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Saturday, 19 September 2009

Voting patterns (Part 7)

Well, 110 parliamentary seats have been predicted up till now. From Johor to Melaka to Negeri Sembilan to Selangor to Pahang to Terengganu and to Kelantan. Now, from Kelantan, I'll be moving to Perak now. Before I start listing down the Perak parliamentary seats, let's recall that PR is leading by 24 seats over BN. Thus, the score so far is 67-43 in their favour.

P54 - Grik
Incumbent: BN(GERAKAN)
2004 majority - 8,397 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 5,573 (GERAKAN)
GE13 Prediction: GERAKAN to retain the seat comfortably

P55 - Lenggong
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 5,632
2008 majority - 4,919
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P56 - Larut
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 7,608
2008 majority - 1,911
GE13 Prediction: PAS may pull off an upset

P57 - Parit Buntar
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 4,689 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 7,551 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat comfortably

P58 - Bagan Serai
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 5,618 (UMNO)
2008 majority - 3,413 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat

P59 - Bukit Gantang
Incumbent: PR(PAS)
2004 majority - 8,888 (GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 1,566 (PAS)
2009 majority (by-election) - 2,789 (PAS)
GE13 Prediction: PAS may retain the seat

P60 - Taiping
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 2,172 (PPP)
2008 majority - 11,298 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably

P61 - Padang Rengas
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 4,772
2008 majority - 1,749
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P62 - Sungai Siput
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 10,235 (MIC)
2008 majority - 1,821 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat

P63 - Tambun
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 17,360
2008 majority - 5,386
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P64 - Ipoh Timor
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 9,774
2008 majority - 21,942
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably

P65 - Ipoh Barat
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 598
2008 majority - 15,534
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably

P66 - Batu Gajah
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 7,927
2008 majority - 24,627
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably

P67 - Kuala Kangsar
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 5,557
2008 majority - 1,458
GE13 Prediction: PAS may pull off an upset

P68 - Beruas
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 4,564 (GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 1,828 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat

P69 - Parit
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 4,696
2008 majority - 2,873
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P70 - Kampar
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 9,474
2008 majority - 2,697
GE13 Prediction: DAP may pull off an upset

P71 - Gopeng
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 14,260 (MCA)
2008 majority - 7,368 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably

P72 - Tapah
Incumbent: BN(MIC)
2004 majority - 9.586
2008 majority - 3,020
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P73 - Pasir Salak
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 8,547
2008 majority - 2,688
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P74 - Lumut
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 11,614
2008 majority - 298
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P75 - Bagan Datok
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 12,539
2008 majority - 2,692
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P76 - Teluk Intan
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 9,836 (GERAKAN)
2008 majority - 1,470 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat

P77 - Tanjung Malim
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 14,536
2008 majority - 5,422
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

There are 24 parliamentary seats up for grabs in Perak. 13 are currently held by BN, while the rest are under PR. However, this is a possible opportunity for PR to wrestle more seats from BN come the next GE. We'll see what happens by then.

Current score in Perak: BN 13-11 PR
Prediction score in Perak: PR 21-3 BN

Total prediction score: PR 88-46 BN

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