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Sunday, 1 February 2009

Great... Just great... :P

Okay, buying Perak and Selangor State Assemblymen and women from Pakatan Rakyat is not possible. No one is for sale. So, if you can’t buy them, then kill them. And Umno got a certain MIC man who married his boss’s wife after sleeping with her whenever the boss was out of town to do what he is most good at. They wanted PKR men fixed up.

That was easy. He is an expert at fixing up people. He fixed up his boss. He fixed up his boss’s wife who is now his wife. He can fix up PKR men easily enough. He asked to meet two PKR men. He then arranged for his driver to carry a bagful of money to the appointed meeting place with instructions to drop the bag under the table unseen and unnoticed. He did just as he was told.

No sooner had the bagful of money hit the ground when the Anti-Corruption Agency officers rushed in, picked up the bag, and arrested the two PKR men on allegations of corruption. They did not know what hit them. They did not even notice the bagful of money under the table.

These two PKR men are now missing. They have been missing since the last four days and no one knows where they are. But they are not really missing as such. They are safely in the hands of Umno. And Umno wants them to agree to a deal. Accept RM10 million each and cross over to Umno or else go to jail on corruption charges -- the same deal they offered me and which I declined and which resulted in my detention under the Internal Security Act on 12 September 2008.

(Malaysia-Today, Corridors of Power)

Those 2 PKR MPs were set-up. They were trapped. They didn't know what hit them. It's either they crossover or they go to jail. A Catch-22 situation. Even if the 2 chose defection, PR will still be in charge of Perak. Thanks to the Bota man. If they choose jail, there would be two by-elections in Perak. A chance for PR to regain their stranglehold of Perak and further humiliate the reputation of Najib as incoming PM. If the 2 MPs were bought over, BN would face a snap elections in Perak. To see whether the influence of PR is increasing or not. If PR manage to win more seats than they did in March 2008, then Najib's reputation will take a nosedive.

So, the situation now is... is it a catch-22 situation for the 2 MPs, or is it a catch-22 situation for Najib? From what I see, it can go both ways. Let's do the calculation of probability.

For the MPs, they have a 50:50 chance of defection or jail. While Najib has an equal 1/3 chance for 2 by-elections to happen (if the 2 MPs go to jail), a snap election (if the 2 MPs defect), or status quo (if he released the 2 MPs without any harm).

In my opinion, the best chance for the People's Alliance to exert their influence is when the 2 MPs defect. Once the both of them defect, there is a high possibility that Nizar Jamaluddin (Perak MB) will call for a snap election in Perak, to see whether the support for PR in Perak is increasing or not. If increasing is the case, then PR would be able to secure more seats for ADUN and Parliament. If not, PR would lose Perak for sure. This would go either way.

In Najib's case, his best chance is to maintain status quo. If he releases the 2 MPs without any harm done, then there won't be much movement in politics and his reputation would be unaffected. However, if he bought the 2 MPs over, he would risk a snap election by Nizar Jamaluddin, in which case BN could lose more seats than they have in ADUN or Parliament. If the 2 MPs chose jail instead, he would then face 2 by-elections. As we know, PKR won both places during the GE2008. So, the chances of wrestling the seat is slim. Whoever contests there from PR would win there. Therefore, Najib would be back to square one and thus, his reputation battered if PR win the 2 by-elections.

Although mathematically, the Parliament seats would still be the same, more and more people will doubt Najib's credibility as incoming PM and tsunami of change would gain more steam.

SO, LET ME REITERATE MY QUESTION AGAIN.

Is it a catch-22 situation for the 2 MPs, or is it a catch-22 situation for Najib?

2 comments:

Averlance Lighthawk said...

Hm...this is interesting...

Where did you get this story from?

Ahmad Syafiq said...

Malaysia Today (it's written there in my post)

I took part of the story for quoting and then I made an analysis of probability in politics. Useful for your probability topics in Maths. Haha