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Monday, 7 September 2009

Voting patterns (Part 2)

For today, I would focus on Malacca and Negeri Sembilan Parliamentary seats. Using the same assumption from my previous post, I have listed the Malacca and Negeri Sembilan seats as below, and whether there is a chance for a seat to change hands or maintained by the same party:

MALACCA

P134 - Masjid Tanah
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,399
2008 majority - 12,285
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P135 - Alor Gajah
Incumbent: BN(MCA)
2004 majority - 22,548
2008 majority - 12,884
GE13 Prediction: MCA to retain the seat comfortably

P136 - Tangga Batu
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 24,444
2008 majority - 14,500
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P137 - Bukit Katil
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 27,252
2008 majority - 1,758
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P138 - Kota Melaka
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 219 (MCA)
2008 majority - 11,390 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain their seat coomfortably

P139 - Jasin
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 21,334
2008 majority - 12,490
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain their seat comfortably

So, from the list above, there are only 6 parliamentary seats in Malacca. Only 1 is currently held by DAP, while the other 5 seats are in BN's control. Based on the tsunami factor alone, 1 BN seat, which is Bukit Katil, may fall to PKR in the next GE. As I said many times before, it is just a prediction. Anything can happen between now and the next GE. Now, I would move on to the Negeri Sembilan parliamentary seats.

Current score in Malacca: BN 5-1 PR
Prediction score in Malacca: BN 4-2 PR

Total prediction score so far (Johor & Malacca): BN 22-10 PR


NEGERI SEMBILAN

P126 - Jelebu
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 14,780
2008 majority - 11,610
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P127 - Jempol
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 17,080
2008 majority - 12,320
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P128 - Seremban
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 16,236 (MCA)
2008 majority - 3,948 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably

P129 - Kuala Pilah
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 13,342
2008 majority - 10,008
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

P130 - Rasah
Incumbent: PR(DAP)
2004 majority - 4,563 (MCA)
2008 majority - 13,151 (DAP)
GE13 Prediction: DAP may retain the seat comfortably

P131 - Rembau
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,656
2008 majority - 5,746
GE13 Prediction: PKR may pull off an upset

P132 - Teluk Kemang
Incumbent: PR(PKR)
2004 majority - 17,777 (MIC)
2008 majority - 2,804 (PKR)
GE13 Prediction: PKR may retain the seat comfortably

P133 - Tampin
Incumbent: BN(UMNO)
2004 majority - 18,084
2008 majority - 13,079
GE13 Prediction: UMNO to retain the seat comfortably

From the list above, there are 8 parliamentary seats in Negeri Sembilan. 3 is held by PR, while 5 is held by BN. Based on assumption of tsunami factor, the Rembau seat (held by KJ) may fall to PKR in the next GE. Thus, making it an even game between BN and PR.

Current score in Negeri Sembilan: BN 5-3 PR
Prediction score in Negeri Sembilan: BN 4-4 PR

Total prediction score: BN 26-14 PR

I will continue with voting patterns (Part 3) whenever I'm free to do so.

PAS 4 ALL.