Why Johor? (Part 2) - updated with actual

P143 - Pagoh

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 12,581 votes

State seats (2008):

N7 - Bukit Serampang

UMNO won by a majority of 7,250 votes.

Malay 70%; Chinese 26%; Indian 2%

Voters (2013): 21,480

Voters (2008): 18,880

N8 - Jorak

UMNO won by a majority of 4,604 votes.

Malay 59%; Chinese 35%; Indian 5%

Voters (2013): 25,400

Voters (2008): 21,162

727 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level).

My prediction:

Bukit Serampang would still be retained by UMNO, but with a reduced majority [6,000 votes]

Jorak would still be retained by UMNO, but with a reduced majority [3,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I may assume that around 1,000 people are going to do split-voting again. UMNO to win by 10,000 votes because it's a prospective PM if Najib fails to gain 2/3 majority in Parliament.

Actual results:

(P143) Pagoh - UMNO won by a majority of 12,842 votes

Bukit Serampang - UMNO won by a majority of 7,845 votes

Jorak - UMNO won by a majority of 3,726 votes

P144 - Ledang

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 7,617 votes

State seats (2008):

N9 - Gambir

MIC won by a majority of 2,463 votes.

Malay 55%; Chinese 40%; Indian 4%

Voters (2013): 21,427

Voters (2008): 18,724

N10 - Tangkak

MCA won by a majority of 295 votes.

Chinese 51%; Malay 38%; Indian 10%

Voters (2013): 23,434

Voters (2008): 19,198

N11 - Serom

UMNO won by a majority of 4,971 votes.

Malay 66%; Chinese 33%; Indian 1%

Voters (2013): 24,592

Voters (2008): 20,579

Only 112 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliamant level). A can-be-ignored factor when determining power at federal level.

My prediction:

Gambir would still be retained by MIC by a reduced majority [1,200 votes]

Tangkak would see a probable DAP victory by a comfortable margin [1,500 votes]

Serom would still be retained by UMNO, but with a reduced majority [4,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? UMNO to win by 3,500 votes due to some expected changes at state level and split-voting is a negligible factor.

Actual results:

(P144) Ledang - UMNO won by a majority of 1,967 votes

Gambir - MIC won by a majority of 310 votes

Tangkak - DAP won by a majority of 1,537 votes

Serom - UMNO won by a majority of 2,264 votes

P145 - Bakri

Parliament (2008): DAP won by a majority of 722 votes

State seats (2008):

N12 - Bentayan

DAP won by a majority of 2,796 votes.

Chinese 73%; Malay 25%; Indian 2%

Voters (2013): 23,490

Voters (2008): 21,233

N13 - Sungai Abong

PAS won by a majority of 1,550 votes.

Malay 51%; Chinese 45%; Indian 3%

Voters (2013): 28,304

Voters (2008): 21,592

N14 - Bukit Naning

UMNO won by a majority of 2,895 votes.

Malay 59%; Chinese 38%; Others 2%

Voters (2013): 15,535

Voters (2008): 13,547

729 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at parliament level, voting for PR at state level). As we can see in our analysis so far, split-voting can go 2 ways.

My prediction:

Bentayan would be retained by DAP with a bigger majority [4,000 votes]

Sungai Abong would be retained by PAS with a bigger majority [2,500 votes]

Bukit Naning would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,000 votes]

Parliament-wise? DAP to win by 4,000 votes, assuming about 500 people goes split-voting in the same pattern observed.

Actual results:

(P145) Bakri - DAP won by a majority of 5,067 votes

Bentayan - DAP won by a majority of 6,847 votes

Sungai Abong - PAS won by a majority of 3,813 votes

Bukit Naning - UMNO won by a majority of 1,455 votes

Overall analysis (Part 2):

We have the in-waiting Prime Minister (Muhyiddin Yassin) contesting in his usual Pagoh seat, which shouldn't pose too much of a problem in retaining the seat, though PAS would eat a bit further into his majority. Ledang may be considered a hot seat due to the large swing between 2004 and 2008, and the swing continues to be in favour of PR, though Hamim Samuri (UMNO) may just have enough in the bag to retain Ledang. Bakri on the other hand is fast becoming a potential fortress for DAP, thanks to Dr Sheikh Ibrahim (PAS) in establishing his strong presence in Sungai Abong, which goes a long way in helping DAP to retain Bakri come May 5.

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?

Parliament: BN 3-3 PR

State: BN 9-5 PR

It may be hot at federal level as we're all tied up at the moment. At this point in 2008, PR only won their solitary parliament seat in Bakri and no other Johor seats to back it up. This is already looking better on paper, and I've only covered 6 seats so far. Expect more surprises coming along gradually.

Part 3 would be done soon. Stay tuned.

Actual results:

Parliament: BN 5-1 PR

State: BN 9-5 PR

Why Johor? (Part 1) - updated with actual

P140 - Segamat

Parliament (2008): MIC won by a majority of 2,991 votes

State seats (2008):
N1 - Buloh Kasap
UMNO won by a majority of 4,466 votes.

Malay 55%; Chinese 32%; Indian 12%
Voters (2013): 18,816
Voters (2008): 15,424

N2 - Jementah
MCA won by a majority of 1,814 votes.

Chinese 54%; Malay 36%; Indian 9%
Voters (2013): 28,299
Voters (2008): 25,284

3,289 voters opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliament level).

My prediction:
Buloh Kasap would still be retained by UMNO, but with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]
Jemetah would see a probable DAP victory, but not by much [500 votes]

Parliament-wise? I may assume that around 3,000 people are going to do split-voting again. PKR to win by 1,000 votes then.

Actual results:
(P140) Segamat - MIC won by a majority of 1,217 votes
Buloh Kasap - UMNO won by a majority of 3,370 votes
Jementah - DAP won by a majority of 2,196 votes


P141 - Sekijang

Parliament (2008): UMNO won by a majority of 9,867 votes

State seats (2008):
N3 - Pemanis
GERAKAN won by a majority of 5,135 votes.

Malay 56%; Chinese 39%; Indian 3%
Voters (2013): 22,658
Voters (2008): 19,355

N4 - Kemelah
UMNO won by a majority of 5,435 votes.

Malay 55%; Chinese 39%; Indian 6%
Voters (2013): 20,471
Voters (2008): 15,783

Only 703 people opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliament level)

My prediction:
Pemanis would be retained by GERAKAN, but with a reduced majority [2,500 votes]
Kemelah would be retained by UMNO, but also with a reduced majority [3,500 votes]

Parliament-wise? Not much split-voting observed here, should be a comfortable 6,000 votes victory for UMNO.

Actual results:
(P141) Sekijang - UMNO won by a majority of 3,007 votes
Pemanis - GERAKAN won by a majority of 1,329 votes
Kemelah - UMNO won by a majority of 2,260 votes


P142 - Labis

Parliament (2008): MCA won by a majority of 4,094 votes

State seats (2008):
N5 - Tenang
UMNO won by a majority of 2,492 votes.
However, the recent by-election (2011) saw UMNO won by 3,707 votes.

Malay 49%; Chinese 38%; Indian 11%
Voters (2013): 16,974
Voters (2008): 14,511

N6 - Bekok
MCA won by a majority of 1,944 votes.

Chinese 54%; Malay 26%; Indian 18%
Voters (2013): 20,813
Voters (2008): 18,957

Only 342 people opt for split-voting (voting for BN at state level, voting for PR at parliament level). Hence, it's not a huge factor here.

My prediction:
Tenang would be retained by UMNO with a reduced majority [2,200 votes]
Bekok would see a probable DAP victory by a small margin [600 votes]

Parliament-wise? I may see a potential shock for DAP to win in Chua's fortress, maybe by 500 votes? I have a feeling more voters would go for split-voting rather than the mere 342 people last time around.

Actual results:
(P142) Labis - MCA won by a majority of 353 votes
Tenang - UMNO won by a majority of 1,586 votes
Bekok - DAP won by a majority of 1,401 votes


Overall analysis (Part 1):
We have some big guns contesting from both sides (Chua Jui Meng for PKR in Segamat & Chua Tee Yong for MCA in Labis). I consider Segamat and Labis hot seats because those are potential opportunities for PR in order to march into Putrajaya. We all know a lot of Johoreans missed the boat in 2008, they didn't see it coming up north. Some are wanting to put it right come May 5, which is only a few days away. Chua Soi Lek remains the only MCA president in history to not contest in the elections. This can be seen as cowardice by majority of the Chinese voters in Labis, and may vote accordingly to kick out his son, just enough to open a door to a narrow DAP victory. P141 is a black seat for UMNO, literally in the bag.

Where do we stand parliament-wise and state-wise?
Parliament: BN 1-2 PR
State: BN 4-2 PR

PR has a slight edge at the federal level, but surely lagging behind at the state level. Split-voting is definitely a factor here, it's quite a disease among some voters which continues to be prevalent.

Part 2 comes up next after this.

Actual results:
Parliament: BN 3-0 PR
State: BN 4-2 PR

GE 13 prediction (Part 5) - updated with actual

For the East Malaysia edition, I would only state the coalition names (i.e. BN & PR) because of the many local parties established in Sabah and Sarawak and I don't remember most of them.

Sabah:
P166 (Labuan) - BN to win by 10,000 votes
P167 (Kudat) - BN to win by 8,000 votes
P168 (Kota Marudu) - BN to win by 5,000 votes
P169 (Kota Belud) - PR to win by 500 votes (BN won)
P170 (Tuaran) - BN to win by 3,000 votes
P171 (Sepanggar) - BN to win by 1,500 votes
P172 (Kota Kinabalu) - PR to win by 7,500 votes
P173 (Putatan) - BN to win by 5,500 votes
P174 (Penampang) - PR to win by 1,000 votes
P175 (Papar) - BN to win by 6,500 votes
P176 (Kimanis) - BN to win by 6,000 votes
P177 (Beaufort) - BN to win by 4,500 votes
P178 (Sipitang) - BN to win by 7,000 votes
P179 (Ranau) - BN to win by 9,000 votes
P180 (Keningau) - BN to win by 2,000 votes
P181 (Tenom) - BN to win by 8,000 votes
P182 (Pensiangan) - PR to win by 500 votes (BN won)
P183 (Beluran) - BN to win by 6,000 votes
P184 (Libaran) - BN to win by 6,500 votes
P185 (Batu Sapi) - BN to win by 4,000 votes
P186 (Sandakan) - PR to win by 3,000 votes
P187 (Kinabatangan) - BN to win by 5,000 votes
P188 (Silam) - BN to win by 9,000 votes
P189 (Semporna) - BN to win by 18,000 votes
P190 (Tawau) - PR to win by 1,000 votes (BN won)
P191 (Kalabakan) - BN to win by 15,000 votes (if there is a candidate =3)

BN 20-6 PR

Sabah contributes 26 seats in the race to form the next federal government (11.7% of total parliament seats). The Land Below The Wind has been under opposition rule before in the 1980s until the early 1990s (Project IC in Sabah was the cause of downfall, and I have no idea how many of these Project IC people populate Sabah, but I am sure as hell there's a lot of them currently). So you can imagine how you feel as a Sabahan when your state is flooded with immigrants given ICs to vote for BN. You feel powerless to do anything. However, I do see some hope for PR as they are certain to do better than in 2008, although it will never be able to dislodge Musa Aman from his current position of power. PR only won 1 parliament seat, which is obviously Sabah's capital city of Kota Kinabalu. Expect them to retain KK and cause a surprise in some other seats.

Actual score:
BN 23-3 PR

Sarawak:
P192 (Mas Gading) - BN to win by 3,000 votes
P193 (Santubong) - BN to win by 12,000 votes
P194 (Petra Jaya) - BN to win by 14,000 votes
P195 (Bandar Kuching) - PR to win by 15,000 votes
P196 (Stampin) - PR to win by 12,000 votes
P197 (Kota Samarahan) - BN to win by 13,500 votes
P198 (Mambong) - BN to win by 7,000 votes
P199 (Serian) - BN to win by 9,000 votes
P200 (Batang Sadong) - BN to win by 6,500 votes
P201 (Batang Lupar) - BN to win by 5,500 votes
P202 (Sri Aman) - BN to win by 8,000 votes
P203 (Lubok Antu) - BN to win by 7,000 votes
P204 (Betong) - BN to win by 8,000 votes
P205 (Saratok) - BN to win by 4,000 votes
P206 (Kuala Rajang) - BN to win by 8,000 votes
P207 (Igan) - BN to win by 5,500 votes
P208 (Sarikei) - PR to win by 4,500 votes
P209 (Julau) - BN to win by 4,000 votes
P210 (Kanowit) - BN to win by 2,500 votes
P211 (Lanang) - PR to win by 8,000 votes
P212 (Sibu) - PR to win by 500 votes
P213 (Mukah) - BN to win by 10,000 votes
P214 (Selangau) - BN to win by 2,000 votes
P215 (Kapit) - BN to win by 500 votes
P216 (Hulu Rajang) - BN to win by 7,000 votes
P217 (Bintulu) - PR to win by 1,500 votes (BN won)
P218 (Sibuti) - BN to win by 5,000 votes
P219 (Miri) - PR to win by 5,000 votes
P220 (Baram) - BN to win by 4,000 votes
P221 (Limbang) - BN to win by 3,500 votes
P222 (Lawas) - BN to win by 2,500 votes

BN 24-7 PR

Sarawak has 31 seats on offer, which makes up a whopping 14% of total parliamentary seats. Hence, the importance of Sabah and Sarawak can never be downplayed in forming the next federal government. Without Sabah and Sarawak, BN would only have a majority of 5 seats back in 2008 and live in fear about losing power. As we all know, the 2011 state elections was held for Sarawak, whereby out of the 71 state seats, PR only managed to win 15. So much for their dreams of denying BN their 2/3 majority in the state assembly, for which they needed at least 24 seats. However, it would shape how many parliamentary seats are expected to fall to PR in GE 13. Assuming they have done further groundwork since 2011, they will make gains as compared to the 1 seat won by them in 2008 (Bandar Kuching). Particularly in Chinese-majority seats (i.e. Bandar Kuching, Stampin, Sarikei, Lanang and Miri), these would be DAP's forte. They would swing with their brothers and sisters in Peninsula Malaysia and vote for the opposition like they did in 2011. However, it will be insufficient to affect Taib's position in Sarawak as being the man that holds the glue for Sarawak BN. Without him, BN would have lost more seats during the state elections. Since when Taib was a liability for BN? You opposition fellas better focus on something else rather than trying to bring down the White Rajah. Anyhow, at the end of the day, there are surely gains to be made by PR in Sarawak, though they would fail in forming the next federal government. They would have to be satisfied with denying BN their 2/3 majority again, which may see Najib pave the way for Muhyiddin to become the 7th PM.

Actual score:
BN 25 - 6 PR

Total score for East Malaysia:
BN 44 - 13 PR (2013)
BN 55 - 2 PR (2008)

Overall score for all 222 seats:
BN 140 - 82 PR (2013)
BN 140 - 82 PR (2012)

Well well well, at the end of the day, I predict that PR would continue to deny BN their 2/3 majority in Parliament with exactly the same number of seats. The only thing that changes around here is where the seats would come from. No doubt PR would rely on more seats from East Malaysia in their efforts to dislodge BN after 56 years of ruling the nation. They can only make it happen in GE 14. This GE would be about consolidating their position as a capable alternative to BN (sounds defensive as it may sound, but it may be a reality).

Anyhow, Parliament is already dissolved, when is the election date eh EC?

Actual score for East Malaysia:
BN 48 - 9 PR

Overall score for all 222 seats:
BN 133 - 89

GE 13 prediction (Part 4) - updated with actual

Negeri Sembilan:
P126 (Jelebu) - UMNO to win by 10,000 votes
P127 (Jempol) - UMNO to win by 10,500 votes
P128 (Seremban) - DAP to win by 500 votes
P129 (Kuala Pilah) - UMNO to win by 8,000 votes
P130 (Rasah) - DAP to win by 7,500 votes
P131 (Rembau) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes
P132 (Teluk Kemang) - MIC to win by 5,000 votes (PKR won)
P133 (Tampin) - UMNO to win by 12,000 votes

BN 6-2 PR

I don't expect PR to make further inroads into Negeri Sembilan like they did in 2008, especially when they won 15 out of the 36 state seats at the time, which was a real surprise. However, if we were to recall the Bagan Pinang by-election, Isa Samad got back into the fold very convincingly, which shows his popularity in Negeri Sembilan. Hence, my deduction is that PR won't get that close again, unless the voters prove it otherwise.

Actual score:
BN 5-3 PR

Malacca:
P134 (Masjid Tanah) - UMNO to win by 9,000 votes
P135 (Alor Gajah) - MCA to win by 7,500 votes
P136 (Tangga Batu) - UMNO to win by 15,000 votes
P137 (Bukit Katil) - PKR to win by 2,000 votes
P138 (Kota Melaka) - DAP to win by 5,000 votes
P139 (Jasin) - UMNO to win by 8,000 votes

BN 4-2 PR

It's mostly status quo except for Bukit Katil, which I consider a semi-urban area and the tendency for these areas to strongly support PR. If PKR fields the same candidate, he may have a shot. There may be further progress by PR into BN's fortress, but it would be insufficient for them to dislodge the current state government led by Ali Rustam.

Actual score:
BN 4-2 PR

Johor:
P140 (Segamat) - DAP to win by 1,000 votes (MIC won)
P141 (Sekijang) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes
P142 (Labis) - DAP to win by 500 votes (MCA won)
P143 (Pagoh) - UMNO to win by 9,000 votes
P144 (Ledang) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes
P145 (Bakri) - DAP to win by 1,000 votes
P146 (Muar) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes
P147 (Parit Sulong) - UMNO to win by 12,000 votes
P148 (Ayer Hitam) - MCA to win by 10,000 votes
P149 (Sri Gading) - UMNO to win by 6,500 votes
P150 (Batu Pahat) - UMNO to win by 8,500 votes (PKR won)
P151 (Simpang Renggam) - GERAKAN to win by 3,000 votes
P152 (Kluang) - DAP to win by 2,000 votes
P153 (Sembrong) - UMNO to win by 7,000 votes
P154 (Mersing) - UMNO to win by 13,000 votes
P155 (Tenggara) - UMNO to win by 14,000 votes
P156 (Kota Tinggi) - UMNO to win by 16,000 votes
P157 (Pengerang) - UMNO to win by 11,000 votes (if they have an opponent) =3
P158 (Tebrau) - MCA to win by 5,000 votes
P159 (Pasir Gudang) - UMNO to win by 15,000 votes
P160 (Johor Bahru) - UMNO to win by 20,000 votes
P161 (Pulai) - UMNO to win by 18,000 votes
P162 (Gelang Patah) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes (DAP won)
P163 (Kulai) - DAP to win by 500 votes
P164 (Pontian) - UMNO to win by 12,000 votes
P165 (Tanjung Piai) - MCA to win by 4,500 votes

BN 21-5 PR

We all know about PR's charge into Johor for this GE. If there is to be a change in federal government, what better place can they start with? The state where UMNO was born. Despite their valiant efforts, I don't think they can win more than 5 parliament seats. But what we can observe is the majority slashes in most of the seats this coming GE as compared to 2008. It won't be enough though.

Actual score:
BN 21-5 PR

Total score for 3 states above:
BN 31 - 9 PR (2013)
BN 35 - 5 PR (2008)

Total score for Peninsula Malaysia:
BN 96 - 69 PR (2013)
BN 85 - 80 PR (2008)

As you can see dear readers, this is how pivotal Sabah and Sarawak is in determining the next federal government to be formed. 57 seats from East Malaysia, and most of the seats are considered fixed deposits for BN. Based on my prediction, PR needs at least 5 seats from the 57 to deny them the all-important 2/3 majority in Parliament. Or... to get to the magic 112 seats to form a simple majority, they need a whopping 43 seats from East Malaysia, which is very, very unlikely. Their main strength that must be utilised is right here in Peninsula Malaysia. To form the federal government, they really need to perform in Peninsula Malaysia (at least to win 100 seats so that it would be attainable to get at least 12 seats from East Malaysia). Otherwise, they can kiss their hopes goodbye and only hope to deny BN their 2/3 majority, whom I have to admit is looking solid under Najib's leadership.

Nonetheless, I'll be doing my part to vote in this coming GE in order to help my selected political divide to be the next federal government. Overseas students, if you're reading this, please fly back and vote for your future. It will shape our country's policies for the next 5 years. If change doesn't come now, it won't happen in the next 50 years. Make it count. Tell your family, relatives, friends, everyone you know. Play a part, you can influence them.

Actual score for 3 states above:
BN 30 - 10 PR

Total score for Peninsula Malaysia:
BN 85 - 80 PR

GE 13 prediction (Part 3) - updated with actual

Pahang:
P78 (Cameron Highlands) - MIC to win by 2,500 votes
P79 (Lipis) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes
P80 (Raub) - DAP to win by 500 votes
P81 (Jerantut) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes (UMNO won)
P82 (Indera Mahkota) - UMNO to win by 6,500 votes (PKR won)
P83 (Kuantan) - PKR to win by 1,500 votes
P84 (Paya Besar) - UMNO to win by 7,500 votes
P85 (Pekan) - UMNO to win by 20,000 votes
P86 (Maran) - UMNO to win by 5,500 votes
P87 (Kuala Krau) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes
P88 (Temerloh) - UMNO to win by 5,500 votes (PAS won)
P89 (Bentong) - MCA to win by 8,000 votes
P90 (Bera) - UMNO to win by 2,500 votes
P91 (Rompin) - UMNO to win by 10,000 votes

BN 11-3 PR

Adnan's wish for zero opposition seems far-fetched. And his ears would remain intact as Bentong would be retained by MCA. =3 However, expect PR to continue eating into BN's majority in Pahang. PR would gain 2 seats via Raub and Jerantut, but would lose Indera Mahkota. BN's fortress remains unaffected as this is also Najib's state. Pekan is there for us to see, full of army votes.

Actual score:
BN 10-4 PR

Selangor:
P92 (Sabak Bernam) - PKR to win by 500 votes (UMNO won)
P93 (Sungai Besar) - UMNO to win by 6,500 votes
P94 (Hulu Selangor) - MIC to win by 4,000 votes
P95 (Tanjong Karang) - UMNO to win by 1,000 votes
P96 (Kuala Selangor) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes (UMNO won)
P97 (Selayang) - MCA to win by 5,000 votes (PKR won)
P98 (Gombak) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes (PKR won)
P99 (Ampang) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes (PKR won)
P100 (Pandan) - PKR to win by 500 votes
P101 (Hulu Langat) - UMNO to win by 8,000 votes (PAS won)
P102 (Serdang) - DAP to win by 10,000 votes
P103 (Puchong) - DAP to win by 7,000 votes
P104 (Kelana Jaya) - MCA to win by 6,500 votes (PKR won)
P105 (PJ Selatan) - MCA to win by 1,500 votes (PKR won)
P106 (PJ Utara) - DAP to win by 15,000 votes
P107 (Subang) - PKR to win by 2,500 votes
P108 (Shah Alam) - PAS to win by 2,000 votes
P109 (Kapar) - PKR to win by 1,000 votes
P110 (Klang) - DAP to win by 6,000 votes
P111 (Kota Raja) - PAS to win by 11,000 votes
P112 (Kuala Langat) - UMNO to win by 9,000 votes (PKR won)
P113 (Sepang) - PAS to win by 500 votes

BN 10-12 PR

In an interesting battle for Malaysia's most developed state, the state government has done well overall and Khalid Ibrahim is no man's puppet. He just goes about in his job and has little time for politics. It would be a big loss to Selangor if he's not retained as MB (particularly if PR loses the state assembly). However, I do expect BN to regain lost ground in this GE. From just 5 seats, they would double their tally.

Actual score:
BN 5-17 PR

WP Kuala Lumpur:
P114 (Kepong) - DAP to win by 20,000 votes
P115 (Batu) - GERAKAN to win by 1,500 votes (PKR won)
P116 (Wangsa Maju) - MCA to win by 3,000 votes (PKR won)
P117 (Segambut) - DAP to win by 3,500 votes
P118 (Setiawangsa) - UMNO to win by 10,000 votes
P119 (Titiwangsa) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes (UMNO won)
P120 (Bukit Bintang) - DAP to win by 12,000 votes
P121 (Lembah Pantai) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes (PKR won)
P122 (Seputeh) - DAP to win by 30,000 votes
P123 (Cheras) - DAP to win by 25,000 votes
P124 (Bandar Tun Razak) - PKR to win by 1,000 votes
P125 (Putrajaya) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes

BN 5-7 PR

Basically, KL is still quite anti-BN since the tsunami. The freeflow of information on the Internet has made the voters' decisions easier. However, we should not underestimate the effort that BN has put in to win back those lost seats. Despite that, I still feel PR would still have the edge over BN in KL. Not to mention I'll be voting in Segambut, so I can roughly feel the overall sentiments in my area.

Actual score:
BN 3-9 PR

Total score for 3 states above:
BN 26 - 22 PR (2013)
BN 19 - 29 PR (2008)

Total score after 125 seats:
BN 65 - 60 PR (2013)
BN 50 - 75 PR (2008)

In 2008, PR won 75 seats out of the 1st 125 seats on offer, and that was sufficient to deny BN 2/3 majority in Parliament. This time around, they are 15 seats away to deny BN 2/3 majority once more. They will need more of those seats from the southern states of Negeri Sembilan, Malacca and Johore. I will cover the remaining 3 Peninsula states in Part 4.

Actual score for 3 states above:
BN 18 - 30 PR

Total score after 125 seats:
BN 55 - 70 PR

GE 13 prediction (Part 2) - updated with actual

Penang:
P41 (Kepala Batas) - UMNO to win by 6,000 votes
P42 (Tasek Gelugor) - UMNO to win by 3,500 votes
P43 (Bagan) - DAP to win by 15,000 votes
P44 (Permatang Pauh) - PKR to win by 7,000 votes
P45 (Bukit Mertajam) - DAP to win by 10,500 votes
P46 (Batu Kawan) - DAP to win by 1,000 votes
P47 (Nibong Tebal) - UMNO to win by 3,500 votes (PKR won)
P48 (Bukit Bendera) - DAP to win by 4,500 votes
P49 (Tanjong) - DAP to win by 8,000 votes
P50 (Jelutong) - DAP to win by 3,000 votes
P51 (Bukit Gelugor) - DAP to win by 10,000 votes
P52 (Bayan Baru) - PKR to win by 1,500 votes
P53 (Balik Pulau) - UMNO to win by 5,500 votes

BN 4-9 PR

Since the huge political tsunami landed in Penang back in 2008, the state government has done quite well overall, majority of the people would be happy to continue with them. However, BN would regain a few of the parliament seats that they lost which would not affect PR's position in Penang significantly. PR may remain as state government with a reduced majority due to Penang being a Malay-majority state a few years ago and UMNO would be looking to capitalise on their fear-mongering tactics among the Penang Malays to ensure that they get the lion's share of the Malay votes.

Actual score:
BN 3-10 PR

Perak:
P54 (Grik) - PPP to win by 2,000 votes
P55 (Lenggong) - UMNO to win by 4,500 votes
P56 (Larut) - UMNO to win by 2,500 votes
P57 (Parit Buntar) - PAS to win by 2,000 votes
P58 (Bagan Serai) - UMNO to win by 2,500 votes
P59 (Bukit Gantang) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes
P60 (Taiping) - DAP to win by 4,500 votes
P61 (Padang Rengas) - UMNO to win by 1,000 votes
P62 (Sungai Siput) - PSM to win by 1,500 votes
P63 (Tambun) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes
P64 (Ipoh Timor) - DAP to win by 10,000 votes
P65 (Ipoh Barat) - DAP to win by 6,000 votes
P66 (Batu Gajah) - DAP to win by 17,000 votes
P67 (Kuala Kangsar) - PAS to win by 500 votes (UMNO won)
P68 (Beruas) - DAP to win by 2,500 votes
P69 (Parit) - UMNO to win by 1,500 votes
P70 (Kampar) - DAP to win by 1,000 votes
P71 (Gopeng) - PKR to win by 1,000 votes
P72 (Tapah) - MIC to win by 3,000 votes
P73 (Pasir Salak) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes
P74 (Lumut) - MCA to win by 3,500 votes (PKR won)
P75 (Bagan Datok) - UMNO to win by 1,000 votes
P76 (Telok Intan) - GERAKAN to win by 500 votes (DAP won)
P77 (Tanjong Malim) - MCA to win by 8,000 votes

BN 13-11 PR

The delicate issue would be whether the people of Perak are still angry with the change in state government that happened back in 2009 due to frogs. Will Nizar be MB again if PR manages to win back the state? That will be pretty interesting to see. Parliament level-wise, I predicted a status quo for Perak as compared to 2008 whereby BN also won 13 seats. In terms of state government, I think BN would nick it, justifying their takeover back in 2009 despite the people's protests at the time.

Actual score:
BN 12-12 PR

Total score for 2 states above:
BN 17 - 20 PR (2013)
BN 15 - 22 PR (2008)

Total score after 77 seats:
BN 39 - 38 PR (2013)
BN 31 - 45 PR (2008)

Tight race yes? I've put up comparisons so that you know how the movement is predicted to be for this coming GE. As you can see, it would be 16 seat swing to BN (8 gained by BN, 8 lost by PR) after Perak. In my Part 3, I would cover Pahang, Selangor and KL. Those would be interesting battlegrounds that would shape the urban and rural votes.

Actual score for 2 states above:
BN 15 - 22 PR

Actual total score after 77 seats:
BN 37 - 40 PR

GE 13 prediction (Part 1) - updated with actual

I'm just gonna post my predictions, as I'm lazy to post justifications for each seat as to my predictions (due to time constraints). However, I will provide an overall view to why I predict as such (short and sweet it will be). Besides, they are called predictions, aren't they? It doesn't have to be correct because anything can happen on Election Day and the preceding campaign period leading up to the polls. And I will only be touching on parliamentary results, because that is where most of the power lies (in terms of making policies and even up to determining bus routes!)

Perlis:
P1 (Padang Besar) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes
P2 (Kangar) - UMNO to win by 10,500 votes
P3 (Arau) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes (UMNO won)

BN 2-1 PR

Perlis is an UMNO fortress, but why Arau? Because the PAS candidate has been well-known there and has contested frequently in the past, and he's contesting again this GE. A parliament seat from Perlis at last for PR?

Actual results:
BN 3-0 PR

Kedah:
P4 (Langkawi) - UMNO to win by 6,000 votes
P5 (Jerlun) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes
P6 (Kubang Pasu) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes
P7 (Padang Terap) - UMNO to win by 1,000 votes
P8 (Pokok Sena) - PAS to win by 2,500 votes
P9 (Alor Setar) - PKR to win by 2,000 votes
P10 (Kuala Kedah) - UMNO to win by 3,000 votes (PKR won)
P11 (Pendang) - PAS to win by 3,000 votes (UMNO won)
P12 (Jerai) - PAS to win by 1,000 votes (UMNO won)
P13 (Sik) - UMNO to win by 500 votes
P14 (Merbok) - UMNO to win by 7,500 votes
P15 (Sungai Petani) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes (PKR won)
P16 (Baling) - PAS to win by 4,000 votes (UMNO won)
P17 (Padang Serai) - PKR to win by 1,000 votes
P18 (Kulim Bandar Baharu) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes

BN 9-6 PR

The writings are on the wall for Kedah. The state government, despite its record of being corruption-free during its tenure, was perceived as not doing enough for the people. Some voters would go for split-ticket voting (PR for parliament and BN for state), but to what extent? I assume it's gonna be limited, so expect BN to regain some of its parliament seats lost in 2008 and become the state government once more.

Actual results:
BN 10-5 PR

Kelantan:
P19 (Tumpat) - PAS to win by 5,000 votes
P20 (Pengkalan Chepa) - PAS to win by 8,000 votes
P21 (Kota Bharu) - PAS to win by 6,000 votes
P22 (Pasir Mas) - PAS to win by 4,500 votes
P23 (Rantau Panjang) - PAS to win by 3,000 votes
P24 (Kubang Kerian) - PAS to win by 2,500 votes
P25 (Bachok) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes (PAS won)
P26 (Ketereh) - UMNO to win by 3,500 votes
P27 (Tanah Merah) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes
P28 (Pasir Puteh) - PAS to win by 2,500 votes
P29 (Machang) - UMNO to win by 2,000 votes
P30 (Jeli) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes
P31 (Kuala Krai) - PAS to win by 1,500 votes
P32 (Gua Musang) - UMNO to win by 5,000 votes

BN 6-8 PR

There is no doubt that UMNO has been putting a limitless effort to break PAS's stranglehold in Kelantan for the past 23 years. Their T (Tukar - Change) slogan up against the K (Kekal - Maintain) slogan by PAS. I expect that BN would be able to win back some of the parliament seats, as well as reducing the state government's majority, but PAS should still be able to retain Kelantan, albeit losing their 2/3 majority in the state assembly.

Actual results:
BN 5-9 PR

Terengganu:
P33 (Besut) - UMNO to win by 7,000 votes
P34 (Setiu) - UMNO to win by 5,500 votes
P35 (Kuala Nerus) - PAS to win by 500 votes
P36 (Kuala Terengganu) - PAS to win by 4,500 votes
P37 (Marang) - PAS to win by 1,500 votes
P38 (Hulu Terengganu) - UMNO to win by 10,000 votes
P39 (Dungun) - UMNO to win by 4,000 votes (PAS won)
P40 (Kemaman) - UMNO to win by 10,000 votes

BN 5-3 PR

We have seen extreme swings in Terengganu for the past few elections. 1999 was PAS's year, only for them to be trounced in 2004. In 2008, it was quite status quo whereby BN was able to maintain its stranglehold in Terengganu. It will take quite an effort for PAS to defeat UMNO, though one must consider the effect of Ustaz Azhar Idrus's popularity among the young voters nationwide as he comes from Terengganu. If PAS is able to galvanise this, they might just take Terengganu, but I heavily doubt it would be so. Though, I think PAS might be able to nick Kuala Nerus from UMNO.

Actual results:
BN 4-4 PR

Total score after 40 seats:
BN 22 - 18 PR (2013)
BN 16 - 24 PR (2008)

As you can see, I think BN would be able to claw back some of their lost ground in the 4 states that I mentioned above, as my predictions would mean a swing of 12 seats in favour of BN (6 seats gained by BN, 6 seats lost by PR). I will continue with Part 2 soon.

Actual score after 40 seats:
BN 22 - 18 PR

Apparently the number seats won by BN is right on the dot with my predictions, although I did get a few seats wrong, which I have bracketed the actual result for the seats that I predicted wrongly.