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Sunday, 6 September 2009

Voting patterns (Part 1)

Today, I will focus on the Johorean parliamentary seats. Now, ASSUMING the political tsunami would last until the next General Elections, below are the seats that will either change hands or maintained in one party's control come next GE13 (Note: this is just an assumption. Do not forget to take other factors into account):

P140 - Segamat
Incumbent: BN (MIC)
2004 majority - 7,809
2008 majority - 2,991
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset

P141 - Sekijang
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 14,842
2008 majority - 9,867
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P142 - Labis
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 10,729
2008 majority - 4,094
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset

P143 - Pagoh
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,747
2008 majority - 12,581
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P144 - Ledang
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 21,671
2008 majority - 7,617
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset

P145 - Bakri
Incumbent: PR (DAP)
2004 majority - 19,059 (MCA)
2008 majority - 722 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat more comfortably

P146 - Muar
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 13,415
2008 majority - 4,661
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P147 - Parit Sulong
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 17,186
2008 majority - 13,599
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P148 - Ayer Hitam
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 15,763
2008 majority - 13,909
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably

P149 - Sri Gading
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 16,196
2008 majority - 10,874
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P150 - Batu Pahat
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 29,102
2008 majority - 12,704
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P151 - Simpang Renggam
Incumbent: BN (GERAKAN)
2004 majority - 14,155
2008 majority - 7,853
GE13 Prediction: GERAKAN to retain the seat comfortably

P152 - Kluang
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 18,698
2008 majority - 3,781
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset

P153 - Sembrong
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 16,978
2008 majority - 11,570
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P154 - Mersing
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 14,573
2008 majority - 13,736
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P155 - Tenggara
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 17,088
2008 majority - 14,049
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P156 - Kota Tinggi
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - Uncontested
2008 majority - 18,961
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P157 - Pengerang
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - Uncontested
2008 majority - Walkover
GE13 Prediction: A stroll in the park for UMNO

P158 - Tebrau
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 26,011
2008 majority - 14,658
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably

P159 - Pasir Gudang
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 31,121
2008 majority - 17,281
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P160 - Johor Bahru
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 46,792
2008 majority - 25,349
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P161 - Pulai
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 34,926
2008 majority - 20,449
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P162 - Gelang Patah
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 31,666
2008 majority - 8,851
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P163 - Kulai
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 18,144
2008 majority - 11,744
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably

P164 - Pontian
Incumbent: BN (UMNO)
2004 majority - 21,158
2008 majority - 14,444
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P165 - Tanjung Piai
Incumbent: BN (MCA)
2004 majority - 23,615
2008 majority - 12,371
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably


So...from the list above, there are 26 parliamentary seats in Johor. Only 1 is currently held by DAP, while the rest goes to BN. Based on the tsunami factors alone, the prediction is gonna be that 8 of the Parliamentary seats would fall to the opposition next GE, while BN will only retain 18 of seats. But mind you, this is only a prediction. Anything can happen between now and the next General Elections. So, brace yourself for turbulent times ahead.

Current score in Johor: BN 25 - 1 PR
Prediction score in Johor: BN 18 - 8 PR

I will continue with voting patterns (Part 2) when I can find the time.