P64 - Ipoh Timor
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 9,774
2008 majority - 21,942
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P65 - Ipoh Barat
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 598
2008 majority - 15,534
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P66 - Batu Gajah
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 7,927
2008 majority - 24,627
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P67 - Kuala Kangsar
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 5,557
2008 majority - 1,458
GE13 Prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
P68 - Beruas
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 4,564 (GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 1,828 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat
P69 - Parit
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 4,696
2008 majority - 2,873
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P70 - Kampar
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 9,474
2008 majority - 2,697
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P71 - Gopeng
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 14,260 (MCA)
2008 majority - 7,368 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P72 - Tapah
Incumbent: BN(MIC)
2004 majority - 9.586
2008 majority - 3,020
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P73 - Pasir Salak
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 8,547
2008 majority - 2,688
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P74 - Lumut
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 11,614
2008 majority - 298
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P75 - Bagan Datok
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 12,539
2008 majority - 2,692
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P76 - Teluk Intan
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 9,836 (GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 1,470 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat
P77 - Tanjung Malim
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 14,536
2008 majority - 5,422
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
There are 24 parliamentary seats up for grabs in Perak. 13 are currently held by BN, while the rest are under PR. However, this is a possible opportunity for PR to wrestle more seats from BN come the next GE. We'll see what happens by then.
Current score in Perak: BN 13-11 PR
Prediction score in Perak: PR 21-3 BN
Total prediction score: PR 88-46 BN
Saturday, 19 September 2009
Tuesday, 15 September 2009
Voting patterns (Part 6)
Now, I will visit Kelantan, where PAS has ruled since 1990. The parliamentary seats are as below:
P19 - Tumpat
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 1,820
2008 majority - 9,377
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P20 - Pengkalan Chepa
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 6,222
2008 majority - 11,311
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P21 - Kota Bharu
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 1,723 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 11,288 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P22 - Pasir Mas
Incumbent: BEBAS (Datuk Ibrahim Ali - UMNO stooge)
2004 majority - 1,251 (PAS)
2008 majority - 8,991 (BEBAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P23 - Rantau Panjang
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 732
2008 majority - 4,486
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P24 - Kubang Kerian
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 5,627
2008 majority - 10,642
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P25 - Bachok
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 3,272 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 2,901 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P26 - Ketereh
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 2,888 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 400 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P27 - Tanah Merah
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 2,527 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 1,584 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P28 - Pasir Puteh
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 3,810
2008 majority - 3,968
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P29 - Machang
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 135 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 1,460 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P30 - Jeli
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,353
2008 majority - 4,436
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P31 - Kuala Krai
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 2,416 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 4,984 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P32 - Gua Musang
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 6,598
2008 majority - 4,394
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
From what I observe so far up to this point, Kelantan may retain status quo come the next GE. No seats gained, and no seats lost. 14 parliamentary seats, 12 controlled by PR and 2 by BN (I call the Minister of Trade Datuk Pa while my only favourite UMNO politician, Ku Li, holds the Gua Musang seat. Why do I call him Datuk Pa? Well, let's just say my mom is good friends with his wife. That's why.)
Current score in Kelantan: PR 12-2 BN
Prediction score in Kelantan: PR 12-2 BN
Total prediction score: PR 67-43 BN
I'll continue with Part 7 another time. In the meantime, let's sit back and enjoy the upcoming show in Bagan Pinang on the 11th of October.
P19 - Tumpat
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 1,820
2008 majority - 9,377
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P20 - Pengkalan Chepa
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 6,222
2008 majority - 11,311
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P21 - Kota Bharu
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 1,723 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 11,288 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P22 - Pasir Mas
Incumbent: BEBAS (Datuk Ibrahim Ali - UMNO stooge)
2004 majority - 1,251 (PAS)
2008 majority - 8,991 (BEBAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P23 - Rantau Panjang
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 732
2008 majority - 4,486
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P24 - Kubang Kerian
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 5,627
2008 majority - 10,642
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P25 - Bachok
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 3,272 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 2,901 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P26 - Ketereh
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 2,888 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 400 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P27 - Tanah Merah
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 2,527 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 1,584 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P28 - Pasir Puteh
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 3,810
2008 majority - 3,968
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P29 - Machang
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 135 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 1,460 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P30 - Jeli
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,353
2008 majority - 4,436
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P31 - Kuala Krai
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 2,416 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 4,984 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P32 - Gua Musang
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 6,598
2008 majority - 4,394
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
From what I observe so far up to this point, Kelantan may retain status quo come the next GE. No seats gained, and no seats lost. 14 parliamentary seats, 12 controlled by PR and 2 by BN (I call the Minister of Trade Datuk Pa while my only favourite UMNO politician, Ku Li, holds the Gua Musang seat. Why do I call him Datuk Pa? Well, let's just say my mom is good friends with his wife. That's why.)
Current score in Kelantan: PR 12-2 BN
Prediction score in Kelantan: PR 12-2 BN
Total prediction score: PR 67-43 BN
I'll continue with Part 7 another time. In the meantime, let's sit back and enjoy the upcoming show in Bagan Pinang on the 11th of October.
Saturday, 12 September 2009
Voting patterns (Part 5)
Now I will visit Pahang and Terengganu. The list of parliamentary seats are as below:
PAHANG
P78 - Cameron Highlands
Incumbent: BN(MIC)
2004 majority - 6,260
2008 majority - 3,117
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P79 - Lipis
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,624
2008 majority - 4,137
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P80 - Raub
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 9,752
2008 majority - 2,752
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P81 - Jerantut
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 8,457
2008 majority - 1,946
GE13 Prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
P82 - Indera Mahkota
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 14,229 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 1,027 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P83 - Kuantan
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 9,147 (MCA)
2008 majority - 1,826 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P84 - Paya Besar
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 12,518
2008 majority - 8,503
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P85 - Pekan
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 22,922
2008 majority - 26,464
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P86 - Maran
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,242
2008 majority - 6,641
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P87 - Kuala Krau
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,351
2008 majority - 5,265
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P88 - Temerloh
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 12,607
2008 majority - 2,441
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P89 - Bentong
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 16,839
2008 majority - 12,549
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably
P90 - Bera
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 4,470
2008 majority - 3,821
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P91 - Rompin
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 9,350
2008 majority - 10,679
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
The list above shows the Pahang parliamentary seats. There are 14 of them in total, with 2 held by PKR, and the rest are controlled by BN. Some of the seats may change hands come the next GE, we may never know. Now, I will move on to Terengganu.
Current score in Pahang: BN 12-2 PR
Prediction score in Pahang: BN 8-6 PR
Total prediction score: PR 52-36 BN
TERENGGANU
P33 - Besut
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 8,500
2008 majority - 10,590
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P34 - Setiu
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 6,696
2008 majority - 7,232
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P35 - Kuala Nerus
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 4,097
2008 majority - 1,341
GE13 Prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
P36 - Kuala Terengganu
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 1,933 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 628 (UMNO)
2009 majority (by-election) - 2,631 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P37 - Marang
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 163 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 2,747 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P38 - Hulu Terengganu
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,760
2008 majority - 10,460
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P39 - Dungun
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 4,896
2008 majority - 4,994
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P40 - Kemaman
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 15,882
2008 majority - 12,683
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
The list above shows the Terengganu parliamentary seats. There are 8 of them. 2 are controlled by PAS, while the rest comes under UMNO. Terengganu is a fortress for UMNO, so they shouldn't have much difficulties in defending Terengganu come the next GE.
Current score in Terengganu: BN 6-2 PR
Prediction score in Terengganu: BN 5-3 PR
Total prediction score: PR 55-41 BN
PAS 4 ALL.
PAHANG
P78 - Cameron Highlands
Incumbent: BN(MIC)
2004 majority - 6,260
2008 majority - 3,117
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P79 - Lipis
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,624
2008 majority - 4,137
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P80 - Raub
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 9,752
2008 majority - 2,752
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P81 - Jerantut
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 8,457
2008 majority - 1,946
GE13 Prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
P82 - Indera Mahkota
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 14,229 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 1,027 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P83 - Kuantan
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 9,147 (MCA)
2008 majority - 1,826 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P84 - Paya Besar
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 12,518
2008 majority - 8,503
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P85 - Pekan
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 22,922
2008 majority - 26,464
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P86 - Maran
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,242
2008 majority - 6,641
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P87 - Kuala Krau
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,351
2008 majority - 5,265
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P88 - Temerloh
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 12,607
2008 majority - 2,441
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P89 - Bentong
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 16,839
2008 majority - 12,549
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably
P90 - Bera
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 4,470
2008 majority - 3,821
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P91 - Rompin
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 9,350
2008 majority - 10,679
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
The list above shows the Pahang parliamentary seats. There are 14 of them in total, with 2 held by PKR, and the rest are controlled by BN. Some of the seats may change hands come the next GE, we may never know. Now, I will move on to Terengganu.
Current score in Pahang: BN 12-2 PR
Prediction score in Pahang: BN 8-6 PR
Total prediction score: PR 52-36 BN
TERENGGANU
P33 - Besut
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 8,500
2008 majority - 10,590
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P34 - Setiu
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 6,696
2008 majority - 7,232
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P35 - Kuala Nerus
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 4,097
2008 majority - 1,341
GE13 Prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
P36 - Kuala Terengganu
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 1,933 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 628 (UMNO)
2009 majority (by-election) - 2,631 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P37 - Marang
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 163 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 2,747 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P38 - Hulu Terengganu
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,760
2008 majority - 10,460
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P39 - Dungun
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 4,896
2008 majority - 4,994
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P40 - Kemaman
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 15,882
2008 majority - 12,683
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
The list above shows the Terengganu parliamentary seats. There are 8 of them. 2 are controlled by PAS, while the rest comes under UMNO. Terengganu is a fortress for UMNO, so they shouldn't have much difficulties in defending Terengganu come the next GE.
Current score in Terengganu: BN 6-2 PR
Prediction score in Terengganu: BN 5-3 PR
Total prediction score: PR 55-41 BN
PAS 4 ALL.
Thursday, 10 September 2009
Voting patterns (Part 4)
Ok...So, after visiting Johor, Malacca, Negeri Sembilan, and Selangor, I would now focus on Wilayah Persekutuan parliamentary seats. Before March 8, it was mostly BN stronghold. March 8, all that changed. Thanks to the Internet. Ok, enough of the crap, the list below are the results and predictions:
P114 - Kepong
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 1,854
2008 majority - 23,848
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P115 - Batu
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 11,517 (GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 9,455 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P116 - Wangsa Maju
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 10,185 (MCA)
2008 majority - 150 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P117 - Segambut
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 16,968 (GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 7,732 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P118 - Setiawangsa
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 19,669
2008 majority - 8,134
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P119 - Titiwangsa
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 11,815 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 1,972 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P120 - Bukit Bintang
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 304
2008 majority - 14,277
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P121 - Lembah Pantai
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 15,288 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 2,895 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P122 - Seputeh
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 12,895
2008 majority - 36,492
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P123 - Cheras
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 11,861
2008 majority - 28,300
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P124 - Bandar Tun Razak
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 17,527 (MCA)
2008 majority - 2,515 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P125 - Putrajaya
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 3,546
2008 majority - 2,734
GE13 Prediction: UMNO may retain the seat comfortably
From the list above, there are 12 parliamentary seats in Wilayah Persekutuan. PR currently holds 10 of them, while BN only has 2 of them. Based on the tsunami factor, it will be mostly status quo, except that Zulhasnan Rafique may lose his seat come the next GE, making it even more lopsided than it is, thanks to the relevation of the Internet. Another fortress for PR.
Current score in Wilayah Persekutuan: PR 10-2 BN
Prediction score in Wilayah Persekutuan: PR 11-1 BN
Total prediction score after 5 states analysed: PR 46-28 BN
I will continue with voting patterns (Part 5) next time.
PAS 4 ALL.
P114 - Kepong
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 1,854
2008 majority - 23,848
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P115 - Batu
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 11,517 (GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 9,455 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P116 - Wangsa Maju
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 10,185 (MCA)
2008 majority - 150 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P117 - Segambut
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 16,968 (GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 7,732 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P118 - Setiawangsa
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 19,669
2008 majority - 8,134
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P119 - Titiwangsa
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 11,815 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 1,972 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P120 - Bukit Bintang
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 304
2008 majority - 14,277
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P121 - Lembah Pantai
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 15,288 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 2,895 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P122 - Seputeh
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 12,895
2008 majority - 36,492
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P123 - Cheras
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 11,861
2008 majority - 28,300
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P124 - Bandar Tun Razak
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 17,527 (MCA)
2008 majority - 2,515 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P125 - Putrajaya
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 3,546
2008 majority - 2,734
GE13 Prediction: UMNO may retain the seat comfortably
From the list above, there are 12 parliamentary seats in Wilayah Persekutuan. PR currently holds 10 of them, while BN only has 2 of them. Based on the tsunami factor, it will be mostly status quo, except that Zulhasnan Rafique may lose his seat come the next GE, making it even more lopsided than it is, thanks to the relevation of the Internet. Another fortress for PR.
Current score in Wilayah Persekutuan: PR 10-2 BN
Prediction score in Wilayah Persekutuan: PR 11-1 BN
Total prediction score after 5 states analysed: PR 46-28 BN
I will continue with voting patterns (Part 5) next time.
PAS 4 ALL.
Tuesday, 8 September 2009
Voting patterns (Part 3)
Today, I will focus on Selangor parliamentary seats. Same assumption from before. The list below shows the Selangor seats:
P92 - Sabak Bernam
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 5,348
2008 majority - 1,335
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P93 - Sungai Besar
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,349
2008 majority - 5,009
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P94 - Hulu Selangor
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 14,483 (MIC)
2008 majority - 198 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P95 - Tanjung Karang
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 9,008
2008 majority - 3,820
GE13 Prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
P96 - Kuala Selangor
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 13,662 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 862 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P97 - Selayang
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 23,226 (MCA)
2008 majority - 3,567 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P98 - Gombak
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 13,207 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 6,867 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P99 - Ampang
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 19,732 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 3,676 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P100 - Pandan
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 14,112
2008 majority - 2,961
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P101 - Hulu Langat
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 22,777 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 1,745 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P102 - Serdang
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 11,280 (MCA)
2008 majority - 21,025 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P103 - Puchong
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 11,882 (GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 12,593 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P104 - Kelana Jaya
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 21,571 (MCA)
2008 majority - 5,031 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P105 - PJ Selatan
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 21,416 (MCA)
2008 majority - 5,706 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P106 - PJ Utara
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 13,043 (MCA)
2008 majority - 19,972 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P107 - Subang
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 15,460 (MIC)
2008 majority - 6,709 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P108 - Shah Alam
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 13,410 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 9,314 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P109 - Kapar
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 14,588 (MIC)
2008 majority - 12,297 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P110 - Klang
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 13,281 (MCA)
2008 majority - 17,701 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P111 - Kota Raja
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 8,239 (MIC)
2008 majority - 20,751 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P112 - Kuala Langat
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 21,495 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 989 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P113 - Sepang
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18.837
2008 majority - 4,849
GE Prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
From the list above, there are 22 parliamentary seats in Selangor. PR currently holds 17 of them, while the other 5 seats are held by BN. Based on the tsunami factor, BN may only win 1 seat come the next GE, which is in Sungai Besar. It may become a fortress for PR in the richest state of the country.
Current score in Selangor: PR 17-5 BN
Prediction score in Selangor: PR 21-1 BN
Total prediction score: PR 35-27 BN
I will continue with voting patterns (Part 4) probably tomorrow.
PAS 4 ALL.
P92 - Sabak Bernam
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 5,348
2008 majority - 1,335
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P93 - Sungai Besar
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,349
2008 majority - 5,009
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P94 - Hulu Selangor
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 14,483 (MIC)
2008 majority - 198 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P95 - Tanjung Karang
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 9,008
2008 majority - 3,820
GE13 Prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
P96 - Kuala Selangor
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 13,662 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 862 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P97 - Selayang
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 23,226 (MCA)
2008 majority - 3,567 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P98 - Gombak
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 13,207 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 6,867 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P99 - Ampang
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 19,732 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 3,676 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P100 - Pandan
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 14,112
2008 majority - 2,961
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P101 - Hulu Langat
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 22,777 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 1,745 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat
P102 - Serdang
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 11,280 (MCA)
2008 majority - 21,025 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P103 - Puchong
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 11,882 (GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 12,593 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P104 - Kelana Jaya
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 21,571 (MCA)
2008 majority - 5,031 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P105 - PJ Selatan
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 21,416 (MCA)
2008 majority - 5,706 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P106 - PJ Utara
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 13,043 (MCA)
2008 majority - 19,972 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P107 - Subang
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 15,460 (MIC)
2008 majority - 6,709 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P108 - Shah Alam
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 13,410 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 9,314 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P109 - Kapar
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 14,588 (MIC)
2008 majority - 12,297 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P110 - Klang
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 13,281 (MCA)
2008 majority - 17,701 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P111 - Kota Raja
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 8,239 (MIC)
2008 majority - 20,751 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably
P112 - Kuala Langat
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 21,495 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 989 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat
P113 - Sepang
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18.837
2008 majority - 4,849
GE Prediction: PAS may pull off an upset
From the list above, there are 22 parliamentary seats in Selangor. PR currently holds 17 of them, while the other 5 seats are held by BN. Based on the tsunami factor, BN may only win 1 seat come the next GE, which is in Sungai Besar. It may become a fortress for PR in the richest state of the country.
Current score in Selangor: PR 17-5 BN
Prediction score in Selangor: PR 21-1 BN
Total prediction score: PR 35-27 BN
I will continue with voting patterns (Part 4) probably tomorrow.
PAS 4 ALL.
Monday, 7 September 2009
Voting patterns (Part 2)
For today, I would focus on Malacca and Negeri Sembilan Parliamentary seats. Using the same assumption from my previous post, I have listed the Malacca and Negeri Sembilan seats as below, and whether there is a chance for a seat to change hands or maintained by the same party:
MALACCA
P134 - Masjid Tanah
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,399
2008 majority - 12,285
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P135 - Alor Gajah
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 22,548
2008 majority - 12,884
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably
P136 - Tangga Batu
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 24,444
2008 majority - 14,500
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P137 - Bukit Katil
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 27,252
2008 majority - 1,758
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P138 - Kota Melaka
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 219 (MCA)
2008 majority - 11,390 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain their seat coomfortably
P139 - Jasin
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 21,334
2008 majority - 12,490
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain their seat comfortably
So, from the list above, there are only 6 parliamentary seats in Malacca. Only 1 is currently held by DAP, while the other 5 seats are in BN's control. Based on the tsunami factor alone, 1 BN seat, which is Bukit Katil, may fall to PKR in the next GE. As I said many times before, it is just a prediction. Anything can happen between now and the next GE. Now, I would move on to the Negeri Sembilan parliamentary seats.
Current score in Malacca: BN 5-1 PR
Prediction score in Malacca: BN 4-2 PR
Total prediction score so far (Johor & Malacca): BN 22-10 PR
NEGERI SEMBILAN
P126 - Jelebu
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 14,780
2008 majority - 11,610
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P127 - Jempol
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 17,080
2008 majority - 12,320
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P128 - Seremban
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 16,236 (MCA)
2008 majority - 3,948 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P129 - Kuala Pilah
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 13,342
2008 majority - 10,008
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P130 - Rasah
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 4,563 (MCA)
2008 majority - 13,151 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P131 - Rembau
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,656
2008 majority - 5,746
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P132 - Teluk Kemang
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 17,777 (MIC)
2008 majority - 2,804 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P133 - Tampin
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,084
2008 majority - 13,079
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
From the list above, there are 8 parliamentary seats in Negeri Sembilan. 3 is held by PR, while 5 is held by BN. Based on assumption of tsunami factor, the Rembau seat (held by KJ) may fall to PKR in the next GE. Thus, making it an even game between BN and PR.
Current score in Negeri Sembilan: BN 5-3 PR
Prediction score in Negeri Sembilan: BN 4-4 PR
Total prediction score: BN 26-14 PR
I will continue with voting patterns (Part 3) whenever I'm free to do so.
PAS 4 ALL.
MALACCA
P134 - Masjid Tanah
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,399
2008 majority - 12,285
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P135 - Alor Gajah
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 22,548
2008 majority - 12,884
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably
P136 - Tangga Batu
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 24,444
2008 majority - 14,500
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P137 - Bukit Katil
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 27,252
2008 majority - 1,758
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P138 - Kota Melaka
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 219 (MCA)
2008 majority - 11,390 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain their seat coomfortably
P139 - Jasin
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 21,334
2008 majority - 12,490
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain their seat comfortably
So, from the list above, there are only 6 parliamentary seats in Malacca. Only 1 is currently held by DAP, while the other 5 seats are in BN's control. Based on the tsunami factor alone, 1 BN seat, which is Bukit Katil, may fall to PKR in the next GE. As I said many times before, it is just a prediction. Anything can happen between now and the next GE. Now, I would move on to the Negeri Sembilan parliamentary seats.
Current score in Malacca: BN 5-1 PR
Prediction score in Malacca: BN 4-2 PR
Total prediction score so far (Johor & Malacca): BN 22-10 PR
NEGERI SEMBILAN
P126 - Jelebu
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 14,780
2008 majority - 11,610
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P127 - Jempol
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 17,080
2008 majority - 12,320
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P128 - Seremban
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 16,236 (MCA)
2008 majority - 3,948 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P129 - Kuala Pilah
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 13,342
2008 majority - 10,008
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P130 - Rasah
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 4,563 (MCA)
2008 majority - 13,151 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably
P131 - Rembau
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,656
2008 majority - 5,746
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P132 - Teluk Kemang
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 17,777 (MIC)
2008 majority - 2,804 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably
P133 - Tampin
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,084
2008 majority - 13,079
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
From the list above, there are 8 parliamentary seats in Negeri Sembilan. 3 is held by PR, while 5 is held by BN. Based on assumption of tsunami factor, the Rembau seat (held by KJ) may fall to PKR in the next GE. Thus, making it an even game between BN and PR.
Current score in Negeri Sembilan: BN 5-3 PR
Prediction score in Negeri Sembilan: BN 4-4 PR
Total prediction score: BN 26-14 PR
I will continue with voting patterns (Part 3) whenever I'm free to do so.
PAS 4 ALL.
Sunday, 6 September 2009
Voting patterns (Part 1)
Today, I will focus on the Johorean parliamentary seats. Now, ASSUMING the political tsunami would last until the next General Elections, below are the seats that will either change hands or maintained in one party's control come next GE13 (Note: this is just an assumption. Do not forget to take other factors into account):
P140 - Segamat
Incumbent: BN (MIC)
2004 majority - 7,809
2008 majority - 2,991
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P141 - Sekijang
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 14,842
2008 majority - 9,867
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P142 - Labis
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 10,729
2008 majority - 4,094
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P143 - Pagoh
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,747
2008 majority - 12,581
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P144 - Ledang
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 21,671
2008 majority - 7,617
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P145 - Bakri
Incumbent: PR (DAP)
2004 majority - 19,059 (MCA)
2008 majority - 722 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat more comfortably
P146 - Muar
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 13,415
2008 majority - 4,661
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P147 - Parit Sulong
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 17,186
2008 majority - 13,599
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P148 - Ayer Hitam
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 15,763
2008 majority - 13,909
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably
P149 - Sri Gading
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 16,196
2008 majority - 10,874
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P150 - Batu Pahat
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 29,102
2008 majority - 12,704
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P151 - Simpang Renggam
Incumbent: BN (GERAKAN)
2004 majority - 14,155
2008 majority - 7,853
GE13 Prediction: GERAKAN to retain the seat comfortably
P152 - Kluang
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 18,698
2008 majority - 3,781
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P153 - Sembrong
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 16,978
2008 majority - 11,570
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P154 - Mersing
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 14,573
2008 majority - 13,736
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P155 - Tenggara
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 17,088
2008 majority - 14,049
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P156 - Kota Tinggi
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - Uncontested
2008 majority - 18,961
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P157 - Pengerang
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - Uncontested
2008 majority - Walkover
GE13 Prediction: A stroll in the park for UMNO
P158 - Tebrau
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 26,011
2008 majority - 14,658
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably
P159 - Pasir Gudang
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 31,121
2008 majority - 17,281
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P160 - Johor Bahru
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 46,792
2008 majority - 25,349
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P161 - Pulai
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 34,926
2008 majority - 20,449
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P162 - Gelang Patah
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 31,666
2008 majority - 8,851
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P163 - Kulai
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 18,144
2008 majority - 11,744
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably
P164 - Pontian
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 21,158
2008 majority - 14,444
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P165 - Tanjung Piai
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 23,615
2008 majority - 12,371
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably
So...from the list above, there are 26 parliamentary seats in Johor. Only 1 is currently held by DAP, while the rest goes to BN. Based on the tsunami factors alone, the prediction is gonna be that 8 of the Parliamentary seats would fall to the opposition next GE, while BN will only retain 18 of seats. But mind you, this is only a prediction. Anything can happen between now and the next General Elections. So, brace yourself for turbulent times ahead.
Current score in Johor: BN 25 - 1 PR
Prediction score in Johor: BN 18 - 8 PR
I will continue with voting patterns (Part 2) when I can find the time.
P140 - Segamat
Incumbent: BN (MIC)
2004 majority - 7,809
2008 majority - 2,991
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P141 - Sekijang
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 14,842
2008 majority - 9,867
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P142 - Labis
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 10,729
2008 majority - 4,094
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P143 - Pagoh
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,747
2008 majority - 12,581
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P144 - Ledang
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 21,671
2008 majority - 7,617
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P145 - Bakri
Incumbent: PR (DAP)
2004 majority - 19,059 (MCA)
2008 majority - 722 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat more comfortably
P146 - Muar
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 13,415
2008 majority - 4,661
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P147 - Parit Sulong
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 17,186
2008 majority - 13,599
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P148 - Ayer Hitam
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 15,763
2008 majority - 13,909
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably
P149 - Sri Gading
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 16,196
2008 majority - 10,874
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P150 - Batu Pahat
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 29,102
2008 majority - 12,704
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P151 - Simpang Renggam
Incumbent: BN (GERAKAN)
2004 majority - 14,155
2008 majority - 7,853
GE13 Prediction: GERAKAN to retain the seat comfortably
P152 - Kluang
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 18,698
2008 majority - 3,781
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset
P153 - Sembrong
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 16,978
2008 majority - 11,570
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P154 - Mersing
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 14,573
2008 majority - 13,736
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P155 - Tenggara
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 17,088
2008 majority - 14,049
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P156 - Kota Tinggi
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - Uncontested
2008 majority - 18,961
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P157 - Pengerang
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - Uncontested
2008 majority - Walkover
GE13 Prediction: A stroll in the park for UMNO
P158 - Tebrau
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 26,011
2008 majority - 14,658
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably
P159 - Pasir Gudang
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 31,121
2008 majority - 17,281
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P160 - Johor Bahru
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 46,792
2008 majority - 25,349
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P161 - Pulai
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 34,926
2008 majority - 20,449
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P162 - Gelang Patah
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 31,666
2008 majority - 8,851
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset
P163 - Kulai
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 18,144
2008 majority - 11,744
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably
P164 - Pontian
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 21,158
2008 majority - 14,444
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably
P165 - Tanjung Piai
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 23,615
2008 majority - 12,371
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably
So...from the list above, there are 26 parliamentary seats in Johor. Only 1 is currently held by DAP, while the rest goes to BN. Based on the tsunami factors alone, the prediction is gonna be that 8 of the Parliamentary seats would fall to the opposition next GE, while BN will only retain 18 of seats. But mind you, this is only a prediction. Anything can happen between now and the next General Elections. So, brace yourself for turbulent times ahead.
Current score in Johor: BN 25 - 1 PR
Prediction score in Johor: BN 18 - 8 PR
I will continue with voting patterns (Part 2) when I can find the time.
The link between politics and marketing
Now, let us apply the buyer-decision process of marketing theory and practice. Instead of buyers, we'll take voters in this case. So, we call it the voter-decision process, but the process is still the same.
1. Problem recognition
Take a perspective Malaysian voter who is just starting to follow politics. S/he feels the need to follow politics as it is becoming more interesting as time goes by. As we know, we have the 2 biggest rivals in Malaysian politics, BN and PR. So, he feels the need to choose a side in politics (although not all are aligned to one party or another; there are fence-voters of course). Now, we move on to the next step.
2. Information search
Assume that this prospective voter does not have Internet access. His/her only source of information comes from newspapers, such as Utusan Malaysia (no doubt it is Ugutan Melayu going by their racist articles), The Star, The Sun, Sinar Harian, Harakah and many more. Say s/he reads only the Utusan Malaysia and The Star. Then, by perception, she believes the spins and thus, making her evaluation of alternatives easier. However, what if she has Internet access after that? Now this is going to be interesting. We have pro-opposition (ex. my blog), neutral (ex. Malaysiakini) and pro-government (ex. rocky bru) blogs. If she reads pro-opposition blogs, there is a chance that she might not believe the spin in the newspapers as they don't reveal as much news as there should be. However, if she reads pro-government blogs, there is more of a chance that she will be influenced by pro-government views. So, we move on to the next step.
3. Evaluation of alternatives
We have two possible alternatives in politics, which are BN and PR. The information process will influence the voter to choose which side s/he will choose in politics. Depending on which information she depends on, it is going to influence her in her decision to support which political party. If s/he is exposed only to newspapers, the more likely s/he will be aligned to vote for BN (gov't of the day). However, if she is also exposed to the internet, then it is more likely that s/he will be leaned towards the opposition (PR in this case). As we have observed, the internet is becoming more important in the disseminating of information to the people. It has to a certain extent affect newspaper circulations as more and more Malaysian people are relying on the Internet for the latest news in which some would not be reported in the newspapers. It is one of the major factors in which BN lost their 2/3 majority in Parliament last General Elections. This is because BN were ignoring the changes in behaviour of the Malaysian people once they are exposed to the Internet. They never thought the Internet would be such a threat to their position as of now. They may have learned their lesson when they started blogs of their own after that, but it may have been too little too late as the opposition blogs had captured a large pie of the Internet market. Oh well, it is going to make the next General Election more interesting in 3 years' time.
4. Voting decision
After evaluating the alternatives, the prospective voter may choose to vote for BN or PR, or may not even vote at all. Let's say if this prospective voter had voted for the first time in last year's General Elections. S/he votes for BN and thinks that a stable government is very important. However, she had one of the shocks of her life when the news came out tomorrow that the opposition (PR) had denied BN a 2/3 majority in parliament and 5 states (not including Wilayah Persekutuan) had fallen to PR. So, this will make him/her think. Had she voted for the right party? This will lead us to the last step, which is explained below.
5. Post-voting behaviour
After we buy stuff or after the voting process, each of us will feel cognitive dissonance, which is an inner conflict on whether s/he had made the right decision or not. In this case, the prospective voter would feel cognitive dissonance on whether she made the right decision in choosing BN. Therefore, it is a job for BN marketers to assure that she had made the right choice, but at the same time, the PR marketers would try to create more dilemma that s/he has to influence him/her that she had made the wrong choice. So, it depends on how s/he will react after that. She might switch allegiance or not, depending on his/her perception at that moment in time.
As you see from the explanations I made above, I say political parties needs marketing in order to promote their brand of politics. Since our world is shaped by perception, it is important for political parties to sway the perception of the voters to support them. Since PR is getting more and more support by the day, it is because their marketing strategy is effective. What does BN have to do in order to recapture the market that they lost? That I leave to you BN supporters to think. For me, the PR marketing is a more attractive proposition to me.
PAS 4 ALL.
1. Problem recognition
Take a perspective Malaysian voter who is just starting to follow politics. S/he feels the need to follow politics as it is becoming more interesting as time goes by. As we know, we have the 2 biggest rivals in Malaysian politics, BN and PR. So, he feels the need to choose a side in politics (although not all are aligned to one party or another; there are fence-voters of course). Now, we move on to the next step.
2. Information search
Assume that this prospective voter does not have Internet access. His/her only source of information comes from newspapers, such as Utusan Malaysia (no doubt it is Ugutan Melayu going by their racist articles), The Star, The Sun, Sinar Harian, Harakah and many more. Say s/he reads only the Utusan Malaysia and The Star. Then, by perception, she believes the spins and thus, making her evaluation of alternatives easier. However, what if she has Internet access after that? Now this is going to be interesting. We have pro-opposition (ex. my blog), neutral (ex. Malaysiakini) and pro-government (ex. rocky bru) blogs. If she reads pro-opposition blogs, there is a chance that she might not believe the spin in the newspapers as they don't reveal as much news as there should be. However, if she reads pro-government blogs, there is more of a chance that she will be influenced by pro-government views. So, we move on to the next step.
3. Evaluation of alternatives
We have two possible alternatives in politics, which are BN and PR. The information process will influence the voter to choose which side s/he will choose in politics. Depending on which information she depends on, it is going to influence her in her decision to support which political party. If s/he is exposed only to newspapers, the more likely s/he will be aligned to vote for BN (gov't of the day). However, if she is also exposed to the internet, then it is more likely that s/he will be leaned towards the opposition (PR in this case). As we have observed, the internet is becoming more important in the disseminating of information to the people. It has to a certain extent affect newspaper circulations as more and more Malaysian people are relying on the Internet for the latest news in which some would not be reported in the newspapers. It is one of the major factors in which BN lost their 2/3 majority in Parliament last General Elections. This is because BN were ignoring the changes in behaviour of the Malaysian people once they are exposed to the Internet. They never thought the Internet would be such a threat to their position as of now. They may have learned their lesson when they started blogs of their own after that, but it may have been too little too late as the opposition blogs had captured a large pie of the Internet market. Oh well, it is going to make the next General Election more interesting in 3 years' time.
4. Voting decision
After evaluating the alternatives, the prospective voter may choose to vote for BN or PR, or may not even vote at all. Let's say if this prospective voter had voted for the first time in last year's General Elections. S/he votes for BN and thinks that a stable government is very important. However, she had one of the shocks of her life when the news came out tomorrow that the opposition (PR) had denied BN a 2/3 majority in parliament and 5 states (not including Wilayah Persekutuan) had fallen to PR. So, this will make him/her think. Had she voted for the right party? This will lead us to the last step, which is explained below.
5. Post-voting behaviour
After we buy stuff or after the voting process, each of us will feel cognitive dissonance, which is an inner conflict on whether s/he had made the right decision or not. In this case, the prospective voter would feel cognitive dissonance on whether she made the right decision in choosing BN. Therefore, it is a job for BN marketers to assure that she had made the right choice, but at the same time, the PR marketers would try to create more dilemma that s/he has to influence him/her that she had made the wrong choice. So, it depends on how s/he will react after that. She might switch allegiance or not, depending on his/her perception at that moment in time.
As you see from the explanations I made above, I say political parties needs marketing in order to promote their brand of politics. Since our world is shaped by perception, it is important for political parties to sway the perception of the voters to support them. Since PR is getting more and more support by the day, it is because their marketing strategy is effective. What does BN have to do in order to recapture the market that they lost? That I leave to you BN supporters to think. For me, the PR marketing is a more attractive proposition to me.
PAS 4 ALL.
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